TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Sashi Esport (BO3) - Conquest of Prague Finals Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Walczakiof Walczaki, Sashi Esport
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$99,548
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$111,806

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $99,548 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 163 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x29b5…cc6cbacked Walczaki47c24,671$11,640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,030.345,05055.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L+117.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Walczaki47c13,028$6,136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,891.782,62451.8%1,359 W · 1,265 L+18.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xddc3…029cbacked Sashi Esport51c10,446$5,354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,353.792456.8%525 W · 399 L+2.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82d2…beeabacked Sashi Esport52c9,918$5,161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,161.181,01152.3%529 W · 482 L+27.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x56d6…4404backed Sashi Esport54c6,024$3,223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,222.764058.1%372 W · 268 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x824f…69bdbacked Sashi Esport54c5,906$3,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,200.444148.8%20 W · 21 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1661…4b37backed Sashi Esport51c4,473$2,273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,272.927349.3%36 W · 37 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7069…325bbacked Sashi Esport49c4,000$1,952 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,952.2194645.8%433 W · 513 L+18.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda1a…3407backed Sashi Esport50c3,678$1,828 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,828.0128960.6%175 W · 114 L+14.1wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+9.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd761…56e3backed Sashi Esport54c3,394$1,835 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,834.7324746.2%114 W · 133 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58d1…7ab6backed Sashi Esport53c2,733$1,457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,457.484546.7%21 W · 24 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x196b…4151backed Sashi Esport1c2,250$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301080.9%1 W · 107 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-76.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd02a…4771backed Walczaki48c2,177$1,052 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,125.2719245.8%88 W · 104 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed Walczaki48c2,095$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,094.652,00953.9%1,082 W · 927 L+7.6wins0.00per pick53cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36f9…4df8backed Sashi Esport53c2,000$1,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,06018356.3%103 W · 80 L+6.8wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4d5a…9ed6backed Sashi Esport53c1,871$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0005362.3%33 W · 20 L+4.9wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+13.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xda34…01a8backed Walczaki47c1,864$876 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$988.0511633.6%39 W · 77 L-0.3wins0.00per pick34cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa960…9407backed Sashi Esport52c1,811$943 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$943.419554.7%52 W · 43 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Walczaki50c1,646$820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$826.062,34942.5%998 W · 1,351 L-72.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xab96…989fbacked Walczaki47c1,557$739 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$818.5222645.1%102 W · 124 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb9b…6df8backed Sashi Esport53c1,500$798 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$797.6955845.7%255 W · 303 L-11.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Sashi Esport54c1,365$742 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$742.134,03848.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L-23.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x324c…93d9backed Sashi Esport2c1,250$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202150.9%2 W · 213 L-1.1wins0.00per pick1cpaid-31.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f17…7035backed Sashi Esport54c1,189$639 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$638.9645465.9%299 W · 155 L+20.8wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xec69…6fbabacked Walczaki47c1,165$546 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$619.0466446.4%308 W · 356 L-11.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4068…aeb1backed Walczaki45c1,082$487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$595.12850%14 W · 14 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+15%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8b4c…1715backed Sashi Esport3c1,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3042427.1%115 W · 309 L+13.8wins+0.03per pick24cpaid+10%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d0c…1249backed Walczaki39c944.57$372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$572.6818338.8%71 W · 112 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-24.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked Walczaki52c863.98$448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$416.091,84841.7%770 W · 1,078 L-69.2wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-21.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa97c…ca21backed Walczaki46c860.79$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$460.79862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.21per pick41cpaid+33%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffd…7821backed Walczaki59c843.38$498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34578043.7%341 W · 439 L-21.5wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6832…831fbacked Walczaki53c765.96$406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$360.214947.7%71 W · 78 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-16.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x03c5…5f61backed Walczaki45c715.29$322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$393.4123732.9%78 W · 159 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-15%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa24a…8382backed Walczaki52c710$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34014248.6%69 W · 73 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe337…1f6fbacked Walczaki43c668.72$286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$383.2226341.1%108 W · 155 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24d2…92c5backed Walczaki50c620$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31012638.9%49 W · 77 L-6.3wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-18.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd2be…78c2backed Walczaki47c600.17$282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$318.095862.1%36 W · 22 L+4.2wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+14.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe8c2…45b2backed Walczaki53c585.34$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275.0640141.6%167 W · 234 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-19.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6dea…e294backed Walczaki49c572$281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.1535848.3%173 W · 185 L+9.1wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Walczaki56c571.19$321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.587,92550.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L+179.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6eac…e409backed Sashi Esport55c555$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.2524551.8%127 W · 118 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ca6…6a20backed Walczaki55c542.57$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.5747447.5%225 W · 249 L-12.7wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-3.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked Sashi Esport55c503.64$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2771,62344.9%728 W · 895 L+4.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x765a…5ce4backed Walczaki47c500$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26514949%73 W · 76 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6dd9…bfe8backed Sashi Esport53c500$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26510653.8%57 W · 49 L+6.4wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+15.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7004…a778backed Sashi Esport53c500$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26530155.8%168 W · 133 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked Walczaki40c458.9$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275.933,20245.6%1,459 W · 1,743 L-79.