NHL · resolved market
Blues vs. Kings: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1d945e5dde0a65530ef26f24d229ea7430c3bd2d3a758ace03655bc511a9fbb0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,688
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,843
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,688 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2e65…4994backed Under | 29c | 7,453$2,171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,281.83 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 71c | 1,996$1,410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,410.08 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 70c | 1,017$711 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$710.85 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 72c | 729.17$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525 | 1,230 | 53.7%661 W · 569 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1d…1f8fbacked Over | 72c | 626.49$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.06 | 184 | 53.8%99 W · 85 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 71c | 537$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.98 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 71c | 528.38$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.43 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 71c | 493$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.03 | 831 | 49.5%411 W · 420 L | -9.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 37c | 463.53$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.21 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 65c | 432.54$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.1 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe02…1204backed Under | 27c | 340.74$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.74 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed Over | 73c | 325.88$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.89 | 623 | 46.9%292 W · 331 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Over | 67c | 314.5$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.6 | 105 | 40%42 W · 63 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 63c | 303.6$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.71 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c50…2de6backed Over | 73c | 302$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.46 | 78 | 53.8%42 W · 36 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6203…5544backed Over | 70c | 200$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e0…457fbacked Over | 73c | 191$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.43 | 98 | 49%48 W · 50 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59ce…6f07backed Over | 72c | 180$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.6 | 153 | 49%75 W · 78 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…e162backed Over | 73c | 119$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.87 | 110 | 58.2%64 W · 46 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…cf99backed Over | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 167 | 46.1%77 W · 90 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 75c | 98.1$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.66 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 38c | 93.13$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.39 | 355 | 51%181 W · 174 L | +18.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa24f…7c58backed Over | 23c | 88.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 69 | 33.3%23 W · 46 L | -7.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…7156backed Over | 73c | 79$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.67 | 152 | 48%73 W · 79 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Over | 34c | 65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 1,054 | 42.5%448 W · 606 L | -25.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c5…b613backed Over | 74c | 61$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.14 | 103 | 59.2%61 W · 42 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Over | 26c | 59.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 214 | 63.1%135 W · 79 L | +16.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +11%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Over | 70c | 42.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 243 | 46.1%112 W · 131 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Over | 73c | 41.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 565 | 53.6%303 W · 262 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd53b…fc94backed Over | 76c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 41c | 31.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Over | 73c | 31.4$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.92 | 355 | 53%188 W · 167 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Over | 73c | 31$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.63 | 222 | 55.9%124 W · 98 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ca…e04dbacked Over | 71c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31c8…9487backed Over | 62c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x334f…5886backed Over | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe9…d943backed Over | 73c | 24.77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…d603backed Over | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 165 | 49.7%82 W · 83 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a3a…f788backed Over | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Over | 72c | 17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 211 | 55.5%117 W · 94 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba2e…7799backed Over | 73c | 16.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +3.6wins | +0.33per pick | 40cpaid | +103.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Blues vs. Kings: O/U 4.5this page
- Blues vs. KingsKings won
- Blues vs. Kings: O/U 5.5Under won
- Blues vs. Kings: O/U 6.5Under won
- Blues vs. Kings: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Kings (-1.5)Blues won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.