TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: MOUZ vs Tundra Esports - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
MOUZof MOUZ, Tundra Esports
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$205,689
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$249,907

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $205,689 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 162 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3833…33d1backed MOUZ38c43,544$16,665 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,879.2142650%213 W · 213 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf9b5…09eebacked Tundra Esports58c41,292$23,752 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,751.8855157%314 W · 237 L+17.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x500f…94bfbacked MOUZ52c20,274$10,641 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,632.5413558.5%79 W · 56 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdcfe…44b5backed Tundra Esports62c16,075$9,956 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,956.0632854.9%180 W · 148 L+11.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed Tundra Esports61c8,895$5,426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,425.9655751.7%288 W · 269 L+16.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed Tundra Esports47c7,403$3,475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,475.2966662.2%414 W · 252 L+60.2wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+10.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0659…d74dbacked Tundra Esports61c6,216$3,823 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,822.8485851.3%440 W · 418 L+30.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed MOUZ39c6,000$2,340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,66010445.2%47 W · 57 L+0.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x084b…3de6backed Tundra Esports60c5,979$3,607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,606.8510741.1%44 W · 63 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-18.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Tundra Esports61c4,293$2,621 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,621.411,15547.8%552 W · 603 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc949…fa93backed Tundra Esports48c4,000$1,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,9208242.7%35 W · 47 L-8.2wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-22.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd06c…cdafbacked Tundra Esports49c3,556$1,760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,759.961,18643.2%512 W · 674 L+42.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x66fb…9f72backed Tundra Esports62c3,226$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00054556.5%308 W · 237 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f04…5fc4backed MOUZ40c3,060$1,211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,848.4731545.4%143 W · 172 L-19.2wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-13.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2586…f071backed MOUZ61c3,058$1,857 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,201.2434468.9%237 W · 107 L+26.3wins+0.08per pick61cpaid+2.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3b63…4acdbacked Tundra Esports62c2,868$1,778 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,777.8416248.8%79 W · 83 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked MOUZ44c2,777$1,223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,553.81,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Tundra Esports53c2,471$1,316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,315.841,57743.9%692 W · 885 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed MOUZ39c2,327$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,427.2596557.4%554 W · 411 L+49.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdb63…a71dbacked Tundra Esports65c2,231$1,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,449.8320159.7%120 W · 81 L+9.9wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb0e3…dd00backed MOUZ35c2,143$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,392.843040%12 W · 18 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed MOUZ36c2,068$741 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,326.677941.1%320 W · 459 L-7.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99e4…e4c4backed Tundra Esports64c1,997$1,271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,27111547%54 W · 61 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfbc2…514cbacked Tundra Esports72c1,592$1,151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,150.9733845.6%154 W · 184 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x689a…97a4backed MOUZ37c1,500$553 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$946.541250%6 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-7.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed MOUZ31c1,398$434 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$964.9665625.6%168 W · 488 L+14.7wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f99…c209backed MOUZ38c1,316$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$815.7912851.6%66 W · 62 L-9.8wins-0.08per pick59cpaid-15.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3542…c3c8backed MOUZ48c1,300$622 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$677.823455.9%19 W · 15 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa474…32cbbacked MOUZ40c1,218$487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$730.553844.4%239 W · 299 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30db…07c3backed MOUZ40c1,123$446 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$676.9154445.8%249 W · 295 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe999…12bdbacked MOUZ36c1,055$381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$674.918156.4%102 W · 79 L+8.9wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x00a1…5062backed MOUZ38c1,053$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$652.6321346.5%99 W · 114 L-8.1wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-10.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1bcb…b05abacked MOUZ36c1,000$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64038049.2%187 W · 193 L+13.1wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+168.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed MOUZ39c1,000$388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61279959.4%475 W · 324 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb04b…e2d4backed MOUZ37c1,000$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63016142.9%69 W · 92 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a38…fee0backed Tundra Esports62c1,000$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62060349.9%301 W · 302 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xcd43…88d7backed MOUZ42c953.91$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$553.9110334%35 W · 68 L-5.0wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-14.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf7c2…9b8dbacked Tundra Esports61c909.57$555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$554.8425549%125 W · 130 L+9.4wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+7.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xebf5…b1d0backed Tundra Esports62c806.45$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50028650%143 W · 143 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e3e…e3ebbacked Tundra Esports61c600$366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36612061.7%74 W · 46 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick63cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf0a…320abacked MOUZ46c600$278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322.0792056.4%519 W · 401 L+78.3wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1b12…5f8fbacked MOUZ39c585.11$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$356.9229548.5%143 W · 152 L+0.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf459…7a53backed MOUZ37c538.83$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$336.8310260.8%62 W · 40 L+5.7wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+9.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xed10…15edbacked MOUZ39c533.9$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$326.4588166.7%588 W · 293 L+76.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+12.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4da1…e6dfbacked MOUZ38c531.58$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$329.586735.8%24 W · 43 L-5.6wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-28.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb279…2c15backed MOUZ59c511.42$301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.51757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-16.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fc2…64d1backed Tundra Esports59c511.14$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.5711043.6%48 W · 62 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+14.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x16ce…eba1backed Tundra Esports4c500$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.756132.1%13 W · 600 L-23.4wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-76.