Lol · resolved market
Game Handicap: FNC (-1.5) vs Shifters (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1d8786e5f03f0edc4d95872ef13dabed077e003e1fec051bdb8938415e147125
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Shiftersof Fnatic, Shifters
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,506
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,474
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,506 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa5ea…d96abacked Shifters | 60c | 7,113$4,268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,845.3 | 559 | 55.8%312 W · 247 L | +50.8wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc44f…d49fbacked Fnatic | 40c | 5,744$2,298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,297.6 | 572 | 46%263 W · 309 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1341…0853backed Shifters | 59c | 2,809$1,644 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,165.09 | 1,827 | 45.6%834 W · 993 L | +26.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa5…ff32backed Fnatic | 40c | 2,558$1,025 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,025.33 | 1,225 | 49.6%607 W · 618 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b49…0397backed Fnatic | 39c | 1,799$702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$701.76 | 73 | 38.4%28 W · 45 L | -6.8wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x48b8…4b69backed Shifters | 61c | 1,500$915 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$585 | 106 | 48.1%51 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf29…834cbacked Fnatic | 41c | 1,300$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24d4…4e1dbacked Fnatic | 42c | 1,137$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.74 | 271 | 42.4%115 W · 156 L | -15.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf3b…0375backed Fnatic | 40c | 1,120$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.13 | 376 | 47.9%180 W · 196 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8056…b64dbacked Shifters | 60c | 1,009$608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.26 | 282 | 53.5%151 W · 131 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x802b…7d57backed Fnatic | 40c | 1,006$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.56 | 170 | 41.8%71 W · 99 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Fnatic | 42c | 887.99$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.95 | 1,609 | 48.4%779 W · 830 L | +24.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x791e…9bdabacked Shifters | 61c | 765.57$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.57 | 321 | 45.5%146 W · 175 L | +11.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc463…9a2fbacked Fnatic | 39c | 743.5$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.97 | 127 | 54.3%69 W · 58 L | +8.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xffc7…2259backed Shifters | 60c | 657.37$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.89 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +5.5wins | +0.15per pick | 43cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4031…c848backed Fnatic | 40c | 625$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbde6…e8b5backed Shifters | 61c | 600$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234 | 300 | 50.3%151 W · 149 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93f4…ea90backed Shifters | 58c | 600$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252 | 1,110 | 49%544 W · 566 L | +42.0wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed08…e082backed Shifters | 60c | 550$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 198 | 60.1%119 W · 79 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcea6…67adbacked Fnatic | 40c | 500$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 281 | 50.5%142 W · 139 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb70c…41d5backed Shifters | 59c | 500$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fcb…78cfbacked Fnatic | 39c | 500$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197 | 647 | 49.9%323 W · 324 L | -24.9wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Fnatic | 42c | 497$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.72 | 2,226 | 37.5%834 W · 1,392 L | -29.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0636…c529backed Shifters | 60c | 491.98$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.79 | 112 | 49.1%55 W · 57 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4b…8a81backed Shifters | 61c | 404.73$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.84 | 212 | 49.1%104 W · 108 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a2…b3cdbacked Shifters | 58c | 345.08$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.08 | 71 | 40.8%29 W · 42 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | 0%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99fe…b61cbacked Shifters | 58c | 341.18$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.3 | 362 | 46.4%168 W · 194 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7253…0558backed Shifters | 61c | 327.87$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.87 | 182 | 36.8%67 W · 115 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b55…d74bbacked Shifters | 57c | 300$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129 | 866 | 49.7%430 W · 436 L | +18.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf035…0924backed Fnatic | 43c | 300$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.8 | 340 | 50%170 W · 170 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94a1…2075backed Shifters | 58c | 292.44$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.82 | 270 | 50.7%137 W · 133 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0b…612abacked Fnatic | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 440 | 46.4%204 W · 236 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3b…5fa5backed Shifters | 58c | 203.36$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.41 | 650 | 63.2%411 W · 239 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda63…b031backed Shifters | 61c | 200$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Fnatic | 13c | 196.34$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 143 | 38.5%55 W · 88 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Fnatic | 39c | 167$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.13 | 299 | 52.2%156 W · 143 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e60…449abacked Fnatic | 10c | 120$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e86…7932backed Shifters | 60c | 101.67$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.67 | 611 | 50.6%309 W · 302 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87ed…b497backed Shifters | 56c | 95.05$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.82 | 390 | 56.4%220 W · 170 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Fnatic | 41c | 90$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.9 | 1,241 | 34.7%431 W · 810 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Fnatic | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 316 | 50.3%159 W · 157 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e8f…4374backed Fnatic | 44c | 57.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 203 | 32%65 W · 138 L | -16.2wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Fnatic | 37c | 55.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 1,239 | 37.3%462 W · 777 L | -39.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -27%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9d…5d14backed Shifters | 60c | 52.05$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 110 | 58.2%64 W · 46 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa1c…e369backed Fnatic | 39c | 51.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 215 | 46%99 W · 116 L | -8.8wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e4…24c2backed Shifters | 58c | 50.65$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.41 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | -8.0wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6c41…42ebbacked Fnatic | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 121 | 47.1%57 W · 64 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa516…235cbacked Fnatic | 78c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.83 | 324 | 47.5%154 W · 170 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5f…8eadbacked Shifters | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 128 | 45.3%58 W · 70 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43f5…40d0backed Shifters | 58c | 47.79$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.07 | 60 | 63.3%38 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54e0…b02cbacked Shifters | 29c | 45.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.02 | 1,134 | 31%352 W · 782 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8f…de8abacked Fnatic | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 793 | 45.4%360 W · 433 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e57…831dbacked Fnatic | 76c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 187 | 57.2%107 W · 80 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b96…7f2dbacked Shifters | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a16…de20backed Shifters | 62c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 274 | 55.8%153 W · 121 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c38…fd63backed Fnatic | 64c | 31.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 95 | 64.2%61 W · 34 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e8…5289backed Fnatic | 74c | 31.08$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 157 | 59.2%93 W · 64 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddae…7d66backed Shifters | 61c | 29.62$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 128 | 57.8%74 W · 54 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Shifters | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 528 | 48.9%258 W · 270 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa485…a7d5backed Fnatic | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 253 | 45.8%116 W · 137 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa941…ec2ebacked Shifters | 60c | 22.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 511 | 60.3%308 W · 203 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1eb…1240backed Fnatic | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 84 | 64.3%54 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: FNC (-1.5) vs Shifters (+1.5)this page
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
- LoL: Fnatic vs Shifters (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier PlayoffsFnatic won
- LoL: Fnatic vs Shifters - Game 1 WinnerFnatic won
- LoL: Fnatic vs Shifters - Game 2 WinnerShifters won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.