Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1c7d35eb4d3c94c2eaddf74813ce6ea27fa1cb2932f04b64c3c655a70ecb1334
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- BetBoom Teamof BetBoom Team, Natus Vincere
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,197
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,655
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,197 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Natus Vincere | 31c | 4,633$1,455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,454.71 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8523…1c9fbacked Natus Vincere | 33c | 2,395$799 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$798.7 | 102 | 36.3%37 W · 65 L | -10.7wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4b78…4d2fbacked Natus Vincere | 45c | 2,236$1,013 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,012.51 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Natus Vincere | 32c | 2,113$681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$681.28 | 399 | 36.8%147 W · 252 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde17…68d2backed BetBoom Team | 64c | 2,008$1,283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$725.69 | 179 | 50.3%90 W · 89 L | +14.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked BetBoom Team | 63c | 1,671$1,057 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$613.78 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed BetBoom Team | 64c | 1,027$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.78 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed BetBoom Team | 61c | 1,005$614 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.11 | 364 | 42.3%154 W · 210 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0caf…91adbacked BetBoom Team | 62c | 779.72$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.7 | 77 | 50.6%39 W · 38 L | -9.7wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9942…5c84backed BetBoom Team | 68c | 735.29$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.29 | 264 | 53%140 W · 124 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5c…48f9backed Natus Vincere | 38c | 599.31$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.05 | 107 | 45.8%49 W · 58 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25ed…6ac6backed BetBoom Team | 68c | 508.81$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.82 | 78 | 55.1%43 W · 35 L | +6.7wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed BetBoom Team | 66c | 499.6$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.64 | 197 | 43.1%85 W · 112 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…1bb9backed Natus Vincere | 45c | 445.01$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.49 | 568 | 48.8%277 W · 291 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03a2…7e3ebacked BetBoom Team | 66c | 433$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.21 | 122 | 48.4%59 W · 63 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed BetBoom Team | 65c | 369$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.66 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f99…c209backed Natus Vincere | 33c | 305.84$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 128 | 51.6%66 W · 62 L | -9.8wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x091e…3432backed Natus Vincere | 38c | 276$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.88 | 114 | 52.6%60 W · 54 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ba…faecbacked BetBoom Team | 63c | 237.33$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.33 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d60…be72backed BetBoom Team | 65c | 217.27$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.67 | 199 | 49.2%98 W · 101 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Natus Vincere | 34c | 172.08$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.54 | 894 | 40.3%360 W · 534 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x758f…dfb7backed BetBoom Team | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 346 | 67.9%235 W · 111 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3703…2795backed BetBoom Team | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 153 | 41.2%63 W · 90 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa541…d860backed Natus Vincere | 16c | 130$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 30 | 3.3%1 W · 29 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 15cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeceb…8d0dbacked BetBoom Team | 65c | 116$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.6 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…4ab2backed Natus Vincere | 35c | 110$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac93…0cfcbacked BetBoom Team | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 581 | 52.5%305 W · 276 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf98b…57bbbacked BetBoom Team | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 418 | 64.1%268 W · 150 L | +17.2wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86e0…c394backed Natus Vincere | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 807 | 42.6%344 W · 463 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cab…a8cfbacked BetBoom Team | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 353 | 70%247 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x217f…5d10backed Natus Vincere | 27c | 70$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 91 | 28.6%26 W · 65 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc8…21f0backed Natus Vincere | 37c | 66.74$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5da4…422bbacked Natus Vincere | 36c | 66.67$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4946…e041backed BetBoom Team | 66c | 55.23$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.98 | 555 | 61.8%343 W · 212 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31d8…4108backed BetBoom Team | 73c | 51.14$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.81 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.19per pick | 62cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x983d…933fbacked BetBoom Team | 60c | 39.6$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Natus Vincere | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Natus Vincere | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 204 | 57.8%118 W · 86 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked BetBoom Team | 67c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Natus Vincere (BO3)BetBoom Team won
- Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 WinnerBetBoom Team won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.