TailMyPicks
Market

MLB · resolved market

New York Mets vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$256,816
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$258,066

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $256,816 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5ae1…9fadbacked Under48c191,324$91,978 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91,978.086943.5%30 W · 39 L-4.3wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-10.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Over51c89,529$45,660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43,869.4531039%121 W · 189 L-10.5wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-20.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x99a7…fc82backed Over53c55,555$29,444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,110.8514248.6%69 W · 73 L-0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over52c25,008$13,089 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,918.571,35549.8%675 W · 680 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfea3…d227backed Over54c7,318$3,962 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,356.732259.1%13 W · 9 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+21%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfdf2…23e3backed Over57c5,122$2,923 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,198.791100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Under45c5,086$2,289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,289.321,02951.2%527 W · 502 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a08…64a7backed Under46c5,034$2,316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,315.771353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Over52c5,000$2,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,40055053.6%295 W · 255 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x085e…9aeabacked Under50c3,635$1,816 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,815.788353%44 W · 39 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa51…a910backed Over53c3,500$1,855 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,6451266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.3wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+33.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x116c…e162backed Under46c3,461$1,581 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,581.4336649.2%180 W · 186 L-10.5wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Over50c2,549$1,274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,275.26,12355.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L+346.0wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Under47c2,432$1,145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,145.391,01048.1%486 W · 524 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6fb…ee11backed Over53c2,119$1,118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,000.6965749.2%323 W · 334 L+0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d5f…3222backed Under8c2,056$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.392941.4%12 W · 17 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6001…0457backed Over52c1,907$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$906.6518553.5%99 W · 86 L+6.8wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Under12c1,642$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.9451555%283 W · 232 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c58…e330backed Over51c1,512$764 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$748.4488153.7%473 W · 408 L+40.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+10.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8c50…2de6backed Over52c1,356$705 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$650.6512154.5%66 W · 55 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over70c1,339$936 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$402.6712,32846.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L-66.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3df…82fabacked Over55c1,267$699 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$568.4648850.2%245 W · 243 L+5.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Over52c1,000$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4801,30150.2%653 W · 648 L+19.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2037…473dbacked Under45c1,000$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4501926.3%5 W · 14 L-4.8wins-0.25per pick52cpaid-48.8%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under43c974.21$418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$417.615,47150.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L+21.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Over52c962$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$461.761,53848.6%747 W · 791 L-5.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked Under21c800.02$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.9516132.3%52 W · 109 L-10.9wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-24.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbb58…86a4backed Over55c755.76$416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.097343.8%32 W · 41 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-6.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4483…c565backed Over51c737.96$376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361.625751.8%133 W · 124 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2528…b77dbacked Over53c501.55$267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.121,63055.2%899 W · 731 L+2.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebe6…9278backed Under43c500$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2152,10451.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L+11.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2714…960fbacked Over52c485.6$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.0985952.6%452 W · 407 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04e3…69d1backed Under54c400$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2161136.4%4 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.18per pick55cpaid-36.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x96d9…18a0backed Over53c388.72$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.722848.2%110 W · 118 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4e4…4a19backed Over71c345.96$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.726684.8%56 W · 10 L+15.1wins+0.23per pick62cpaid+34.5%equal weight68+0.17 edge/pick
0x8728…0882backed Under43c342.47$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.2617652.8%93 W · 83 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Under43c286.64$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.922,32949.8%1,160 W · 1,169 L+41.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Under41c243.72$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.592,38943.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L-25.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a4d…4c76backed Over54c241.34$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.6513552.6%71 W · 64 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x959b…64edbacked Over55c221.22$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.63253.1%17 W · 15 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Under47c206$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.821,68150.1%842 W · 839 L-22.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b65…6b1bbacked Over53c201.69$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.8616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.31per pick47cpaid-68.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Under46c185.65$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.061,76951.6%912 W · 857 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6683…f5f4backed Over53c184.64$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.7824748.2%119 W · 128 L-9.3wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-6.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xeba1…44dfbacked Over54c183.78$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.541936.8%7 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-21.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0cf0…21efbacked Under44c182.3$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.2130%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd17a…0373backed Over55c179.02$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.5278550.2%394 W · 391 L+2.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Over53c174.36$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.576,99950.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L+2.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Under43c164.15$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.591,05347.3%498 W · 555 L-14.