Lol · resolved market

LoL: Conviction vs Citadel Gaming - Game 2 Winner

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1b167fcb93f635be1ac3b8e38e80377dd59c54a2854ba0fafe87f02b246a91eb

Rebuilt 8 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Convictionof Conviction, Citadel Gaming
Resolved: Apr 3, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $42,291
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $49,241

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,291 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Lol
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xfb85…eda7backed Citadel Gaming	32c	6,106$1,976 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,976.04	22	63.6%14 W · 8 L	+0.9wins	+0.04per pick	60cpaid	+1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x490b…eec9backed Citadel Gaming	32c	5,763$1,866 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,866.26	91	31.9%29 W · 62 L	-5.1wins	-0.06per pick	37cpaid	-20.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked Conviction	71c	3,764$2,676 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,087.88	2,004	58.2%1,166 W · 838 L	+86.9wins	+0.04per pick	54cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x44fa…d852backed Conviction	64c	3,248$2,088 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,160.23	26	73.1%19 W · 7 L	+2.1wins	+0.08per pick	65cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdbb3…76a9backed Conviction	63c	2,863$1,816 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,046.7	392	46.4%182 W · 210 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-10%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed Conviction	67c	1,938$1,299 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$639.02	962	50.1%482 W · 480 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbb94…243cbacked Citadel Gaming	26c	1,446$381 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$381.38	65	40%26 W · 39 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x509d…0a6bbacked Citadel Gaming	31c	1,240$383 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$383.44	670	56.9%381 W · 289 L	+17.2wins	+0.03per pick	54cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xba12…6a47backed Conviction	66c	1,095$718 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$376.67	28	39.3%11 W · 17 L	-2.4wins	-0.08per pick	48cpaid	-14.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdf87…2974backed Citadel Gaming	1c	1,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	51	13.7%7 W · 44 L	-1.4wins	-0.03per pick	17cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x490a…1d4bbacked Citadel Gaming	38c	962.8$366 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$365.86	105	35.2%37 W · 68 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	37cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4820…c613backed Citadel Gaming	7c	959.97$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.99	74	35.1%26 W · 48 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	36cpaid	-23%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd359…6007backed Citadel Gaming	10c	946$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.6	22	40.9%9 W · 13 L	-2.5wins	-0.11per pick	52cpaid	-20.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Citadel Gaming	33c	908.17$302 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$301.52	194	37.6%73 W · 121 L	+0.8wins	0.00per pick	37cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xec7b…917ebacked Citadel Gaming	22c	866.55$191 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$190.64	78	47.4%37 W · 41 L	+7.2wins	+0.09per pick	38cpaid	+23.6%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa19d…3909backed Conviction	70c	810.64$564 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$246.82	1,521	50.6%769 W · 752 L	+3.8wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xea58…930fbacked Citadel Gaming	36c	740.4$267 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$266.54	1,216	44.4%540 W · 676 L	-12.7wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb1e…fdfcbacked Citadel Gaming	10c	660.21$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.67	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.7wins	-0.22per pick	22cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e96…262ebacked Citadel Gaming	6c	619.03$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.43	27	7.4%2 W · 25 L	-3.2wins	-0.12per pick	19cpaid	-73.2%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Conviction	65c	595.15$387 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$208.11	1,368	37.7%516 W · 852 L	-6.8wins	0.00per pick	38cpaid	-4%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x2fcb…78cfbacked Conviction	67c	590.69$396 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$194.93	647	49.9%323 W · 324 L	-24.9wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2e45…4b13backed Conviction	69c	568.93$393 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$176.37	131	71%93 W · 38 L	+3.3wins	+0.03per pick	68cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67cc…942fbacked Conviction	69c	517.72$357 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$160.49	151	41.7%63 W · 88 L	-9.2wins	-0.06per pick	48cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x42b8…5379backed Citadel Gaming	36c	496.83$179 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$178.86	223	49.3%110 W · 113 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xd7cb…4088backed Conviction	68c	432.75$296 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$136.6	86	47.7%41 W · 45 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb502…145cbacked Conviction	74c	410.91$306 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$104.83	139	71.2%99 W · 40 L	+10.6wins	+0.08per pick	64cpaid	+12.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Conviction	73c	394.41$288 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$106.73	599	52.8%316 W · 283 L	-3.0wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xbb64…bfdcbacked Conviction	66c	293.42$194 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$99.76	247	41.3%102 W · 145 L	+2.6wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Citadel Gaming	32c	293.3$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.42	1,794	51.1%917 W · 877 L	+50.5wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1234…c1bbbacked Conviction	69c	292.39$202 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$90.64	35	42.9%15 W · 20 L	-1.4wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-16.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf138…c953backed Citadel Gaming	33c	290.13$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.99	63	39.7%25 W · 38 L	-2.6wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	-25.