Premier League · resolved market
Bristol City FC vs. Millwall FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1bd115ded6e1e176e06fd8036e6c6f6b379c73b5ea125c588fd0946c89ea1257
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,608
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,977
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,608 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb52e…285cbacked Over | 50c | 20,000$10,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,000 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 50c | 5,496$2,748 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,748.22 | 452 | 49.6%224 W · 228 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x583e…a2a6backed Under | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,000 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x712e…0485backed Under | 50c | 2,500$1,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,250 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 53c | 2,092$1,107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$984.19 | 6,047 | 45.9%2,776 W · 3,271 L | -21.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 1,179 | 50%590 W · 589 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 51c | 1,984$1,022 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$962.22 | 812 | 34.7%282 W · 530 L | -24.2wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…92d3backed Over | 54c | 1,628$879 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$879.26 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 52cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 31c | 1,333$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$917.57 | 117 | 53%62 W · 55 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 41c | 1,036$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$613.09 | 953 | 32.5%310 W · 643 L | -8.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb98…b473backed Over | 70c | 999.99$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 48c | 666.24$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.29 | 1,615 | 34.9%564 W · 1,051 L | -28.7wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaac…d71dbacked Under | 50c | 633.33$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.67 | 70 | 48.6%34 W · 36 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 50c | 596.83$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.42 | 2,530 | 47.7%1,206 W · 1,324 L | +43.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x275c…349cbacked Under | 46c | 550.15$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +115.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf438…9559backed Over | 49c | 533.14$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.24 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 51c | 528$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.72 | 137 | 42.3%58 W · 79 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5213…6a35backed Under | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2918…fe4abacked Over | 58c | 500$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1eef…83aabacked Over | 44c | 491.39$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.21 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x834d…0c31backed Over | 25c | 475.99$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 31c | 429.77$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.23 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 59c | 409.06$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.1 | 4,696 | 41.7%1,957 W · 2,739 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Under | 51c | 379.99$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.2 | 214 | 40.7%87 W · 127 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 50c | 336$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 964 | 43.7%421 W · 543 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 50c | 336$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 1,208 | 42.2%510 W · 698 L | -27.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 50c | 336$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 1,074 | 45%483 W · 591 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf4…d0b2backed Under | 51c | 331.11$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.24 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +3.1wins | +0.45per pick | 41cpaid | +121.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 50c | 285$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.5 | 65 | 44.6%29 W · 36 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e78…067ebacked Under | 31c | 262.88$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 50c | 256$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 50c | 227.01$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.82 | 1,409 | 44.5%627 W · 782 L | -6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3824…e756backed Under | 55c | 177.98$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.09 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Under | 32c | 151.19$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.23 | 353 | 28.6%101 W · 252 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 50c | 137$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.5 | 758 | 50%379 W · 379 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 67c | 136$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.18 | 1,923 | 42.4%815 W · 1,108 L | -42.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed Under | 50c | 135$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 50c | 130.52$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.86 | 541 | 32.9%178 W · 363 L | -28.6wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 30c | 113.61$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.88 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 50c | 106.66$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.33 | 532 | 40%213 W · 319 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a9…68b6backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2810…a1a8backed Over | 49c | 99.98$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.99 | 214 | 48.6%104 W · 110 L | +8.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f03…8a0dbacked Under | 51c | 98.03$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.03 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81a7…7042backed Over | 48c | 87.9$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.06 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e90…4f65backed Under | 51c | 83.59$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.96 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b24…11efbacked Over | 72c | 73$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.56 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 50c | 70$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.83 | 1,589 | 53.3%847 W · 742 L | +39.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb107…a3f8backed Under | 50c | 64$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 34c | 62$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.18 | 755 | 42.3%319 W · 436 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 28c | 58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 964 | 45.4%438 W · 526 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadd8…53c9backed Under | 51c | 50.04$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 772 | 36.4%281 W · 491 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under | 50c | 49.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.51 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…dd26backed Under | 50c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 55c | 31.31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.09 | 93 | 58.1%54 W · 39 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Over | 53c | 30.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 270 | 51.5%139 W · 131 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 40c | 30.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 740 | 56.9%421 W · 319 L | +46.2wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa69…8e03backed Under | 60c | 30.69$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Under | 50c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.31 | 1,007 | 51.5%519 W · 488 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5b…1ddfbacked Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 58c | 29.43$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 273 | 56.4%154 W · 119 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Over | 45c | 26.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 407 | 42%171 W · 236 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 46c | 22.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 96 | 60.4%58 W · 38 L | +7.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Under | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 128 | 54.7%70 W · 58 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3a…e8fdbacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdae…6ad2backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 61 | 68.9%42 W · 19 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe577…6d01backed Under | 54c | 19.44$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Under | 78c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bristol City FC vs. Millwall FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Bristol City FC vs. Millwall FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Bristol City FC vs. Millwall FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Bristol City FC vs. Millwall FC: Bristol City FC O/U 1.5Under won
- Bristol City FC vs. Millwall FC: Bristol City FC O/U 2.5Under won
- Bristol City FC vs. Millwall FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- Bristol City FC vs. Millwall FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Bristol City FC vs. Millwall FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Bristol City FC vs. Millwall FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Bristol City FC vs. Millwall FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Bristol City FC (-2.5)Millwall FC won
- Spread: Millwall FC (-1.5)Millwall FC won
- Spread: Millwall FC (-2.5)Bristol City FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.