MLB · resolved market
New York Yankees vs. Athletics: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8aa5efae6c6eab80e71718fbb11fdda64e0c438b0b47400e66fea7e58960a716
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,226
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,456
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,226 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 53c | 9,366$4,997 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,369.11 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 49c | 8,050$3,920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,920.34 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 53c | 4,787$2,517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,516.52 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c14…68f3backed Under | 5c | 4,271$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.42 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5e…7004backed Over | 61c | 3,052$1,863 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,189.32 | 217 | 67.7%147 W · 70 L | +36.1wins | +0.17per pick | 51cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 40c | 3,029$1,212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,817.56 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 38c | 2,540$971 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$970.58 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3db8…ae96backed Under | 46c | 2,152$990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$989.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Over | 53c | 2,138$1,133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,004.74 | 595 | 49.7%296 W · 299 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 38c | 1,415$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534.43 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 69c | 1,345$930 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.28 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 46c | 1,135$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$612.69 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Over | 62c | 1,026$636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.88 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Over | 40c | 587.8$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.68 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 43c | 583.99$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.56 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbc9…d80bbacked Over | 61c | 583.8$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.33 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 32c | 539.84$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.05 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfd…b845backed Over | 70c | 500$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 268 | 60.4%162 W · 106 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…92c3backed Over | 46c | 463.12$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.64 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +102.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 39c | 434.01$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.17 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Under | 47c | 418.98$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.92 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Under | 47c | 364.8$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.46 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 65c | 338.46$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 191 | 53.9%103 W · 88 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Under | 47c | 338.06$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.89 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Under | 35c | 324.14$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.87 | 430 | 43%185 W · 245 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 59c | 292.5$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.52 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 45c | 267.32$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.2 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Over | 32c | 253.37$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.51 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 73c | 251.22$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.41 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed Under | 47c | 209.49$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.46 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1980…3340backed Under | 47c | 186.4$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.61 | 324 | 50.9%165 W · 159 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 32c | 185.74$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.8 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Under | 32c | 180.16$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.1 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 46c | 170.97$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.09 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2712…eb71backed Under | 11c | 163.12$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f67…aef7backed Under | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15d1…f579backed Under | 66c | 134$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.39 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 39c | 105.47$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.61 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 58c | 94.17$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.55 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab4…5a40backed Over | 37c | 81.92$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.92 | 162 | 51.9%84 W · 78 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde1b…5710backed Under | 47c | 62.81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.52 | 101 | 45.5%46 W · 55 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Under | 37c | 59.52$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.02 | 116 | 48.3%56 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f25…4f11backed Under | 73c | 41.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.65 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Under | 45c | 40.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 694 | 47.6%330 W · 364 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9883…1d31backed Under | 64c | 38.04$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.35 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd030…f3f0backed Under | 47c | 31.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 119 | 46.2%55 W · 64 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 42c | 31.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Under | 45c | 29.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 558 | 47.7%266 W · 292 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff2a…bfefbacked Over | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 313 | 43.5%136 W · 177 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…abe3backed Over | 80c | 27.75$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 351 | 49.3%173 W · 178 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25b5…6d67backed Over | 60c | 18.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.17 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…822dbacked Over | 61c | 16.84$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6d…2671backed Over | 64c | 16.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 383 | 52.2%200 W · 183 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Yankees vs. Athletics: O/U 7.5this page
- New York Yankees vs. AthleticsAthletics won
- New York Yankees vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Athletics: O/U 6.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: Athletics (-3.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)Athletics won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)Athletics won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5)Athletics won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-4.5)Athletics won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. AthleticsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.