TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Chicago Cubsof Chicago Cubs, New York Mets
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$30,708
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$34,192

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,708 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x116c…e162backed Chicago Cubs43c3,201$1,385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,815.8536649.2%180 W · 186 L-10.5wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked New York Mets57c1,996$1,142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,141.591,90953.5%1,021 W · 888 L+29.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed New York Mets26c1,840$473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$473.349,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed New York Mets58c1,672$962 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$962.1623538.3%90 W · 145 L-8.5wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed New York Mets57c1,259$718 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$717.868360.2%50 W · 33 L+8.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+19.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa048…dd23backed New York Mets58c1,131$656 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$655.853441.2%14 W · 20 L-3.9wins-0.12per pick53cpaid-18.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked New York Mets57c1,040$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$590.181,76951.6%912 W · 857 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Chicago Cubs42c1,033$434 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$599.11,01048.1%486 W · 524 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x96dd…ff8ebacked New York Mets56c918.4$514 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$514.3955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+17.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa877…2e20backed New York Mets58c915.92$528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$527.9572648.1%349 W · 377 L-17.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2513…91fbbacked Chicago Cubs41c913.26$374 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$538.837248.6%35 W · 37 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked New York Mets58c882.19$512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$511.671,52148.6%739 W · 782 L-5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f97…4059backed New York Mets59c830.7$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$490.1110157.4%58 W · 43 L+5.7wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+13.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0767…36b0backed Chicago Cubs41c801.29$329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$472.767750.6%39 W · 38 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e4a…eee7backed New York Mets56c713.98$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.8330844.2%136 W · 172 L-10.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xef62…cf76backed New York Mets57c562.3$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.5110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b5d…adc4backed Chicago Cubs65c556.09$359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.084060%24 W · 16 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed New York Mets14c546.25$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.312,38943.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L-25.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaad3…f49ebacked Chicago Cubs42c519.25$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.071866.7%12 W · 6 L+2.6wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+33.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed New York Mets14c503.37$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.1712,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36b3…e421backed New York Mets58c495.8$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.5740341.4%167 W · 236 L-20.0wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-13.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Chicago Cubs44c471.99$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.821,35549.8%675 W · 680 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda75…bbf9backed Chicago Cubs43c464.32$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.6611450.9%58 W · 56 L-0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x938e…9b66backed New York Mets11c420.52$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.3448150.7%244 W · 237 L-19.3wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0ac…4ec7backed New York Mets16c394.05$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.291,17329%340 W · 833 L-0.3wins0.00per pick29cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Chicago Cubs42c330.13$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.476,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x55a6…eeb0backed Chicago Cubs43c321.18$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.084951%25 W · 24 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b1a…d790backed New York Mets57c311.77$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.719945.5%45 W · 54 L-5.1wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-10.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc33d…0d40backed New York Mets8c275.9$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.0143043%185 W · 245 L-13.6wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-19.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2160…bcb3backed Chicago Cubs43c269.53$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.6366448.2%320 W · 344 L-1.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed New York Mets46c254.76$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.246,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa21b…9e94backed New York Mets12c236.8$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.4248651%248 W · 238 L-18.0wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x797f…f08abacked Chicago Cubs43c229.1$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.598050%40 W · 40 L+4.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+11.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x363d…fe75backed Chicago Cubs43c224.82$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.3721242.5%90 W · 122 L-13.7wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-7.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8180…208bbacked Chicago Cubs43c224.67$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.0618151.4%93 W · 88 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4be6…b010backed Chicago Cubs43c224.6$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.0226747.9%128 W · 139 L-6.8wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe649…4e37backed Chicago Cubs43c224.6$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.0256946.9%267 W · 302 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed New York Mets11c212.04$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.3278146.4%362 W · 419 L+11.8wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x81b0…858cbacked Chicago Cubs70c210.43$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.1320552.7%108 W · 97 L+12.1wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+12.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0cf0…21efbacked New York Mets57c170.91$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.4230%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed New York Mets57c164$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.762,29649.