NBA · resolved market

Spread: Pistons (-8.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa09d8f88a7dfc75bafd3faa6905a08db23626ba94f5b82be359ea01b29f73854

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Pacersof Pistons, Pacers
Resolved: Nov 24, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $11,048
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $11,130

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,048 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Pacers	44c	1,997$878 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,118.81	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Pacers	44c	1,546$680 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$866	1,157	47.9%554 W · 603 L	-19.9wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Pacers	49c	641.46$314 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$327.15	5,053	50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L	+110.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Pistons	56c	565.72$316 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$316.08	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x52b4…34a8backed Pacers	44c	555$244 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$310.8	483	47.2%228 W · 255 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa198…9601backed Pistons	55c	549.73$305 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$305	163	46.6%76 W · 87 L	-3.8wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Pacers	43c	541.03$234 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$307.25	2,512	49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L	+6.9wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd9dd…b525backed Pistons	51c	500$255 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$255	443	37.9%168 W · 275 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	38cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Pistons	56c	471.87$266 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$266.22	2,361	48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L	-41.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x00ce…3f01backed Pistons	51c	417$213 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$212.67	321	51.7%166 W · 155 L	+3.5wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Pacers	43c	391.61$167 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$224.79	2,265	43.4%982 W · 1,283 L	-26.7wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Pacers	45c	371$167 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$204.05	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa763…709ebacked Pistons	56c	370$207 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$207.2	198	45.5%90 W · 108 L	-4.8wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c35…e403backed Pistons	59c	294.73$174 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$173.89	13	38.5%5 W · 8 L	-2.3wins	-0.17per pick	56cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe203…1b53backed Pacers	44c	230$101 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$128.8	274	35.4%97 W · 177 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	36cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a83…09f0backed Pistons	57c	200$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114	36	44.4%16 W · 20 L	-1.7wins	-0.05per pick	49cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Pistons	57c	199$113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$113.36	2,091	47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L	-56.6wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Pacers	45c	184$83 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$101.36	1,109	41.8%464 W · 645 L	-20.3wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x59b6…307fbacked Pistons	57c	175.63$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	271	52%141 W · 130 L	-17.9wins	-0.07per pick	59cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe098…8ee2backed Pistons	57c	175.44$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	207	54.1%112 W · 95 L	+3.8wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f1d…3de0backed Pistons	59c	170.64$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	-1.1wins	-0.09per pick	55cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e79…ff8bbacked Pistons	59c	169.49$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	174	56.9%99 W · 75 L	+10.3wins	+0.06per pick	51cpaid	+8.8%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Pistons	57c	151$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.07	3,591	50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L	+21.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa7f2…9b10backed Pistons	59c	127.12$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	79	53.2%42 W · 37 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	55cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Pacers	44c	126$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$70.56	1,475	51.3%756 W · 719 L	+35.2wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1fa9…259ebacked Pistons	57c	121.86$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.46	78	56.4%44 W · 34 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	56cpaid	-4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe50b…c2a8backed Pacers	44c	111$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$62.16	658	55.6%366 W · 292 L	+27.0wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+11.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x08b5…5a6ebacked Pacers	46c	110.87$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$59.87	120	48.3%58 W · 62 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8044…358ebacked Pistons	58c	110$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.8	549	51.9%285 W · 264 L	-2.3wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc54f…dce8backed Pacers	23c	110$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$85.2	634	27.3%173 W · 461 L	-19.7wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa8f5…1caabacked Pacers	43c	107.44$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$61.31	801	48.3%387 W · 414 L	-3.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2e17…e4d4backed Pistons	57c	105.23$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.98	160	61.3%98 W · 62 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	62cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0257…22b2backed Pistons	58c	103.45$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	710	44.6%317 W · 393 L	-6.7wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd07…cb4ebacked Pistons	56c	100$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56	201	43.3%87 W · 114 L	-12.4wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-13.9%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2de8…1121backed Pistons	59c	100$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59	909	57.6%524 W · 385 L	-1.9wins	0.00per pick	58cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x73da…8c9bbacked Pistons	57c	90$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.3	39	38.5%15 W · 24 L	-5.2wins	-0.13per pick	52cpaid	-29.7%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa710…f1ccbacked Pistons	56c	89.29$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	81	46.9%38 W · 43 L	-3.9wins	-0.05per pick	52cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Pacers	43c	87.72$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50	2,796	50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L	+27.