Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 40°C on July 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1a8c4b42e20c7bf4bec85800c89196dcb581dea79587f7b3a698119b36035610
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,861
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,420
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,861 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 16c | 767.23$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$643.76 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 13c | 759.88$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$657.65 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 77c | 557.77$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.85 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 32c | 518.36$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.86 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 70c | 267.42$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.01 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 5c | 263.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 10c | 257$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.86 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 69c | 232.18$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.14 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 77c | 232.12$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.78 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 49c | 231.04$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.31 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 15c | 225.2$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.38 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 19c | 217.46$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.63 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 60c | 163.5$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.58 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadb9…8326backed Yes | 53c | 155.98$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.31 | 146 | 45.9%67 W · 79 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0d0…1db9backed Yes | 13c | 142.59$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.71 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +87.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 65c | 131.81$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.07 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 31c | 129.39$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.13 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 43c | 127.41$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.48 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a00…8333backed Yes | 9c | 122.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.84 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 11c | 118.35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.59 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ab…6412backed Yes | 51c | 100.36$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.27 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 79c | 98$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.76 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…262dbacked Yes | 24c | 97.12$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.74 | 252 | 30.6%77 W · 175 L | +21.0wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 66c | 87.57$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.48 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3784…1f34backed Yes | 69c | 81.95$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.57 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 48c | 81.59$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.45 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3910…ba74backed Yes | 38c | 79.44$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.44 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b61…0a2abacked Yes | 14c | 72.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +73.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 62c | 71.02$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.71 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9568…96afbacked No | 48c | 59.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.61 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31b1…11d2backed Yes | 38c | 56.94$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.45 | 105 | 53.3%56 W · 49 L | +15.0wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 56c | 51.74$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.18 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc1c…545abacked Yes | 35c | 50.16$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.67 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 65c | 47.84$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.16 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 54c | 45.02$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.11 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 42c | 44.22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd6cd…eaecbacked Yes | 45c | 44.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.04 | 146 | 60.3%88 W · 58 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 47c | 42.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.79 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02e2…701abacked Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.9 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 30c | 38.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.85 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 27c | 37.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.23 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 34c | 37.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.65 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 37c | 37.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.43 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked No | 67c | 34.76$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cb…af17backed Yes | 38c | 33.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.87 | 84 | 42.9%36 W · 48 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 75c | 32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed No | 64c | 29.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa595…cdf1backed Yes | 70c | 27.21$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 76c | 21.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 49c | 21.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 20.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked No | 62c | 16.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 40°C on July 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 36°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 37°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 38°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 39°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 41°C on July 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.