TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on June 13?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$15,308
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$15,572

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,308 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 117 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes55c2,461$1,358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,102.6531043.2%134 W · 176 L+9.9wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc426…ac6ebacked No47c744.18$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.5714646.6%68 W · 78 L-7.9wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-12.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No45c472.9$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.625,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No62c454.33$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.468,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed No46c443.03$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.8728737.6%108 W · 179 L-13.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-15.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No36c424.46$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.511,58661.9%982 W · 604 L+20.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x019c…e8d2backed No48c360$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17156543.5%246 W · 319 L-31.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No59c308$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.685,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No29c286.1$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.281,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75d3…3f0ebacked No42c281.93$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.0220958.4%122 W · 87 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No25c277.63$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.643,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3489…7fffbacked No49c245$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.56850%4 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+40.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb501…9a53backed Yes42c239.65$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.8117536%63 W · 112 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe45e…fcb8backed Yes60c198.79$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.5611343.4%49 W · 64 L-0.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No43c186.61$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.066,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes35c186.32$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.4317,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No37c170.2$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.0612,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes39c135.37$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.5910,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2d0f…81aabacked Yes71c130$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.7527079.3%214 W · 56 L+52.5wins+0.19per pick60cpaid+30.3%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No44c129$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.344,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes38c128.53$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.41,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x420c…1f36backed Yes42c127$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.9329835.2%105 W · 193 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No44c119.15$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.887,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xca07…6269backed No42c116.79$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.0571649.4%354 W · 362 L-18.9wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes69c116.6$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.631943.3%138 W · 181 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes65c113.15$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.1681234.1%277 W · 535 L+56.9wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0996…598dbacked No39c105$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.9548743.7%213 W · 274 L-9.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6e2…7d4fbacked No43c103.85$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.7948523.7%115 W · 370 L-18.3wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No37c100$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd90e…03b6backed No46c100$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$461,14849.6%569 W · 579 L-34.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3c11…33c9backed No39c100$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.989661.7%553 W · 343 L+15.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe4f9…9ab0backed Yes56c99.22$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.1113838.4%53 W · 85 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-21.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes37c95.4$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.18,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes45c90.29$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.394,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No51c89.03$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.819,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe0d1…b755backed No41c85$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.4320%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4174…18fabacked No49c84.9$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.411,07961.2%660 W · 419 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No26c83.88$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.792,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9819…fe16backed Yes49c82.14$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.147949.4%39 W · 40 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-21.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No54c81.58$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.054,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No34c77.72$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.422,30226.9%620 W · 1,682 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8827…5d62backed No43c76.63$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.71,77250.5%895 W · 877 L+43.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x784a…06c3backed Yes37c76.5$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.534050.6%172 W · 168 L-10.0wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes69c75.17$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.946,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x570c…91c5backed No26c74.75$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4771159.2%421 W · 290 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec86…60e4backed Yes42c73.93$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.521,16338.2%444 W · 719 L+19.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked No35c73.08$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.222,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x170b…4737backed No46c68.47$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.5880957.6%466 W · 343 L-19.4wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No51c66$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.663,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f42…adbebacked Yes62c65.66$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.664158.5%24 W · 17 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea5e…a678backed No31c65$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.191,21842%512 W · 706 L+31.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xebe0…52dcbacked Yes70c63.33$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194738.3%18 W · 29 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes39c62$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.822,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec0a…71dabacked Yes57c61.54$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.6211343.4%49 W · 64 L-6.4wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-11.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No38c61$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.183,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x351a…f836backed Yes44c60$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.628649.3%141 W · 145 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes59c60$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.63,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No47c60$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.93,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ff1…e002backed Yes61c60$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.46163.9%39 W · 22 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb427…4c62backed Yes44c58.92$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.0322350.7%113 W · 110 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcca3…7450backed Yes51c58$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.5242643.2%184 W · 242 L+9.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4fd9…a49ebacked No52c58$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.163435.3%12 W · 22 L-5.4wins-0.16per pick51cpaid-31.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1bf7…40c0backed No49c58$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.5280050.1%401 W · 399 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf745…bf49backed Yes35c54.66$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.536237.1%23 W · 39 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No57c54.3$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.852,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x49c4…db5bbacked No37c54.05$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201,27536.5%465 W · 810 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x10ab…b2e8backed Yes40c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$307040%28 W · 42 L-5.9wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-22.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe02d…bcffbacked No41c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.53647.2%17 W · 19 L-2.6wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-18.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc030…1398backed No44c50$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222934.5%10 W · 19 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-24.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x19f4…c772backed Yes60c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.91,05434.9%368 W · 686 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd338…9fd3backed No42c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2129351.5%151 W · 142 L-14.3wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-13.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc62d…5577backed Yes61c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.7125038%95 W · 155 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e13…e968backed No42c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213633.3%12 W · 24 L-5.6wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-38.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf6f7…e0dabacked No45c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.51,86123.8%443 W · 1,418 L+47.9wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No46c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfea5…ee06backed Yes40c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3027029.3%79 W · 191 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No36c49.3$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.522,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd75d…00c8backed No42c47.58$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.1130144.9%135 W · 166 L+16.3wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+25.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x75cc…6b15backed Yes51c47.5$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.051,18149.4%583 W · 598 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No34c47$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.952,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No43c42.97$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.312,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No29c42.78$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.262,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8a98…1b92backed Yes45c41.4$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.65158.8%30 W · 21 L+5.9wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+9.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No43c40$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.173,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes42c38.51$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.397,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x506c…840cbacked Yes63c37.37$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.0115152.3%79 W · 72 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked No29c36.25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.352,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x567f…94b9backed No55c36$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.848919.2%94 W · 395 L-38.7wins-0.08per pick27cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x885f…7bf9backed Yes56c33.9$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.7554656.4%308 W · 238 L+15.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No55c33.89$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.761,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8231…5671backed Yes76c32.76$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.761100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4e0…6392backed Yes61c32.66$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.665358.5%31 W · 22 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes47c31.99$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.9961249.5%303 W · 309 L+30.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0fc4…acc4backed Yes44c31.82$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.822638.5%10 W · 16 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+11.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8ed5…7c3abacked Yes32c31.25$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.2520037%74 W · 126 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-10.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c7e…13d2backed Yes64c31.25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.251040%4 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-25.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4264…1706backed Yes76c30.79$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.3940871.8%293 W · 115 L-0.8wins0.00per pick72cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f81…7ce2backed No43c30$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.95966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick62cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc120…a7e3backed No65c30$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.41,29954.1%703 W · 596 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No65c29.99$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.494,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.