NBA · resolved market
Spread: Pistons (-10.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1deb4ebaf457f082eb3eb8672742dc3b2f6839e637d7182da7b74ebddf3d8433
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pacersof Pistons, Pacers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,029
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,820
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,029 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e2f…ec47backed Pacers | 53c | 7,083$3,754 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,329 | 747 | 48.5%362 W · 385 L | +8.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Pistons | 47c | 4,641$2,197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,196.81 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Pistons | 48c | 3,843$1,848 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,847.98 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2900…af64backed Pacers | 53c | 3,333$1,766 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,566.5 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x437c…f458backed Pacers | 52c | 1,400$728 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$672 | 143 | 56.6%81 W · 62 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x00ce…3f01backed Pistons | 52c | 1,047$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547.66 | 321 | 51.7%166 W · 155 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda21…8646backed Pistons | 47c | 1,012$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.6 | 625 | 41.9%262 W · 363 L | -32.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Pacers | 49c | 957.89$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.32 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Pistons | 47c | 923.3$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.95 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Pistons | 48c | 730.41$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.25 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Pistons | 47c | 632.69$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.44 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…c9fdbacked Pistons | 47c | 519.15$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244 | 182 | 41.2%75 W · 107 L | -17.6wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Pacers | 52c | 509.75$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.68 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd4…6ebcbacked Pacers | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e84…768ebacked Pacers | 51c | 490.2$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.2 | 136 | 44.9%61 W · 75 L | -7.7wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Pacers | 54c | 400$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184 | 701 | 53.5%375 W · 326 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabf4…d167backed Pacers | 54c | 370.37$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.37 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Pistons | 46c | 345.37$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.41 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f1c…5f43backed Pistons | 49c | 326.53$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1377…56aebacked Pistons | 48c | 320$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.6 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Pistons | 48c | 292.97$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.8 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Pacers | 53c | 250$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.5 | 956 | 41.7%399 W · 557 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Pistons | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 366 | 49.5%181 W · 185 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Pistons | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e79…ff8bbacked Pistons | 50c | 199.76$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 174 | 56.9%99 W · 75 L | +10.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x443d…017fbacked Pacers | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 235 | 50.2%118 W · 117 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…3c72backed Pistons | 46c | 166.25$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.81 | 266 | 51.1%136 W · 130 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Pistons | 48c | 156.25$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 930 | 36.5%339 W · 591 L | -20.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Pistons | 47c | 111$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.17 | 658 | 55.6%366 W · 292 L | +27.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cee…5829backed Pacers | 54c | 109.11$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.19 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Pacers | 26c | 109.11$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.74 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d3…e601backed Pistons | 47c | 100.32$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.15 | 135 | 50.4%68 W · 67 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Pistons | 47c | 81$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.07 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d4…2bacbacked Pacers | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.43 | 478 | 56.5%270 W · 208 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x547f…016dbacked Pistons | 47c | 64$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.08 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Pistons | 47c | 55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.85 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Pistons | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e3f…5bc1backed Pacers | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed Pistons | 52c | 31.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 327 | 43.4%142 W · 185 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97f1…c325backed Pistons | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed Pacers | 76c | 18.24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.38 | 524 | 60.1%315 W · 209 L | +35.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Pistons (-10.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Pistons (-5.5)Pistons won
- Pistons vs. PacersPistons won
- Pistons vs. Pacers: 1H O/U 120.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Pacers: O/U 234.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Pacers: O/U 235.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Pacers: O/U 236.5Over won
- Spread: Pistons (-8.5)Pacers won
- Spread: Pistons (-9.5)Pacers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.