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xedf7…8f79backed Over52c144.22$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.2339948.1%192 W · 207 L-1.7wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6047…7314backed Over52c130.65$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.711100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Under42c117$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.141,34547.7%642 W · 703 L+10.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6932…6878backed Over52c106.83$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.2827045.9%124 W · 146 L+0.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe624…2928backed Under48c105$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.449649.8%247 W · 249 L+11.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x82b8…8924backed Under47c103$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.417251.4%37 W · 35 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaab6…607ebacked Under47c100$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.527248.5%132 W · 140 L-1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b5d…adc4backed Under48c99.79$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.94060%24 W · 16 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cf8…e6a5backed Over58c99.35$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.43250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-14.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93ac…2761backed Over52c96.21$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.182,58861.5%1,591 W · 997 L+72.3wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4259…77c1backed Over52c95.28$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.832,24357.6%1,293 W · 950 L+37.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x12b4…a662backed Over54c95.1$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.041,13357.2%648 W · 485 L+35.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x163e…324fbacked Under48c92.84$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.56333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.22per pick55cpaid-44.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x10cf…1cfbbacked Under42c77.07$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.5533547.5%159 W · 176 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Over54c76.99$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.641,04349%511 W · 532 L+3.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec15…9b0cbacked Under46c75.73$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.838845.5%40 W · 48 L+4.3wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+14.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Over52c72.6$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.851,26951.1%648 W · 621 L+23.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd281…d824backed Under44c69.19$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.4410449%51 W · 53 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9fe5…7936backed Under43c67.38$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.9719248.4%93 W · 99 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8482…3f7abacked Over69c60$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.81,06249.2%523 W · 539 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Over51c59.73$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.279,81946.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L+39.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Over53c59.62$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.3128352.3%148 W · 135 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1bf7…6f57backed Over52c58.27$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.9711250%56 W · 56 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Over52c58.22$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.9867849.3%334 W · 344 L+7.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70fc…ab12backed Under48c56.98$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.351,37454.2%745 W · 629 L+16.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0520…3efdbacked Under53c56.48$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9353261.8%329 W · 203 L+20.6wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+4.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3f98…ec35backed Over54c49.18$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.6213144.3%58 W · 73 L-5.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-10.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed Under45c48.86$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.232,37547.3%1,123 W · 1,252 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Under46c43.43$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.982,54645.9%1,168 W · 1,378 L-74.1wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-15%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9221…9419backed Under44c41.18$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.128751.7%45 W · 42 L+0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid+4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9555…889abacked Over58c39.5$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.591,00157.3%574 W · 427 L+2.3wins0.00per pick57cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1643…6ec8backed Over75c39.4$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.721668.8%11 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick61cpaid+8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x50c3…ace1backed Under46c39.39$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.387453%463 W · 411 L+16.5wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x14fb…4ecdbacked Under46c38.7$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.81040%4 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-29.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa975…42eebacked Over52c37.35$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.9337747.2%178 W · 199 L-10.8wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0eca…c56abacked Under46c36.86$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1449942.9%214 W · 285 L-31.5wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-20.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2b78…c6b5backed Over54c36.12$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.7512761.4%78 W · 49 L+8.3wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+11%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc798…a8e9backed Under48c35.72$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1510649.1%52 W · 54 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x51d8…7536backed Under50c32.8$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.45728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.23per pick52cpaid-48.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Over53c32.61$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.3378146.4%362 W · 419 L+11.8wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6691…8a8ebacked Over55c30.92$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.92966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+36.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Over52c28.48$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.671,05750.2%531 W · 526 L+23.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8db2…f8a2backed Over52c28.18$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.534647.8%22 W · 24 L+4.5wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+3.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb0f4…6fa9backed Over46c25.16$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.591,77758.4%1,037 W · 740 L+91.8wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+3.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1dd2…9e07backed Over52c24.8$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.9167653.1%359 W · 317 L+29.1wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1a59…a57ebacked Under49c22.2$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7867742.2%286 W · 391 L-36.7wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-18%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc55d…405abacked Over54c22.17$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.294959.2%29 W · 20 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+13.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9a81…9070backed Over54c20.8$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.5727252.9%144 W · 128 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa0c5…4291backed Over58c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.46956.5%39 W · 30 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd78e…6421backed Over52c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.623750.6%120 W · 117 L-11.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-7.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb0d6…10d9backed Over59c19.51$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$835547.3%168 W · 187 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.