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MLB · resolved market

New York Yankees vs. Athletics

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Athleticsof New York Yankees, Athletics
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$846,920
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$832,069

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $846,920 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 502 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1136…0c2ebacked Athletics41c90,365$37,049 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53,315.1213340.6%54 W · 79 L-14.4wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-21.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed New York Yankees57c69,042$39,662 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39,661.74,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed New York Yankees9c50,129$4,327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,326.578,45147.9%4,048 W · 4,403 L+81.3wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Athletics48c47,805$22,919 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,885.682,29348.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L-24.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf152…64aabacked New York Yankees58c37,190$21,570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,569.9477153.8%415 W · 356 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a88…41ccbacked Athletics41c33,982$13,933 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,049.6138148.6%185 W · 196 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed New York Yankees0c29,971$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.2840629.1%118 W · 288 L-2.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid-42.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed New York Yankees31c26,136$8,209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,208.8298045%441 W · 539 L-14.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-22.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6d6…be17backed New York Yankees59c25,415$14,995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,994.912040%8 W · 12 L-2.8wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-24.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8b88…8f33backed New York Yankees59c25,000$14,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,75044851.6%231 W · 217 L+0.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Athletics60c21,418$12,803 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,615.841,69250.2%849 W · 843 L-21.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked New York Yankees0c18,845$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.5914924.2%36 W · 113 L-0.4wins0.00per pick24cpaid+5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67ac…edf1backed New York Yankees43c17,667$7,657 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,656.524564.4%29 W · 16 L+3.1wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked New York Yankees59c17,438$10,288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,288.421,38148.1%664 W · 717 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x26b4…b8a9backed Athletics56c15,510$8,612 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,897.8844754.8%245 W · 202 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32b4…8b21backed New York Yankees45c15,246$6,809 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,809.0963043.3%273 W · 357 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-16.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3fc0…847dbacked New York Yankees40c15,000$5,970 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,969.957042.9%30 W · 40 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked Athletics55c14,206$7,755 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,451.113,10748.1%1,495 W · 1,612 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed New York Yankees26c12,229$3,143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,143.2311,05451.5%5,694 W · 5,360 L+137.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked New York Yankees39c11,032$4,267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,267.0711,60652.8%6,131 W · 5,475 L+210.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc1fa…9611backed New York Yankees0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103040%12 W · 18 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-15.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaba5…4e0ebacked New York Yankees60c9,296$5,555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,55517460.9%106 W · 68 L+8.2wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+9.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Athletics41c8,349$3,423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,925.661,41548.9%692 W · 723 L-10.2wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5482…b6eebacked New York Yankees0c8,238$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.748762.9%25 W · 851 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick2cpaid+19.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7634…600dbacked Athletics59c8,000$4,720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,279.9960350.1%302 W · 301 L-10.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Athletics66c7,427$4,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,527.421,45642.7%622 W · 834 L-39.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-24.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Athletics70c7,259$5,099 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,160.411,01444.8%454 W · 560 L-22.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-17.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc08…a137backed New York Yankees37c6,453$2,385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,385.1732158.6%188 W · 133 L+27.1wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+17.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x30ae…4318backed New York Yankees40c6,000$2,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,399.989862.2%61 W · 37 L-6.3wins-0.06per pick69cpaid-13%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa538…12c3backed Athletics57c5,500$3,135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,3651435.7%5 W · 9 L-2.8wins-0.20per pick55cpaid-42.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed New York Yankees42c5,174$2,168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,168.499,86246.4%4,579 W · 5,283 L+40.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa676…a4c5backed New York Yankees1c5,000$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.56936.2%25 W · 44 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+41.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7bec…07a8backed New York Yankees33c5,000$1,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,65024946.2%115 W · 134 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-12.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x066e…ceb2backed New York Yankees52c4,938$2,585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,584.9625240.1%101 W · 151 L+0.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid-8.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d32…9dfcbacked New York Yankees6c4,203$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc589…0bd6backed Athletics77c3,896$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$896.13100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+64.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Athletics41c3,801$1,558 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,242.556349.2%31 W · 32 L-0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60ba…3c6cbacked Athletics41c3,800$1,558 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,2426650%33 W · 33 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f5b…e747backed Athletics41c3,800$1,558 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,2426050%30 W · 30 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1418…6fefbacked Athletics41c3,800$1,558 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,241.986645.5%30 W · 36 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed New York Yankees36c3,513$1,255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,255.0812,32846.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L-66.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3c7…d601backed New York Yankees29c3,435$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010750.5%54 W · 53 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb946…2671backed Athletics41c3,324$1,363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,961.3424150.6%122 W · 119 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked New York Yankees59c3,250$1,918 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,917.731,53751.2%787 W · 750 L+9.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x551c…fe91backed New York Yankees43c3,190$1,364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,363.781,21855.6%677 W · 541 L+94.9wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+13.4%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xd735…968ebacked New York Yankees55c3,127$1,720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,720560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+44.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4379…2e16backed Athletics41c3,000$1,230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,77077951.1%398 W · 381 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebe6…9278backed Athletics41c3,000$1,230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,769.992,10451.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L+11.