MLB · resolved market
New York Yankees vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x06424d20c2bfc4f7a5c7c2ff272e64882fef8320e497549b2dc1dfb3df9c4d2c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $72,927
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $72,908
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $72,927 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Under | 40c | 36,882$14,914 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,913.94 | 436 | 47%205 W · 231 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 55c | 28,763$15,831 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,932.14 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xceb1…bd4fbacked Under | 3c | 7,500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 49 | 8.2%4 W · 45 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | +173.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd19…3fb8backed Under | 3c | 6,377$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.32 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 5cpaid | +88.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Over | 61c | 2,050$1,251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$799.5 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5e…7004backed Over | 34c | 1,600$544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,056.34 | 217 | 67.7%147 W · 70 L | +36.1wins | +0.17per pick | 51cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 51c | 1,579$803 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$775.92 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 65c | 1,512$989 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$988.66 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 60c | 1,388$831 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$557.22 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 41c | 1,037$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$611.93 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6498…8910backed Over | 56c | 1,000$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440 | 517 | 56.5%292 W · 225 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 41c | 837.86$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.66 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 44c | 790.48$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.59 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Over | 62c | 771.97$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.9 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 59c | 559$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.19 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 38c | 556.99$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.33 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 58c | 550.3$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.87 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf3f…1365backed Under | 71c | 352.11$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 151 | 59.6%90 W · 61 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 47c | 330$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.3 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Over | 41c | 316$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.44 | 570 | 46.8%267 W · 303 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Under | 37c | 309.05$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.35 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfd…b845backed Over | 63c | 300$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111 | 268 | 60.4%162 W · 106 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 60c | 299$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.6 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 41c | 270.34$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.53 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 27c | 238.55$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.24 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf6…d7f7backed Over | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.27 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae9f…4967backed Under | 58c | 220.98$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.17 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -3.2wins | -0.24per pick | 55cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 41c | 184$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.67 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Under | 56c | 182.71$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.74 | 430 | 43%185 W · 245 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Under | 62c | 159.5$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.89 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed Under | 62c | 159.47$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.87 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2712…eb71backed Under | 9c | 148.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Over | 59c | 127.12$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.12 | 399 | 48.1%192 W · 207 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Over | 37c | 125.02$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.27 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6210…4fb1backed Under | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 147 | 59.9%88 W · 59 L | +14.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 61c | 120$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.8 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Over | 41c | 118.48$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.47 | 701 | 54.2%380 W · 321 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Over | 57c | 100.02$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.35 | 873 | 52.7%460 W · 413 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 54c | 99.97$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.26 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 33c | 85$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.9 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Over | 71c | 81.5$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.34 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce5f…ab17backed Under | 26c | 80$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 353 | 41.1%145 W · 208 L | -16.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61d3…189abacked Over | 41c | 61.85$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.49 | 238 | 54.2%129 W · 109 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5e…95e3backed Over | 41c | 61.85$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.49 | 267 | 52.8%141 W · 126 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Over | 36c | 59.2$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.89 | 595 | 49.7%296 W · 299 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Over | 60c | 38.17$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 390 | 53.6%209 W · 181 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Under | 64c | 36$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 558 | 47.7%266 W · 292 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 62c | 32.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd030…f3f0backed Under | 62c | 23.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 119 | 46.2%55 W · 64 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde1b…5710backed Under | 62c | 23.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 101 | 45.5%46 W · 55 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xceb4…c08dbacked Under | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe068…c5eabacked Under | 63c | 15.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -7.8wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5587…6d07backed Under | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 516 | 56.6%292 W · 224 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8263…e0f1backed Under | 70c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 347 | 54.8%190 W · 157 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Yankees vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5this page
- New York Yankees vs. AthleticsAthletics won
- New York Yankees vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Athletics: O/U 6.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Athletics: O/U 7.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: Athletics (-3.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)Athletics won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)Athletics won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5)Athletics won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-4.5)Athletics won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. AthleticsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.