MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Chicago Cubs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1dcf3a6da86b9cc94234e26c03c5556ff7f1f533c0ef5d2e78bd83047e254815
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,929
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,487
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,929 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Yes | 47c | 622.13$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.76 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8713…4007backed No | 53c | 564.47$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed No | 49c | 432.7$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.02 | 112 | 56.3%63 W · 49 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f2d…df85backed Yes | 50c | 202.32$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.45 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed No | 49c | 163.57$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.15 | 186 | 48.4%90 W · 96 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc5…d36ebacked Yes | 51c | 142.74$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.94 | 61 | 59%36 W · 25 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0c…7c83backed Yes | 51c | 134.16$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.74 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0edb…92c3backed Yes | 45c | 130.04$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…7e96backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed No | 56c | 89.45$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 430 | 43%185 W · 245 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5657…6c86backed No | 53c | 55.01$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.15 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6dc…ab58backed Yes | 51c | 47.07$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.07 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -5.4wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x39c6…0ac1backed Yes | 51c | 42.71$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.93 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4589…5ea9backed Yes | 51c | 38.06$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.65 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed Yes | 55c | 34.44$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 267 | 62.2%166 W · 101 L | +43.9wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +58%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 43c | 34.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Yes | 65c | 33.29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.62 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18c7…7613backed No | 52c | 24.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Chicago Cubsthis page
- New York Mets vs. Chicago CubsChicago Cubs won
- New York Mets vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 12.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 13.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 14.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 15.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 16.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-4.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-5.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-6.5)Chicago Cubs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.