Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin reach $112,000 November 10-16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1be67573c978bc0856998941a83ce95781495a9d40741f37a030db264acd08aa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $123,805
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $96,861
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $123,805 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa4fd…6cc0backed Yes | 13c | 16,341$2,090 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,090.24 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe47…3e2fbacked Yes | 9c | 9,892$868 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$868.22 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x117d…bff1backed Yes | 0c | 8,826$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 2,598$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.92 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3301…4dd8backed Yes | 4c | 2,297$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.42 | 102 | 4.9%5 W · 97 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5bc…2c49backed Yes | 4c | 2,289$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d5b…4f5abacked Yes | 8c | 2,199$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x839b…6f92backed Yes | 1c | 1,300$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3d…ed5dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,200$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf14e…86efbacked Yes | 4c | 1,165$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 11cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…46e1backed No | 67c | 1,003$675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.44 | 406 | 43.3%176 W · 230 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x884d…1da6backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 11cpaid | +90.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 12c | 967.07$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.59 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x446e…3042backed Yes | 2c | 845.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2a…de7dbacked Yes | 8c | 500$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 120 | 12.5%15 W · 105 L | -8.9wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe9…bb0abacked Yes | 31c | 500$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 167 | 29.3%49 W · 118 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 5c | 497.61$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.94 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1150…b451backed Yes | 6c | 489$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.34 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1bf…46b3backed Yes | 10c | 340$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ccc…4825backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd046…fbc3backed Yes | 28c | 153.5$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfca4…3fe6backed No | 75c | 132$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.43 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0258…13bfbacked No | 78c | 126$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.72 | 181 | 62.4%113 W · 68 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1247…9ce9backed No | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecb8…2a2abacked Yes | 35c | 80$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +55.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin reach $112,000 November 10-16?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $100,000 November 10-16?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $102,000 November 10-16?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $104,000 November 10-16?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $92,000 November 10-16?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $94,000 November 10-16?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $96,000 November 10-16?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $98,000 November 10-16?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $108,000 November 10-16?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 November 10-16?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $114,000 November 10-16?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $116,000 November 10-16?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $118,000 November 10-16?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 November 10-16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.