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L+37.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f2d…df85backed New York Mets31c154.76$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.931457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.6wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+17.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Chicago Cubs61c152.73$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.623,20851.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L+146.6wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed New York Mets58c131.23$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.482,36947.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L-11.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8c58…e330backed Chicago Cubs48c123.52$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.4688053.8%473 W · 407 L+41.0wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5d05…f729backed New York Mets57c120.22$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.5220044.5%89 W · 111 L-8.6wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-5.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5668…eababacked Chicago Cubs43c112.3$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.018351.8%43 W · 40 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec14…7fafbacked Chicago Cubs43c112.3$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.0147849%234 W · 244 L+14.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed New York Mets30c108.29$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3284122.7%191 W · 650 L-81.4wins-0.10per pick32cpaid-29.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x209e…8bb4backed New York Mets58c107.26$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.2612850%64 W · 64 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed New York Mets56c104.38$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.4567849.3%334 W · 344 L+7.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x656e…b45abacked Chicago Cubs42c103.53$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.09633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-28.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7634…600dbacked Chicago Cubs42c100$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5860350.1%302 W · 301 L-10.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x02ea…220cbacked New York Mets25c95.5$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.886434.4%22 W · 42 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-16.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x44e7…19a8backed Chicago Cubs54c82.83$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.14436.4%16 W · 28 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick30cpaid+24.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf213…a627backed Chicago Cubs43c81.13$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.2468942.2%291 W · 398 L+18.7wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5bda…17a8backed Chicago Cubs42c75$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.51,75350.8%890 W · 863 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4533…e6bbbacked New York Mets34c71.31$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243941%16 W · 23 L-3.8wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-19.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa24d…38b2backed Chicago Cubs43c67.38$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.41714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.4wins-0.34per pick48cpaid-66.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5b2e…d2abbacked Chicago Cubs44c66.34$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.3512548%60 W · 65 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked New York Mets57c62.38$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.3716132.3%52 W · 109 L-10.9wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-24.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcd39…b24cbacked Chicago Cubs43c56.15$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.01540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-18.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a77…4fcfbacked Chicago Cubs53c55.38$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.235448.1%26 W · 28 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Chicago Cubs66c54.33$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.4710,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0905…e5c0backed Chicago Cubs43c54.05$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.811,66143.5%722 W · 939 L-0.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaab6…607ebacked New York Mets57c50$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.527248.5%132 W · 140 L-1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2ca…d984backed Chicago Cubs43c44.92$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.638353.8%206 W · 177 L+16.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1c39…442dbacked New York Mets31c43.71$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4223522.6%53 W · 182 L-20.7wins-0.09per pick31cpaid-30.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1a51…f873backed Chicago Cubs49c39.54$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.151060%6 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+17.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Chicago Cubs43c37.14$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.046,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Chicago Cubs43c33.77$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.251,05750.2%531 W · 526 L+23.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4add…8f36backed Chicago Cubs43c33.37$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.8711855.9%66 W · 52 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-3.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed New York Mets56c33$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.4828352.3%148 W · 135 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked New York Mets57c30.66$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.474,38144.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L+77.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e6c…e09cbacked Chicago Cubs56c29.19$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.7545246.2%209 W · 243 L-18.9wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-11%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8db2…f8a2backed Chicago Cubs69c28.45$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.824647.8%22 W · 24 L+4.5wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+3.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6d49…e00abacked Chicago Cubs51c21.52$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.5566749.3%329 W · 338 L-22.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd78e…6421backed New York Mets58c19.5$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3123750.6%120 W · 117 L-11.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-7.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3397…ac80backed New York Mets57c19.48$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5aa…4464backed New York Mets58c18.94$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9928850.3%145 W · 143 L+0.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c31…0a94backed New York Mets57c17.57$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.