Europa Conference League · resolved market
Zirə FK vs. Paide Linnameeskond: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1b7c78171b28f5c2393fd496140cc4c312b9c5d7c2a2169652a0d8a9862ab720
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,965
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,236
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,965 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 37c | 1,124$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.51 | 558 | 45%251 W · 307 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 33c | 769.93$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.48 | 1,604 | 38.9%624 W · 980 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 30c | 710.64$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.38 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Under | 66c | 605.42$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.84 | 324 | 36.4%118 W · 206 L | -20.4wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 76c | 590.2$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.77 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 3c | 513.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 795 | 32.2%256 W · 539 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ee…b3aabacked Under | 48c | 467.85$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.89 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 34c | 340.9$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.77 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 66c | 228.3$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.62 | 969 | 47.5%460 W · 509 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 34c | 201.25$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.56 | 1,114 | 35.8%399 W · 715 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd41b…f231backed Under | 49c | 194.2$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.2 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 67c | 150.6$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.54 | 655 | 49.8%326 W · 329 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc7…4d38backed Over | 32c | 147.05$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.06 | 134 | 50%67 W · 67 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Over | 33c | 140$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 218 | 40.4%88 W · 130 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Under | 67c | 132.4$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 778 | 55%428 W · 350 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over | 33c | 108.54$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.82 | 59 | 27.1%16 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 67c | 108.04$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.65 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 53c | 82.24$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 75 | 53.3%40 W · 35 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 49c | 81.19$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.78 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +14.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 50c | 75.2$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.6 | 783 | 44.8%351 W · 432 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 50c | 75.2$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 179 | 58.1%104 W · 75 L | +17.0wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7aefbacked Over | 34c | 67.96$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.11 | 93 | 40.9%38 W · 55 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed Over | 34c | 67.95$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 111 | 41.4%46 W · 65 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Under | 75c | 66.24$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.56 | 299 | 59.5%178 W · 121 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 46c | 59.87$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.54 | 155 | 62.6%97 W · 58 L | +22.9wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Over | 38c | 59$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.42 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Under | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 67c | 56$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.43 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…193cbacked Over | 34c | 47.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 74c | 41.28$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.74 | 580 | 61.9%359 W · 221 L | +22.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c31…5380backed Under | 68c | 28.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.09 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Under | 74c | 28.26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.27 | 296 | 54.1%160 W · 136 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 77c | 25.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 852 | 60.9%519 W · 333 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Under | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 334 | 46.7%156 W · 178 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b4…88dfbacked Under | 63c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 65cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Zirə FK vs. Paide Linnameeskond: O/U 3.5this page
- Spread: Zirə FK (-1.5)Paide Linnameeskond won
- Spread: Zirə FK (-2.5)Paide Linnameeskond won
- Zirə FK vs. Paide Linnameeskond: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Zirə FK vs. Paide Linnameeskond: O/U 0.5Over won
- Zirə FK vs. Paide Linnameeskond: O/U 1.5Over won
- Zirə FK vs. Paide Linnameeskond: O/U 2.5Under won
- Zirə FK vs. Paide Linnameeskond: O/U 4.5Under won
- Zirə FK vs. Paide Linnameeskond: O/U 5.5Under won
- Zirə FK vs. Paide Linnameeskond: Paide Linnameeskond O/U 0.5Over won
- Zirə FK vs. Paide Linnameeskond: Zirə FK O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.