Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on July 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1d71c78b856b1912c83ae4f4b1ac0094b34ae53c75c1a578c26b35075196209a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,148
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,722
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,148 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5500…b4f6backed Yes | 33c | 1,389$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.95 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 73c | 601.17$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.48 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cfe…4325backed Yes | 20c | 510.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 65c | 500.97$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.45 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 17c | 275.78$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 19c | 213.37$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.01 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 36c | 179$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.44 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 36c | 179$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.44 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e0…016abacked No | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce0…6606backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74aa…2c3fbacked No | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 32c | 80$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 80c | 75.26$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddb5…3b48backed Yes | 37c | 62.16$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x170d…064cbacked Yes | 24c | 59.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -4.3wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 66c | 58.47$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.74 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 80c | 55.9$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.41 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 192 | 59.4%114 W · 78 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 25c | 46.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 77c | 43.18$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked Yes | 26c | 40.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a4f…f83bbacked Yes | 38c | 37.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 80c | 34.54$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.98 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 66c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc419…ca5bbacked No | 74c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 62cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 67c | 21.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 73c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 317 | 66.9%212 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3f…e6a2backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 84 | 69%58 W · 26 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf63d…c601backed No | 68c | 15.18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 60cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57ab…a228backed No | 77c | 14.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.32 | 52 | 67.3%35 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 80c | 13.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.63 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on July 21?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on July 21?Yes won
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on July 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.