Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin dip to $102,000 November 10-16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x134766ac97eacc6c70713e3ff17f54d3017626790a450a6d734a9f7a3235e8ef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $93,509
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $99,857
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $93,509 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0e54…17dcbacked No | 0c | 26,940$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a92…071ebacked Yes | 67c | 15,719$10,562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,157.45 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +9.0wins | +0.30per pick | 47cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 53c | 13,812$7,291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,520.87 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd643…0dd4backed No | 23c | 7,030$1,601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,601.4 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked No | 49c | 5,655$2,787 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,786.74 | 550 | 32.5%179 W · 371 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…783bbacked No | 55c | 5,000$2,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,750 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x707e…1960backed Yes | 65c | 3,433$2,218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,214.47 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed No | 35c | 3,094$1,093 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,092.88 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce10…51d4backed No | 23c | 1,948$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67dc…a64bbacked No | 27c | 1,000$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d77…bc86backed No | 40c | 702.74$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 50c | 600$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.08 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed1…73e6backed No | 31c | 350$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5877…d3debacked No | 29c | 291.26$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.63 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe204…e90bbacked No | 32c | 200$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cfa…9bb4backed No | 24c | 190$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa45c…1d10backed No | 31c | 181$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.11 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes | 61c | 160.07$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.43 | 377 | 45.9%173 W · 204 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d04…5f7abacked Yes | 57c | 121.28$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.15 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 37cpaid | +98.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9797…1d4abacked Yes | 53c | 113.21$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.21 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -45%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x534d…a7d3backed Yes | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 57 | 66.7%38 W · 19 L | +5.0wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x17cb…d67cbacked Yes | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…267ebacked Yes | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 94 | 27.7%26 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x206d…a3a3backed No | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x267b…d065backed Yes | 51c | 99.19$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.05 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked Yes | 66c | 92.58$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.64 | 262 | 74.4%195 W · 67 L | +45.7wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x0f6c…e10dbacked Yes | 76c | 90$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x346c…3a90backed No | 20c | 70$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x154f…9a12backed Yes | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x386e…3463backed No | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 31c | 44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfd80…3f30backed Yes | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +173.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8666…d7c7backed No | 34c | 38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 59 | 33.9%20 W · 39 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x154c…658ebacked Yes | 49c | 33.8$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.31 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa163…4dd3backed No | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x336f…c31ebacked No | 50c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac3…df62backed Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd36a…927dbacked No | 59c | 18.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $102,000 November 10-16?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $100,000 November 10-16?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $104,000 November 10-16?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $92,000 November 10-16?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $94,000 November 10-16?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $96,000 November 10-16?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $98,000 November 10-16?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $108,000 November 10-16?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 November 10-16?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $112,000 November 10-16?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $114,000 November 10-16?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $116,000 November 10-16?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $118,000 November 10-16?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 November 10-16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.