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Citadel Gaming	31c	271.37$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.18	1,731	44.2%765 W · 966 L	-28.4wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-15.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Conviction	78c	258.45$202 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56.86	1,592	34%541 W · 1,051 L	-79.3wins	-0.05per pick	39cpaid	-32.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8b55…d74bbacked Citadel Gaming	34c	200$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68	866	49.7%430 W · 436 L	+18.3wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+7.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xed52…2dbdbacked Citadel Gaming	10c	200$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d07…8b9ebacked Citadel Gaming	32c	200$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64	440	47.5%209 W · 231 L	-4.4wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93e9…9010backed Citadel Gaming	13c	199.99$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	45	31.1%14 W · 31 L	-1.6wins	-0.04per pick	35cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb80d…0ac1backed Conviction	69c	196.28$135 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$60.85	505	47.7%241 W · 264 L	+4.2wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Conviction	79c	168.4$133 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.37	2,341	40.3%943 W · 1,398 L	-61.8wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Citadel Gaming	26c	145.62$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.43	2,495	47.3%1,181 W · 1,314 L	-32.5wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa900…5acebacked Conviction	41c	100$41 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$59	140	32.1%45 W · 95 L	-7.9wins	-0.06per pick	38cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa6bb…6b39backed Conviction	41c	100$41 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$59	104	35.6%37 W · 67 L	-2.0wins	-0.02per pick	37cpaid	-27.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb98d…c479backed Conviction	41c	100$41 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$59	95	37.9%36 W · 59 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	38cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8688…a520backed Conviction	64c	98.57$63 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.49	162	51.9%84 W · 78 L	+2.9wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff80…9b4dbacked Citadel Gaming	23c	95.38$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.94	372	45.2%168 W · 204 L	-4.3wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed Citadel Gaming	27c	80$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.6	1,643	44.4%730 W · 913 L	-42.1wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-14%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x200e…e21dbacked Conviction	66c	74.21$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.23	997	47.1%470 W · 527 L	-6.3wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6ed…5dc7backed Conviction	64c	65.55$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.6	39	53.8%21 W · 18 L	+1.7wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	+9.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd11d…5656backed Conviction	66c	58.97$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.77	506	47.2%239 W · 267 L	-7.5wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcec1…9c0cbacked Conviction	64c	49.85$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.95	434	42.4%184 W · 250 L	-18.3wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-10%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Conviction	65c	49.54$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.24	2,905	38.5%1,119 W · 1,786 L	-118.5wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-27.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x84b1…9645backed Conviction	65c	45.18$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.81	110	50%55 W · 55 L	-8.6wins	-0.08per pick	58cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6510…36d1backed Conviction	42c	42$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.4	73	27.4%20 W · 53 L	-4.3wins	-0.06per pick	33cpaid	-21.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3e6d…2671backed Conviction	70c	39.62$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.71	1,576	48.4%763 W · 813 L	+17.4wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3123…b44dbacked Conviction	69c	39.26$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.17	153	59.5%91 W · 62 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	60cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x00d4…4c46backed Conviction	41c	32$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.88	597	40.7%243 W · 354 L	+5.5wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0535…75ccbacked Conviction	76c	30$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.2	1,009	49.2%496 W · 513 L	+30.0wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	+10.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9bd9…084fbacked Conviction	78c	28.08$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.13	416	51.2%213 W · 203 L	-1.3wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcd9d…2269backed Conviction	64c	19.82$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.14	111	55.9%62 W · 49 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	56cpaid	+3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x648e…bf9ebacked Conviction	68c	19.62$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.28	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.09per pick	59cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca7c…e994backed Conviction	70c	14.54$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.36	1,385	45.1%625 W · 760 L	-12.5wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x00b7…5b93backed Conviction	73c	14.26$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.83	160	43.1%69 W · 91 L	-6.6wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

LoL: Conviction vs Citadel Gaming - Game 2 Winnerthis page
Game Handicap: CNV (-1.5) vs Citadel Gaming (+1.5)Conviction won
Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
LoL: Conviction vs Citadel Gaming (BO3) - North American Challengers League Regular SeasonConviction won
LoL: Conviction vs Citadel Gaming - Game 1 WinnerConviction won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

LoL: Conviction vs Citadel Gaming - Game 2 Winner

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event