NHL · resolved market
Oilers vs. Sharks: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1cde6d0a6cfa5e798f7b4bead8f7ddbf844d212490f7c6117e635bdde91cbc2e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $66,725
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $67,889
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,725 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a2c…9bc1backed Under | 35c | 57,714$20,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,200.05 | 403 | 51.9%209 W · 194 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc257…358ebacked Over | 65c | 57,235$37,171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,063.56 | 485 | 45.4%220 W · 265 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef23…5b60backed Under | 36c | 2,880$1,037 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,036.78 | 642 | 42.2%271 W · 371 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 65c | 2,000$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$700 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb820…cbe7backed Under | 35c | 999.96$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.99 | 101 | 58.4%59 W · 42 L | +7.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 66c | 834.17$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.17 | 472 | 56.8%268 W · 204 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 34c | 829.57$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.1 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e1…f17fbacked Over | 65c | 615.86$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.55 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 15c | 494.45$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.1 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Under | 35c | 432.8$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.48 | 388 | 49.5%192 W · 196 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 76c | 350$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.7 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1683…6906backed Over | 65c | 320$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e3…6dfebacked Over | 65c | 295$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.25 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdcab…b9bbbacked Over | 66c | 280$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.66 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -4.8wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfebb…09fcbacked Under | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 34c | 203$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.46 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under | 10c | 190$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 318 | 28.3%90 W · 228 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8709…7d3dbacked Over | 65c | 184.62$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.62 | 111 | 54.1%60 W · 51 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1150…abe0backed Over | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 34 | 76.5%26 W · 8 L | +5.6wins | +0.16per pick | 60cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Over | 65c | 118.46$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.46 | 696 | 53.4%372 W · 324 L | -16.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Over | 65c | 106$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.1 | 1,054 | 42.5%448 W · 606 L | -25.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15bf…1ea2backed Over | 65c | 77.09$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.98 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f5d…20c8backed Over | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36d5…a33bbacked Over | 65c | 72.31$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Under | 35c | 68.9$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.11 | 477 | 53.9%257 W · 220 L | +18.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Under | 35c | 64.22$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.48 | 456 | 51.5%235 W · 221 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70f9…f25bbacked Over | 65c | 61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.35 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4679…bc44backed Over | 64c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +3.0wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +35%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b2…2e80backed Over | 65c | 53$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.38 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…cf99backed Under | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 167 | 46.1%77 W · 90 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa77f…6039backed Under | 37c | 41.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 32c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 604 | 49.2%297 W · 307 L | -17.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2110…d4fbbacked Over | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 145 | 60.7%88 W · 57 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed Under | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Over | 63c | 29.04$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.74 | 866 | 49.9%432 W · 434 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e96…342abacked Over | 65c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x716c…e3a1backed Over | 64c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50f8…8908backed Over | 64c | 16.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8c4…39a4backed Over | 65c | 16.31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Oilers vs. Sharks: O/U 5.5this page
- Oilers vs. SharksOilers won
- Oilers vs. Sharks: O/U 4.5Over won
- Oilers vs. Sharks: O/U 6.5Over won
- Oilers vs. Sharks: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Oilers (-1.5)Oilers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.