Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on June 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1adac2287582fff846ce895d35eaacaf8692a6603de03872e324ce3e8854d12f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,633
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,733
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,633 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 16c | 1,596$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.31 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 75c | 472.7$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.34 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe693…dd17backed Yes | 26c | 444.5$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.21 | 278 | 41%114 W · 164 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd41c…4859backed Yes | 69c | 421.43$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 74cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd75d…00c8backed Yes | 10c | 380.25$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 301 | 44.9%135 W · 166 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 48c | 370.86$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.62 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c95…8188backed No | 78c | 328.54$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.32 | 91 | 22%20 W · 71 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | +359.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 19c | 327.01$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.25 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 19c | 298.89$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.68 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 14c | 291.86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.45 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 76c | 268.27$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.99 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 8c | 246.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 14c | 234.13$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.69 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 12c | 214.47$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 12c | 205.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.25 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…44f0backed Yes | 45c | 205.32$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.64 | 191 | 48.2%92 W · 99 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 22c | 203.36$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.74 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb427…4c62backed Yes | 21c | 201.09$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.57 | 223 | 50.7%113 W · 110 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 72c | 194.38$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.88 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 77c | 191.96$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.42 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb8…7c99backed Yes | 21c | 183.95$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.71 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 12c | 176$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf57d…f322backed Yes | 31c | 150.15$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 255 | 19.2%49 W · 206 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 19c | 148.37$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.47 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 19c | 142.73$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.02 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 44c | 142.06$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.66 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe00f…abd9backed Yes | 27c | 142$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.75 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 16c | 132.56$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb501…9a53backed Yes | 15c | 119.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 19c | 105$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 14c | 104.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 16c | 103$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 42c | 99.41$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.13 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 19c | 86.51$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 14c | 82.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 79c | 78.78$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.42 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 74c | 78.03$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.92 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 19c | 75.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked Yes | 19c | 66.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 76c | 64.41$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.76 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 76c | 60.07$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.33 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 35c | 57.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 53c | 51$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.77 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec21…c83fbacked No | 79c | 50.36$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 71 | 66.2%47 W · 24 L | -8.2wins | -0.12per pick | 78cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc6cd…f8a1backed Yes | 26c | 50.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 42c | 45.59$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.34 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 77c | 43.1$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed No | 79c | 41.02$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f81…7ce2backed No | 70c | 38.07$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 51c | 37.45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.21 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7a…3e93backed Yes | 56c | 34.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 72c | 29.24$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 69c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b62…e627backed No | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 56c | 24.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 78c | 24.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xede4…1c40backed No | 80c | 20.58$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.12 | 153 | 69.9%107 W · 46 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 74cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10a1…7a23backed No | 79c | 19.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.12 | 33 | 84.8%28 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 79cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 71c | 16.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on June 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on June 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on June 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.