Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 November 10-16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9208cc7be037c34d4a8c3e2d256b3f50932d4e58eaffd32cfb14938c685c923d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $164,011
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $157,998
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $164,011 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x117d…bff1backed Yes | 0c | 10,332$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa45b…b357backed Yes | 1c | 7,042$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3301…4dd8backed Yes | 3c | 7,013$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.82 | 102 | 4.9%5 W · 97 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7496…3962backed Yes | 12c | 4,171$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.51 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed1…73e6backed Yes | 12c | 3,930$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.4 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3bc…543ebacked Yes | 3c | 3,102$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 3,084$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.91 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x707e…1960backed Yes | 27c | 2,097$566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$566.11 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 10c | 2,078$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.79 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x165c…0922backed No | 71c | 2,000$1,420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$580 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a83…d4e6backed Yes | 29c | 2,000$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 26c | 1,999$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.78 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed Yes | 14c | 1,953$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.17 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd97c…aedbbacked Yes | 57c | 1,949$1,111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,111 | 50 | 34%17 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a49…d133backed Yes | 2c | 1,733$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3d…ed5dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,602$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.09 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea16…0e77backed Yes | 3c | 1,300$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75c0…a72abacked Yes | 59c | 1,251$738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$737.98 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e52…9434backed Yes | 20c | 1,250$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 49 | 20.4%10 W · 39 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2a…de7dbacked Yes | 12c | 1,247$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.07 | 120 | 12.5%15 W · 105 L | -8.9wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb48e…d489backed Yes | 2c | 1,224$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6aa…0bd0backed Yes | 3c | 1,185$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad45…b8c9backed Yes | 9c | 1,111$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 93 | 7.5%7 W · 86 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe736…6192backed Yes | 3c | 1,100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…46e1backed No | 53c | 1,002$531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.23 | 406 | 43.3%176 W · 230 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cde…374ebacked Yes | 3c | 988.91$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf14e…86efbacked Yes | 13c | 910.71$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 11cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeee8…7e06backed Yes | 6c | 899.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5bc…2c49backed Yes | 13c | 843.69$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.68 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9e3…93f2backed Yes | 10c | 610.55$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.07 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1150…b451backed Yes | 8c | 596$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.68 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc33b…2372backed Yes | 4c | 540.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc9…24dcbacked Yes | 4c | 446.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71b1…ac2cbacked Yes | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 74 | 24.3%18 W · 56 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa45c…1d10backed Yes | 19c | 292$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.26 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc887…869bbacked Yes | 27c | 230$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.1 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab90…e314backed Yes | 7c | 214.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0258…13bfbacked No | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 181 | 62.4%113 W · 68 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb72…7da1backed Yes | 11c | 193.28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.89 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 11c | 160$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0d…8bcabacked Yes | 17c | 147.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdd43…0699backed No | 73c | 130$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.1 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60cf…16c2backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x534d…a7d3backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 57 | 66.7%38 W · 19 L | +5.0wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6eeb…c3d7backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f9…f619backed No | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…266dbacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x932f…acbabacked Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf49f…c371backed Yes | 44c | 33.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37b2…8681backed No | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c7…6b22backed No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 November 10-16?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $100,000 November 10-16?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $102,000 November 10-16?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $104,000 November 10-16?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $92,000 November 10-16?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $94,000 November 10-16?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $96,000 November 10-16?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $98,000 November 10-16?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $108,000 November 10-16?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $112,000 November 10-16?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $114,000 November 10-16?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $116,000 November 10-16?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $118,000 November 10-16?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 November 10-16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.