Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on July 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x022fecaca541ef063d7e23367e7021b51041468732b5379c091d5534ca8c3aff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,495
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,432
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,495 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 35c | 1,896$654 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,241.52 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 66c | 400$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 32c | 309.8$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.68 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 67c | 300$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 67c | 300$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 57c | 224.34$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.39 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 44c | 178.27$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.31 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 70c | 159.97$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.98 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 55c | 149.64$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.85 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 72c | 140.41$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.1 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb65e…190dbacked Yes | 52c | 93.53$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.53 | 84 | 51.2%43 W · 41 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf48…1751backed Yes | 67c | 80$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7adc…a971backed Yes | 51c | 78.31$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.43 | 150 | 40%60 W · 90 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd212…5182backed No | 48c | 76.64$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.79 | 135 | 51.1%69 W · 66 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 47c | 75.26$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.13 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 46c | 60.63$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 59c | 58.47$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.34 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 66c | 57.15$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 59c | 57$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.42 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 27c | 54.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.79 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 68c | 47.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…8a6cbacked No | 49c | 46.31$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 38c | 44.61$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.76 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 52c | 44.2$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.22 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 66c | 44$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.04 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 55c | 43$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.43 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae19…5cb0backed No | 67c | 42.31$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0e3b…05aabacked Yes | 41c | 42.02$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.73 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c1…5b62backed Yes | 31c | 41.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.56 | 158 | 29.7%47 W · 111 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +18%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 63c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 67c | 39.4$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 69c | 37.97$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a4f…f83bbacked Yes | 31c | 37.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.2 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 33c | 34.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb6…f6dfbacked Yes | 43c | 33.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +74.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 49c | 32.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 42c | 30.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x308f…8607backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -4.7wins | -0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd263…0cc3backed Yes | 44c | 29.17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.29 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc9…d91cbacked Yes | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 68c | 27.05$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.66 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 66c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked Yes | 59c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 297 | 69.4%206 W · 91 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc865…7477backed No | 45c | 23.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -34.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xdbbe…ddf5backed Yes | 67c | 22.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.42 | 43 | 67.4%29 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9518…9e0cbacked Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | -7.5wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 73c | 18.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 72c | 18.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 317 | 66.9%212 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 72c | 18.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b47…da4abacked No | 70c | 16.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfec4…cfc8backed No | 69c | 15.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 69cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1073…d8babacked Yes | 77c | 15.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.66 | 48 | 79.2%38 W · 10 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb8…7809backed No | 68c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 135 | 54.1%73 W · 62 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on July 21?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on July 21?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on July 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.