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf679…16acbacked Tundra Esports62c499.98$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.9922954.1%124 W · 105 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x60b4…6313backed Tundra Esports62c483.87$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30016160.2%97 W · 64 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick66cpaid-7.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0738…6392backed Tundra Esports64c468.75$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30021264.2%136 W · 76 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4605…5299backed Tundra Esports47c428.97$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2008833%29 W · 59 L-4.8wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-25.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Tundra Esports61c413.85$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.22,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf3be…f543backed MOUZ74c407.4$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.425457.9%147 W · 107 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe64b…3499backed MOUZ39c400$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2445052%26 W · 24 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16d8…ba9ebacked Tundra Esports61c395.08$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2418750.6%44 W · 43 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7635…63f6backed Tundra Esports20c393$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.64443.2%19 W · 25 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-24.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked MOUZ48c388.51$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.351,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed MOUZ41c386.25$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.312,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f03…7551backed MOUZ39c385.73$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.732560%15 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+8.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7032…0a8bbacked MOUZ39c384.62$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.6255251.6%285 W · 267 L+10.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1709…c148backed Tundra Esports61c372.66$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.1448352.4%253 W · 230 L-2.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfcf2…a469backed Tundra Esports61c371.92$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.4113455.2%74 W · 60 L+7.4wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+2.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3993…cdedbacked MOUZ35c364.94$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.218258.5%48 W · 34 L+5.7wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+15.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0b99…8bddbacked MOUZ43c347.71$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.5677458.5%453 W · 321 L+75.1wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Tundra Esports61c346.82$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.361,27245%572 W · 700 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6503…0c3dbacked Tundra Esports63c319.73$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.068461.9%52 W · 32 L+5.3wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+7.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8240…edebbacked Tundra Esports63c318.17$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x07b0…4758backed Tundra Esports63c316.63$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.13956.4%22 W · 17 L-0.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3260…85ddbacked MOUZ32c300$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2056454.7%35 W · 29 L+7.9wins+0.12per pick42cpaid+16.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x368d…d853backed MOUZ37c300$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18961548.8%300 W · 315 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e19…d2b0backed Tundra Esports62c300$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18612547.2%59 W · 66 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcdca…66ebbacked Tundra Esports61c299.99$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.992864.3%18 W · 10 L+2.7wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+15.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdca4…1c68backed MOUZ33c299.99$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.9964149.9%320 W · 321 L+1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed MOUZ48c299.98$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.9959250.5%299 W · 293 L-20.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-10%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1a12…d212backed Tundra Esports69c289.86$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2008957.3%51 W · 38 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x64a8…7bc3backed MOUZ38c264.93$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.9314661%89 W · 57 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick59cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2aa7…003fbacked Tundra Esports40c249.99$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10045052.4%236 W · 214 L+13.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c52…e75fbacked MOUZ35c245.09$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.6313732.8%45 W · 92 L+8.0wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-15.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5454…ceadbacked MOUZ39c235.68$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.768543.5%37 W · 48 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-6.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed MOUZ43c231.6$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.7433645.5%153 W · 183 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde4b…3b7dbacked Tundra Esports64c224.41$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.5518952.9%100 W · 89 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86e0…c394backed Tundra Esports58c210$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.880742.6%344 W · 463 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x53a5…fc83backed Tundra Esports60c200$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1205446.3%25 W · 29 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbd12…5503backed MOUZ31c200$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1384100%4 W · 0 L+2.9wins+0.72per pick28cpaid+264.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x8031…67e0backed MOUZ49c200$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10273743.6%321 W · 416 L-10.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xac5d…d45fbacked Tundra Esports6c200$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129535.8%34 W · 61 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-22.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4bfc…ce53backed Tundra Esports52c199.99$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.9911647.4%55 W · 61 L-6.3wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-16.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf60c…f540backed MOUZ38c197$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.145362.3%33 W · 20 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8548…e4c1backed Tundra Esports35c196.47$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69850%4 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-23.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x93d1…1a38backed MOUZ52c192.8$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.82138.1%8 W · 13 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+32.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf138…c953backed MOUZ38c189.47$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.4710134.7%35 W · 66 L-11.2wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-35%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xca86…1333backed Tundra Esports64c187.48$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6998…ae95backed Tundra Esports19c180$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.716821.4%36 W · 132 L+0.4wins0.00per pick21cpaid-20.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7d2…83b3backed Tundra Esports65c175.88$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.2911563.5%73 W · 42 L+9.1wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+12.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf11e…3bc1backed MOUZ38c171.05$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.0510741.1%44 W · 63 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x686e…3415backed Tundra Esports67c170.45$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.36520%1 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.38per pick58cpaid-69.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3952…c2b4backed Tundra Esports60c170$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1022157.1%12 W · 9 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+12.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x31e6…a23ebacked MOUZ40c170$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1021963.2%12 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+17.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x16e6…dc3dbacked Tundra Esports61c163.44$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.