Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin dip to $96,000 November 10-16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc5a6306659842a3a54212f360ce37f8675baa76025f0666f98086863b8bf808c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $181,721
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $190,836
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $181,721 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed No | 54c | 13,189$7,186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,186.32 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes | 62c | 9,028$5,596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,431.86 | 377 | 45.9%173 W · 204 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a92…071ebacked Yes | 42c | 8,292$3,474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,817.64 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +9.0wins | +0.30per pick | 47cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 26c | 6,994$1,806 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,188.57 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0276…19d8backed Yes | 9c | 5,556$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,055.56 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…783bbacked No | 48c | 5,000$2,420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,420 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97bc…30cdbacked Yes | 7c | 3,564$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,314.79 | 67 | 23.9%16 W · 51 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +111.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd364…7a8bbacked No | 0c | 3,040$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9514…0dd6backed Yes | 65c | 2,430$1,579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$850.32 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.36per pick | 51cpaid | -78%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x269c…9017backed No | 80c | 2,000$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,600 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94da…2bf1backed Yes | 18c | 2,000$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,640.5 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd38a…52c0backed Yes | 6c | 1,600$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,504 | 64 | 7.8%5 W · 59 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x707e…1960backed Yes | 51c | 1,334$686 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$647.91 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7fb…8a68backed Yes | 13c | 1,072$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$937.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.87per pick | 13cpaid | +694.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x983f…c67ebacked Yes | 61c | 1,000$605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395 | 14 | 100%14 W · 0 L | +4.2wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…46e1backed No | 55c | 806.24$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.18 | 406 | 43.3%176 W · 230 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd643…0dd4backed No | 20c | 801.53$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.13 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed No | 16c | 800$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 120 | 20%24 W · 96 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc006…1c7abacked Yes | 80c | 694.62$553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.91 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe9…bb0abacked No | 38c | 650$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.15 | 167 | 29.3%49 W · 118 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…604ebacked Yes | 63c | 615.11$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.82 | 172 | 29.7%51 W · 121 L | -13.0wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b93…cf40backed No | 61c | 600$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…267ebacked No | 32c | 500$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.7 | 94 | 27.7%26 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e37…cccbbacked No | 31c | 500$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd769…f90cbacked No | 80c | 500$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 195 | 35.4%69 W · 126 L | -13.0wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab6b…f5f4backed No | 20c | 499.99$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 41c | 463.82$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.42 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64c5…feeabacked No | 40c | 425.38$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.15 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9645…6c49backed No | 67c | 400$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 72cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01dd…f8bbbacked Yes | 13c | 382.64$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.04 | 119 | 8.4%10 W · 109 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +90.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x366c…8184backed Yes | 32c | 304.81$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.81 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9d3…5919backed No | 56c | 261.61$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x154c…658ebacked Yes | 12c | 254.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.01 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd425…bf47backed Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +3.9wins | +0.65per pick | 18cpaid | +458.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x84c7…cabebacked Yes | 15c | 233$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.05 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8b…e99fbacked No | 16c | 207$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49a9…e3dbbacked Yes | 19c | 202.94$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.94 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.32per pick | 22cpaid | +188.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb3…c770backed No | 33c | 176.47$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.06 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 33c | 168.04$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.92 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x500e…7c9abacked Yes | 17c | 166$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.78 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65ec…8e4bbacked No | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7496…14adbacked Yes | 43c | 161.29$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +130.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb7…8d07backed Yes | 36c | 138.89$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.89 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f1…5743backed Yes | 36c | 138.07$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.07 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf565…8bffbacked Yes | 20c | 124.38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +148.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a2c…32bcbacked Yes | 18c | 110$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.18per pick | 18cpaid | +95.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe585…91b5backed No | 47c | 106.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 68cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0258…13bfbacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.3 | 181 | 62.4%113 W · 68 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e60…9e3fbacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 23cpaid | +227.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16c4…d1d5backed Yes | 36c | 79.42$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.43 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5891…a78cbacked No | 45c | 65.93$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac3…df62backed Yes | 40c | 60$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.75 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked No | 61c | 58.4$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.86 | 262 | 74.4%195 W · 67 L | +45.7wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x6a0d…118fbacked Yes | 41c | 57.21$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.64 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 56cpaid | +47%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30ea…6bf2backed Yes | 33c | 50.61$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbfe…c0adbacked Yes | 60c | 47.8$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes | 50c | 43.44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.62 | 550 | 32.5%179 W · 371 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac7e…05a0backed No | 63c | 31.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cdc…ae37backed Yes | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 58 | 22.4%13 W · 45 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2510…60adbacked No | 52c | 21.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 65 | 64.6%42 W · 23 L | +6.9wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $96,000 November 10-16?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $100,000 November 10-16?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $102,000 November 10-16?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $104,000 November 10-16?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $92,000 November 10-16?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $94,000 November 10-16?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $98,000 November 10-16?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $108,000 November 10-16?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 November 10-16?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $112,000 November 10-16?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $114,000 November 10-16?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $116,000 November 10-16?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $118,000 November 10-16?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 November 10-16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.