TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin reach $108,000 November 10-16?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$302,732
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$260,897

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $302,732 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 118 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4c03…604ebacked Yes0c66,825$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.317229.7%51 W · 121 L-13.0wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-47.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c11,332$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.321,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a92…071ebacked No69c10,099$6,951 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,148.393076.7%23 W · 7 L+9.0wins+0.30per pick47cpaid+47.4%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x50a5…bafebacked Yes0c10,070$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.0723411.1%26 W · 208 L+9.2wins+0.04per pick7cpaid+16.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd38a…52c0backed Yes5c8,235$415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$414.85647.8%5 W · 59 L-0.3wins0.00per pick8cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad45…b8c9backed Yes3c7,353$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.85937.5%7 W · 86 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-56.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3301…4dd8backed Yes7c6,004$427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$426.591024.9%5 W · 97 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick7cpaid-76.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc50…4c82backed No62c5,563$3,471 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,091.8858126.9%156 W · 425 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-39.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb63a…4064backed No66c5,363$3,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,803.117231.4%54 W · 118 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-15.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf33d…24cabacked Yes2c5,145$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$951241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick38cpaid-21.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd97c…aedbbacked Yes55c4,653$2,554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5545034%17 W · 33 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-17.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes34c4,483$1,521 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,520.9787828.4%249 W · 629 L+2.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x707e…1960backed Yes42c3,850$1,627 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,626.8422550.2%113 W · 112 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5652…c7b4backed Yes2c3,737$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.9610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb580…9b95backed Yes1c3,526$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.36633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-48.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf164…b99cbacked Yes1c3,120$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-81.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe47…3e2fbacked Yes6c3,096$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.71812.5%1 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4fd…6cc0backed Yes23c3,000$690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6901910.5%2 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick11cpaid+62.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3cde…374ebacked Yes4c2,857$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10060%0 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e52…9434backed Yes39c2,564$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0004920.4%10 W · 39 L-3.5wins-0.07per pick28cpaid-36.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1ed1…73e6backed Yes23c2,340$531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$530.8933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick42cpaid+22.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeae5…33c1backed Yes3c1,827$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010315.5%16 W · 87 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick18cpaid+28.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf9c1…55e7backed Yes1c1,606$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe40a…10fdbacked Yes1c1,533$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22e6…409fbacked Yes14c1,500$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2104721.3%10 W · 37 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-29.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb1c…963ebacked No56c1,494$830 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$664.5155032.5%179 W · 371 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb77…f0b2backed No61c1,475$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$575.33944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd643…0dd4backed No54c1,455$793 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$662.2510545.7%48 W · 57 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-5.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x57b2…94b6backed Yes7c1,449$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-51.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa45c…1d10backed Yes35c1,356$469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$469.465837.9%22 W · 36 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-22.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8dfc…f414backed Yes6c1,214$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7050%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f2a…de7dbacked Yes8c1,207$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.8212012.5%15 W · 105 L-8.9wins-0.07per pick20cpaid-55.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4ee2…46e1backed No48c1,200$572 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$627.5240643.3%176 W · 230 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-12.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d82…7d33backed Yes35c1,129$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4003759.5%22 W · 15 L+3.8wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+34.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf14e…86efbacked Yes6c956.32$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$603721.6%8 W · 29 L+4.1wins+0.11per pick11cpaid+36.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1333…c602backed Yes58c880$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$510.410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1dc9…24dcbacked Yes2c747.11$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.025111.8%6 W · 45 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick9cpaid-32.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3f3…9b44backed Yes14c663.86$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.9490%0 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x71b1…ac2cbacked Yes6c639.99$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.157424.3%18 W · 56 L+4.5wins+0.06per pick18cpaid+5.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa28b…b4edbacked Yes21c596.81$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.7350%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9567…e505backed No65c549.99$356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.895170.6%36 W · 15 L+4.4wins+0.09per pick62cpaid+9.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7c09…e9e5backed Yes2c514.72$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01fa…c2edbacked Yes5c505$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.41136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-43%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc87…8dd0backed Yes7c400.72$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.59250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid-16.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9645…6c49backed No68c375$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120757.1%4 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.15per pick72cpaid-20.