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d87…df1dbacked Sashi Esport45c455.97$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.1117545.7%80 W · 95 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe401…5c4cbacked Walczaki60c432.72$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.0913350.4%67 W · 66 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc386…386fbacked Sashi Esport51c428.24$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.7525944.8%116 W · 143 L+12.2wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+30%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc0f1…8680backed Sashi Esport52c410$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.12,52243%1,085 W · 1,437 L+42.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d08…5d9fbacked Walczaki53c379.31$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.6620248%97 W · 105 L+7.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x29a5…a3c4backed Sashi Esport47c362.11$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.821,00355.7%559 W · 444 L+24.5wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe123…b4ffbacked Walczaki60c358.43$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.938548.2%41 W · 44 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24b8…6a66backed Sashi Esport42c357.14$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1502763%17 W · 10 L+3.7wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+23.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x85c3…700cbacked Walczaki60c345.38$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.5927549.5%136 W · 139 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7787backed Walczaki47c344.99$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.8420743%89 W · 118 L-14.0wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-13%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf7da…43d9backed Walczaki46c339.99$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.5927156.1%152 W · 119 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb441…f757backed Sashi Esport53c330$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.318754%101 W · 86 L+5.6wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8e34…4480backed Walczaki43c328.46$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.5949935.1%175 W · 324 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7e8…7953backed Sashi Esport64c313.14$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20040449.8%201 W · 203 L+1.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeebb…0b96backed Walczaki50c299.4$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.735839.4%141 W · 217 L+1.3wins0.00per pick39cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x689c…6b1ebacked Sashi Esport54c296.28$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.5527552%143 W · 132 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc6fa…51e5backed Sashi Esport56c294.95$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.1211351.3%58 W · 55 L-4.8wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-8.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5135…7217backed Walczaki48c291.66$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.661,62052.7%853 W · 767 L+57.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Walczaki48c288.39$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.911,61846.8%758 W · 860 L-28.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1065…6218backed Walczaki46c287.15$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.4148240%193 W · 289 L+8.7wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Walczaki36c284.81$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.596,48042.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L-79.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x041b…d3ebbacked Sashi Esport53c283.02$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15031451.6%162 W · 152 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd154…9c74backed Walczaki53c283$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.964046.3%296 W · 344 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-14.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0698…b91dbacked Walczaki45c276.44$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.0415637.2%58 W · 98 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-10.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf868…3b45backed Walczaki45c273$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.1511841.5%49 W · 69 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ae1…c891backed Walczaki47c267.28$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.6311151.4%57 W · 54 L+5.6wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+9.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf0c5…da68backed Walczaki56c236.91$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.249942.4%42 W · 57 L+7.3wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+9.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6326…6329backed Walczaki62c235.3$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.8359343.2%256 W · 337 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Walczaki61c234.14$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.274,06450.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L+69.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3265…cf6bbacked Walczaki45c232.36$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.814331.5%45 W · 98 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb3d…58f5backed Walczaki47c232.35$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.6537855.3%209 W · 169 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x85d8…3cbebacked Walczaki48c208.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.3314843.9%65 W · 83 L+0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5aae…0da3backed Walczaki52c208$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.0414255.6%79 W · 63 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0bfe…5c6cbacked Sashi Esport54c200$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10822954.6%125 W · 104 L+7.9wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1b78…e589backed Sashi Esport53c200$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10635861.7%221 W · 137 L+18.3wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2133…7903backed Walczaki48c195$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.438835.8%139 W · 249 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbdd9…be42backed Sashi Esport53c188.68$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001952.6%10 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-1.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Sashi Esport9c186.22$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.872,62630.9%812 W · 1,814 L-105.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3c09…f399backed Walczaki46c167.99$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.713759.5%22 W · 15 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed Sashi Esport54c167.31$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.972,06150.7%1,045 W · 1,016 L-18.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf0b…7cccbacked Walczaki31c165.63$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11545450.2%228 W · 226 L-12.8wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Walczaki74c161.71$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.822,77637.4%1,038 W · 1,738 L-140.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-20.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0241…fd36backed Sashi Esport52c161.12$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.7740155.1%221 W · 180 L+1.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb52b…9646backed Sashi Esport54c160.35$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.2422059.1%130 W · 90 L+6.2wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xde53…e5bebacked Sashi Esport53c151.46$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.761,26246.9%592 W · 670 L-34.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed Sashi Esport31c146.58$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.422,77424.5%681 W · 2,093 L-295.8wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-50.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x8726…0f36backed Walczaki48c145$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.8874054.6%404 W · 336 L+15.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba8e…8e0dbacked Sashi Esport55c140$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7750358.6%295 W · 208 L-1.0wins0.00per pick59cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09ce…af35backed Walczaki51c136.86$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.0910650.9%54 W · 52 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8766…0ef8backed Sashi Esport40c134.99$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.0412152.9%64 W · 57 L+8.5wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+23%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8ae5…72d2backed Walczaki54c131.95$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.8920154.7%110 W · 91 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f05…a9b9backed Sashi Esport53c125$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.2527459.5%163 W · 111 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc60c…4b05backed Walczaki48c123.73$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.041435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.