Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 39°C on July 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa1ec8116ac623e0abd3e82a7d465ac91f6d90ad14c04fd501c20cdb911dc3191
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,423
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,812
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,423 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 106 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 1c | 3,156$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.56 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 58c | 1,180$687 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.01 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 37c | 922.32$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.87 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 31c | 829.38$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.65 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 51c | 570.25$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.38 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 44c | 335.04$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.26 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 70c | 326.68$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.52 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 18c | 257.42$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.96 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 39c | 247.08$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.27 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 54c | 228.63$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.06 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 36c | 224.7$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3784…1f34backed Yes | 67c | 203.5$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.73 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 16c | 201.42$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…fa40backed Yes | 46c | 199.07$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.37 | 190 | 42.6%81 W · 109 L | -11.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 40c | 185.93$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.64 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 42c | 180$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.3 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd06…b333backed Yes | 67c | 166.69$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.27 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 54c | 153.74$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.29 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 69c | 153.32$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.71 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62d3…e694backed Yes | 74c | 152.61$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.68 | 161 | 35.4%57 W · 104 L | -12.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 40c | 150.55$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0d0…1db9backed Yes | 43c | 134.89$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +87.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26cb…a394backed No | 68c | 118.26$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 124 | 37.1%46 W · 78 L | -17.5wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 61c | 115.84$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.16 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe2…f54abacked No | 69c | 115.14$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 107 | 44.9%48 W · 59 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 42c | 114.16$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.22 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17d2…4142backed No | 68c | 112.5$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 59c | 110$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.9 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 51c | 102$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.98 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 59c | 101.69$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.69 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 38c | 100.41$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.01 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 72c | 96.93$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.93 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 67c | 94.81$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.44 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 43c | 89.73$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.46 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8e…cfaabacked Yes | 50c | 89.72$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.81 | 190 | 39.5%75 W · 115 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 58c | 86.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe53…99a6backed No | 54c | 85.04$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.32 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +21%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 71c | 80$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.58 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a338backed No | 29c | 77.46$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.14 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +29.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 58c | 70.03$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.62 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 59c | 69.29$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.39 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 61c | 67.38$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.98 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 49c | 66$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.34 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked Yes | 35c | 65.8$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.74 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 47c | 64$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.73 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 30c | 63.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.58 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9568…96afbacked Yes | 37c | 63.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 55c | 61.51$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.63 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 31c | 60.02$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 45c | 58.98$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.44 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadb9…8326backed No | 40c | 57.7$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.86 | 146 | 45.9%67 W · 79 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2467…2650backed Yes | 68c | 57.09$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.65 | 88 | 77.3%68 W · 20 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4cef…d85bbacked Yes | 68c | 56.81$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.9 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1907…ac1abacked Yes | 61c | 55.55$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.07 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 47c | 54.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.44 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 29c | 52.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.02 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 41c | 51.74$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.73 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.95 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 65c | 48.5$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.18 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 32c | 44.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 52c | 44.07$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.15 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd73…3cc0backed No | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 69 | 68.1%47 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…ba9abacked No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 287 | 62.4%179 W · 108 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 60c | 39.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 68c | 39.69$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.52 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f0…835cbacked Yes | 80c | 37.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 109 | 37.6%41 W · 68 L | -9.6wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 67c | 37.41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.44 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…262dbacked No | 35c | 37.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.25 | 252 | 30.6%77 W · 175 L | +21.0wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe39f…c040backed Yes | 65c | 36$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 148 | 32.4%48 W · 100 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 39c | 33.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 51c | 33.61$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfab1…e45bbacked Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…6ff8backed No | 53c | 28.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 193 | 45.6%88 W · 105 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 60c | 27.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 71c | 26.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed No | 76c | 26.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.34 | 213 | 70.9%151 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b36…0d4bbacked Yes | 76c | 26.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 59c | 26.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed No | 52c | 26.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 60c | 25.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc14b…a589backed No | 62c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fd…53dfbacked Yes | 59c | 24.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1dc…48fabacked Yes | 46c | 22.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | -10.6wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 53c | 20.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…5961backed No | 65c | 20.45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +8.2wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 57c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee02…ce88backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 107 | 64.5%69 W · 38 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…a722backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa434…cf75backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eec…c8edbacked No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 197 | 69.5%137 W · 60 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c6…d465backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb814…dd31backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 111 | 54.1%60 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8752…31b6backed Yes | 56c | 19.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c3e…3865backed Yes | 65c | 19.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 91 | 76.9%70 W · 21 L | +9.6wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 39°C on July 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 36°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 37°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 38°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 40°C on July 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 41°C on July 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.