MLB · resolved market
New York Yankees vs. Athletics: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7e8b158f3ed1708a725a45a999c211c9da2952c33a03a0e93e60cbe854f4d72c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,312
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,462
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,312 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 55c | 7,552$4,139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,413.1 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 44c | 3,198$1,408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,407.67 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 45c | 2,703$1,220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,220.31 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x354b…4744backed Under | 45c | 1,333$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x762e…4bf0backed Under | 42c | 1,144$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.12 | 248 | 52.4%130 W · 118 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 62c | 713.88$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.96 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9034…f7dfbacked Over | 67c | 499.99$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 211 | 49.3%104 W · 107 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 53c | 355.06$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.08 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 43c | 234$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.62 | 999 | 24.6%246 W · 753 L | -70.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2534…3484backed Under | 33c | 227.27$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 47cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Over | 52c | 218.99$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.29 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x823d…8091backed Under | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6498…8910backed Over | 59c | 188$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.68 | 517 | 56.5%292 W · 225 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 65c | 180$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.9 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Under | 46c | 178$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.88 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…92c3backed Over | 53c | 151.35$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.35 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +102.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 47c | 138.3$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 191 | 53.9%103 W · 88 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 27c | 133$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.79 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f2…bb1dbacked Under | 59c | 118.64$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Over | 54c | 113.83$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.36 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 68c | 101.07$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.44 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 24c | 93.09$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Under | 22c | 75.05$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 674 | 44.1%297 W · 377 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Under | 23c | 70$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | -13.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0011…4cbabacked Over | 72c | 55.7$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.67 | 309 | 63.1%195 W · 114 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff2a…bfefbacked Under | 35c | 42.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 313 | 43.5%136 W · 177 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffc9…bf01backed Under | 46c | 42.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 191 | 55.5%106 W · 85 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Over | 58c | 37.79$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.99 | 694 | 47.6%330 W · 364 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Under | 41c | 29.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 582 | 54.3%316 W · 266 L | +16.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf3…70e3backed Over | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 140 | 57.9%81 W · 59 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3603…22edbacked Over | 58c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 518 | 49.4%256 W · 262 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff68…8379backed Over | 66c | 24.31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 269 | 40.5%109 W · 160 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x976e…8453backed Over | 79c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 162 | 74.1%120 W · 42 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 68cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 46c | 23.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Yankees vs. Athletics: O/U 6.5this page
- New York Yankees vs. AthleticsAthletics won
- New York Yankees vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Athletics: O/U 7.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: Athletics (-3.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)Athletics won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)Athletics won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5)Athletics won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-4.5)Athletics won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. AthleticsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.