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd08…28ddbacked Yes46c347.83$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca21…bee4backed Yes15c333.33$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e3d…ed5dbacked Yes7c300.55$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2150%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x446e…3042backed Yes7c285.71$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa65e…8415backed Yes7c267.86$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ebb…bf5cbacked Yes18c265.31$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.76450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-30.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf128…b8d1backed Yes6c260.56$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9a6…409cbacked No66c250$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$853773%27 W · 10 L+4.0wins+0.11per pick62cpaid+4.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x0970…5ae4backed No25c250$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.528021.1%59 W · 221 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-27.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xab90…e314backed Yes17c230.37$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbdb5…de37backed Yes7c228.57$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed No69c213.82$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.245324.5%13 W · 40 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+20.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x59db…1d13backed No70c210$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.51662.5%10 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick60cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefab…3b6bbacked Yes50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce2d…8b81backed Yes5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10147.1%1 W · 13 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick15cpaid-79.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xff7c…b233backed Yes5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104017.5%7 W · 33 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-56.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0eca…a43fbacked No43c200$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1151100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick43cpaid+135.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes27c195.17$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.9964812%78 W · 570 L-61.6wins-0.10per pick22cpaid-53.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3c0a…4912backed No68c190$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa113…89e9backed Yes32c190$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2510…60adbacked Yes32c186.76$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.846564.6%42 W · 23 L+6.9wins+0.11per pick54cpaid+15.3%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x267b…d065backed No36c180.12$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.46966.7%6 W · 3 L+2.2wins+0.25per pick42cpaid+59.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xcb72…7da1backed Yes6c167.99$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.21190%0 W · 19 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x83ce…835cbacked No70c161.4$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.6226274.4%195 W · 67 L+45.7wins+0.17per pick57cpaid+31.7%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x47d3…4255backed Yes32c156.22$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9930%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8c9…0eddbacked Yes8c146.35$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf90f…8296backed Yes38c131.58$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x80d9…a756backed Yes47c130$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.12650%13 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-16.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x35ac…d9e5backed Yes40c125$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.58per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x43b0…02c5backed Yes16c125$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf1f…3537backed No53c120$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.42857.1%16 W · 12 L+0.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4440…7453backed No58c109.43$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x154c…658ebacked No65c100.61$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.922045%9 W · 11 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick35cpaid+27.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x534d…a7d3backed No63c100$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$375766.7%38 W · 19 L+5.0wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+19.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x32b4…3a30backed Yes16c100$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1620%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e0e…4419backed Yes33c100$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1a4…527cbacked Yes11c100$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111520%3 W · 12 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-70%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdc48…5d3bbacked Yes15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15520%1 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick11cpaid+42.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7fce…305bbacked No54c100$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$462646.2%12 W · 14 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick41cpaid-13.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c52…2c09backed Yes78c100$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7830%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes41c97.56$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405318.9%10 W · 43 L-8.0wins-0.15per pick34cpaid-54.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x5602…4540backed Yes75c93.33$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa907…5fdfbacked Yes33c84.12$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.76540%2 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.26per pick14cpaid+416.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc4aa…8d91backed Yes35c81.12$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28130%0 W · 13 L-2.1wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x02bb…cb45backed Yes47c80$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.62552%13 W · 12 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+15.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e14…3003backed No52c78.39$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.6312020%24 W · 96 L+5.7wins+0.05per pick15cpaid+43.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x336f…c31ebacked No49c77$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.274742.6%20 W · 27 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-25.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4043…19cfbacked No53c70$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.93053.3%16 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-1.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b62…61f2backed Yes16c62.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc41d…6cb0backed No29c62.07$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.073638.9%14 W · 22 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick33cpaid+2.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5cf8…69abbacked Yes47c60$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.2140%0 W · 14 L-5.2wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x5371…2cf5backed Yes47c57.14$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2730%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x21d9…11c3backed Yes36c55.56$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ac8…266dbacked No70c51.41$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.65650%3 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe1f…68f3backed Yes39c51.28$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-63.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.