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x34b8…81afbacked Athletics67c2,976$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$976.47751.9%40 W · 37 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Athletics49c2,922$1,421 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,500.235,23556.8%2,972 W · 2,263 L+130.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed New York Yankees35c2,916$1,014 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,013.552,06439.2%810 W · 1,254 L-29.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-14.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b8f…449bbacked Athletics59c2,714$1,610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,104.294957.1%28 W · 21 L-3.6wins-0.07per pick65cpaid-15.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5453…65cebacked New York Yankees37c2,690$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00011848.3%57 W · 61 L+0.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked New York Yankees37c2,687$986 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$986.278,25146.3%3,820 W · 4,431 L+41.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6fba…26dcbacked New York Yankees59c2,547$1,503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,502.7323152.8%122 W · 109 L-8.2wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-6.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbcb8…3058backed New York Yankees34c2,195$748 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$747.7717354.9%95 W · 78 L-14.0wins-0.08per pick63cpaid-13.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x222b…1a8dbacked New York Yankees35c2,080$736 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$736.2479147.9%379 W · 412 L+3.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe53f…62d7backed New York Yankees54c2,054$1,102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,102.4721146.4%98 W · 113 L+13.0wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+15.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8e35…fe8cbacked New York Yankees59c2,020$1,192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1925540%22 W · 33 L-9.2wins-0.17per pick57cpaid-31.2%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed New York Yankees43c1,967$838 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$837.661,51039%589 W · 921 L-16.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d5e…7004backed Athletics76c1,951$1,475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$475.5621767.7%147 W · 70 L+36.1wins+0.17per pick51cpaid+27.7%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Athletics52c1,900$984 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$915.881,10648.7%539 W · 567 L+0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6982…a165backed Athletics54c1,852$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$851.852352.2%12 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-20.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed New York Yankees59c1,816$1,066 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,065.861,34547.7%642 W · 703 L+10.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce9d…3c05backed New York Yankees53c1,611$850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85019153.9%103 W · 88 L-6.6wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x986c…3180backed Athletics41c1,585$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$934.8752547.4%249 W · 276 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked New York Yankees4c1,512$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.384,42845.1%1,996 W · 2,432 L+87.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7dfd…b845backed New York Yankees59c1,500$885 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88526860.4%162 W · 106 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6498…8910backed New York Yankees43c1,500$645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64551756.5%292 W · 225 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd2a…315ebacked New York Yankees3c1,500$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.263839.5%15 W · 23 L+0.2wins0.00per pick39cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32cc…bb62backed New York Yankees55c1,463$804 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$804.516543%71 W · 94 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc9f…905bbacked New York Yankees44c1,374$599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$598.9236729.4%108 W · 259 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6027…4320backed New York Yankees61c1,374$838 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$837.985449.3%421 W · 433 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2117…5c26backed New York Yankees59c1,345$791 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$791.4345853.7%246 W · 212 L+6.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Athletics58c1,257$735 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$522.051,53059.4%909 W · 621 L+82.7wins+0.05per pick54cpaid-1.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2f0b…5577backed New York Yankees59c1,249$737 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73729649.7%147 W · 149 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeaac…d71dbacked Athletics41c1,220$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$719.5120848.1%100 W · 108 L-0.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x677d…53f0backed New York Yankees59c1,102$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$650757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Athletics48c1,062$509 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$552.836,12855.4%3,394 W · 2,734 L+347.5wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd52d…412dbacked New York Yankees55c1,033$568 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$567.896558.5%38 W · 27 L+4.0wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaabb…5554backed Athletics41c1,001$410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$590.595653.6%30 W · 26 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Athletics41c999.99$410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59062447.6%297 W · 327 L-2.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8aa6…83f9backed New York Yankees55c999.99$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$549.9919248.4%93 W · 99 L-0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfdf…8e02backed Athletics41c999.99$410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$589.9915942.1%67 W · 92 L-7.0wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-2.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc3df…9945backed Athletics60c998.37$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$398.376467.2%43 W · 21 L+6.3wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+19.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd3d3…bb8ebacked New York Yankees49c992$485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$485.287851.3%40 W · 38 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc313…e128backed New York Yankees26c984.76$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.437941.2%156 W · 223 L+10.1wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-0.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked New York Yankees13c967.78$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.532,20350.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L+29.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked New York Yankees45c967.15$431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431.0746239.6%183 W · 279 L-17.5wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-25.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Athletics52c904.28$468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$436.071,21547.6%578 W · 637 L-19.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed New York Yankees40c903.66$358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358.384,52448.9%2,214 W · 2,310 L-42.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93ac…2761backed Athletics47c884.63$416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$468.252,59361.5%1,595 W · 998 L+73.8wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x73ff…0facbacked New York Yankees59c847.46$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50012575.2%94 W · 31 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick70cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7511…dea8backed New York Yankees59c847.46$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5004537.8%17 W · 28 L-4.4wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-21.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8c73…6dafbacked New York Yankees59c847.46$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5005468.5%37 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick69cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcba5…cd88backed New York Yankees59c840$496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$495.666250.2%332 W · 330 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x059d…10e3backed New York Yankees55c833.97$462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$461.7524646.7%115 W · 131 L-0.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe292…84b8backed Athletics40c830$331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$498.91,42343.6%620 W · 803 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8c4…395dbacked Athletics42c822$345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$476.7671853.3%383 W · 335 L+12.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2714…960fbacked New York Yankees59c800$472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47285952.6%452 W · 407 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.