Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on August 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1dab94f1fb9bd55733d7b20c8b9bb18960448e6076ac63b88e56365199c25897
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,072
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,503
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,072 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked Yes | 1c | 12,007$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.98 | 264 | 42.4%112 W · 152 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 50c | 658.55$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.64 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 36c | 557.35$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.6 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc17…886abacked No | 60c | 475$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.11 | 72 | 81.9%59 W · 13 L | +8.8wins | +0.12per pick | 70cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5074…977bbacked No | 76c | 356.96$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.88 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +4.7wins | +0.21per pick | 52cpaid | +47%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 21c | 260.14$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.77 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 66c | 225$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.5 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 39c | 190.65$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.97 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 37c | 175.6$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.41 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 39c | 171$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.69 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2549…c8b1backed Yes | 52c | 159.32$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.46 | 81 | 39.5%32 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 34c | 154.23$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.37 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3de0…e68cbacked Yes | 74c | 135.95$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…b6c5backed No | 74c | 134.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.93 | 183 | 47%86 W · 97 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 45c | 131.35$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.88 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 28c | 122.71$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.53 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c43…1608backed Yes | 41c | 117.07$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe44b…bf9bbacked No | 79c | 114$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.28 | 23 | 78.3%18 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 70cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58a3…c5cebacked No | 64c | 111.51$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.43 | 77 | 48.1%37 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked No | 38c | 105.99$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.21 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed Yes | 27c | 102.48$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18ec…f311backed No | 64c | 101$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.36 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 29c | 100.62$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb259…9207backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 110 | 27.3%30 W · 80 L | -22.3wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…149bbacked No | 61c | 95.33$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.18 | 205 | 69.8%143 W · 62 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 58c | 88$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.04 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x811a…9a3cbacked Yes | 30c | 85.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 76c | 85.08$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked Yes | 23c | 84.73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 155 | 34.8%54 W · 101 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ec…3a46backed Yes | 15c | 83.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0c…ef83backed No | 66c | 78.74$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.77 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 64c | 78$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.08 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 75c | 74.8$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.69 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa30f…4da6backed Yes | 26c | 72.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 211 | 32.2%68 W · 143 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 23c | 70.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbc1c…545abacked Yes | 45c | 69.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.29 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8b…b7b8backed Yes | 17c | 63.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 72c | 62.54$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.63 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 33c | 60.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 28c | 60$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 32c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 70c | 58.23$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Yes | 24c | 57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 88 | 30.7%27 W · 61 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 22c | 55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc5d…2a43backed Yes | 62c | 54.71$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8c…9a58backed No | 74c | 49.36$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.07 | 135 | 44.4%60 W · 75 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb407…6eb1backed Yes | 27c | 48.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 46c | 48.36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.48 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 45c | 48.32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b98…925ebacked Yes | 32c | 47.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 138 | 42.8%59 W · 79 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +164.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 68c | 42.82$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.56 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 70c | 41.34$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 44c | 41.02$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…9fb8backed Yes | 73c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 270 | 37.4%101 W · 169 L | +12.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 40c | 39.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 28c | 37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 59c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.35 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 70c | 33.03$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 74c | 32.81$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.53 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 35c | 32.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 67c | 32.07$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.58 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 44c | 31.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.68 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked Yes | 33c | 31.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 72c | 31.24$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 67c | 28.07$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.26 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a16…6004backed Yes | 69c | 27.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 33 | 69.7%23 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 42c | 27.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.17 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5938…7788backed Yes | 59c | 24.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed No | 71c | 22.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.52 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80fe…64e2backed Yes | 47c | 21.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a7…2657backed No | 72c | 20.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.71 | 183 | 28.4%52 W · 131 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe13b…6747backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18c3…2a14backed Yes | 64c | 19.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked No | 60c | 18.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 182 | 47.3%86 W · 96 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 69c | 18.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 58c | 17.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed No | 68c | 14.71$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on August 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on August 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on August 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.