MLB · resolved market
New York Yankees vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1a8ba1bd1237c77998a973d628f5d8a4b39c4903021c24df9643e47799487473
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,322
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,287
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,322 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 34c | 625.66$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.12 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 46c | 563.63$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.5 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 54c | 555.55$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 68c | 387$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.78 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Over | 31c | 308.18$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.54 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaab4…5a40backed Over | 22c | 231.58$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 162 | 51.9%84 W · 78 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 69c | 230.09$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.33 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 43c | 198.8$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.25 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 61c | 188.06$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.32 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Over | 53c | 186.06$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.61 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 47c | 181.06$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.96 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 60c | 167.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.04 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88ed…8300backed Under | 56c | 151.03$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.03 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…3a3fbacked Over | 38c | 112.5$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.75 | 116 | 37.9%44 W · 72 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 67c | 79$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.95 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Under | 68c | 78.97$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.57 | 430 | 43%185 W · 245 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x964e…36cfbacked Over | 45c | 77.78$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x523c…2c05backed Under | 62c | 70$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.7 | 130 | 53.1%69 W · 61 L | -11.0wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 50c | 63$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 44c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 50c | 57$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 44c | 56.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96d4…b8d0backed Over | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 68c | 47.08$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.07 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 33c | 39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 67c | 38.55$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.85 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Under | 52c | 34.4$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.51 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Under | 55c | 25.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Under | 51c | 24.89$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Under | 51c | 24.72$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.11 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 79c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x08be…bea8backed Under | 68c | 17.65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 60 | 66.7%40 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Yankees vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5this page
- New York Yankees vs. AthleticsAthletics won
- New York Yankees vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Athletics: O/U 6.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Athletics: O/U 7.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: Athletics (-3.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)Athletics won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)Athletics won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5)Athletics won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-4.5)Athletics won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. AthleticsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.