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7180…bdbabacked Pistons	57c	87.72$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	156	57.7%90 W · 66 L	+8.4wins	+0.05per pick	52cpaid	+11.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3576…8117backed Pistons	57c	87.72$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	204	44.6%91 W · 113 L	-9.8wins	-0.05per pick	49cpaid	-13.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x87d5…9790backed Pistons	57c	87.72$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	133	58.6%78 W · 55 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	60cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1aba…0831backed Pistons	58c	86.71$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	185	58.4%108 W · 77 L	+2.3wins	+0.01per pick	57cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x48f8…9166backed Pistons	59c	84.75$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	171	45.6%78 W · 93 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Pacers	42c	84.22$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.85	1,139	48.3%550 W · 589 L	+3.5wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7e07…c0d4backed Pistons	58c	84.22$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.85	134	56.7%76 W · 58 L	-2.9wins	-0.02per pick	59cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Pistons	56c	82$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.92	2,208	46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L	+42.7wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Pacers	43c	81.4$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.4	950	49.4%469 W · 481 L	+10.8wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x084c…a811backed Pistons	59c	76.02$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.76	50	54%27 W · 23 L	-2.2wins	-0.04per pick	58cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb966…cac6backed Pistons	56c	71.43$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	253	51%129 W · 124 L	-6.5wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf921…94dbbacked Pistons	57c	70.18$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	67	49.3%33 W · 34 L	-6.7wins	-0.10per pick	59cpaid	-18.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc39c…416dbacked Pistons	58c	68.97$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	43	53.5%23 W · 20 L	-3.1wins	-0.07per pick	61cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Pistons	72c	60$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.2	2,169	40.8%885 W · 1,284 L	-8.7wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x58c9…8174backed Pistons	57c	52.63$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	98	51%50 W · 48 L	-2.7wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeab2…5735backed Pistons	57c	52.63$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	87	41.4%36 W · 51 L	-8.4wins	-0.10per pick	51cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe49a…f498backed Pistons	57c	52.63$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	57	43.9%25 W · 32 L	-6.0wins	-0.11per pick	54cpaid	-20.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd22f…d0eebacked Pistons	56c	50$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	408	53.7%219 W · 189 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc287…8487backed Pistons	57c	49.93$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.46	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.7wins	-0.34per pick	54cpaid	-61.5%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xdc5b…f102backed Pistons	59c	47.46$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	905	60.8%550 W · 355 L	-2.1wins	0.00per pick	61cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7972…930fbacked Pistons	57c	43.71$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	82	47.6%39 W · 43 L	-12.3wins	-0.15per pick	63cpaid	-24.4%equal weight	37-0.11 edge/pick
0x9fbd…3d15backed Pacers	43c	41.28$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.53	762	47.1%359 W · 403 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xeabf…97e5backed Pistons	57c	40$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	144	52.1%75 W · 69 L	-4.3wins	-0.03per pick	55cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x061e…81e0backed Pistons	55c	37$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.35	198	49%97 W · 101 L	-3.5wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3cba…3e55backed Pistons	57c	36$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.52	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	-2.0wins	-0.18per pick	45cpaid	-48.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6c41…18edbacked Pistons	57c	35.09$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	25	60%15 W · 10 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	58cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c16…f769backed Pistons	57c	35.09$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	18	66.7%12 W · 6 L	+2.0wins	+0.11per pick	55cpaid	+20.1%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x20ec…fa43backed Pistons	58c	34.48$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	610	56.1%342 W · 268 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	57cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x05f1…1744backed Pistons	58c	34.48$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	39	46.2%18 W · 21 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-12%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Pacers	44c	29.75$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.66	3,120	44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L	-7.6wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Pistons	58c	27$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.66	149	53%79 W · 70 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc5cb…9c55backed Pistons	57c	26.32$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	77	46.8%36 W · 41 L	-2.9wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4131…d591backed Pistons	57c	24.56$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	146	50.7%74 W · 72 L	-4.1wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: Pistons (-8.5)this page
1H Spread: Pistons (-5.5)Pistons won
Pistons vs. PacersPistons won
Pistons vs. Pacers: 1H O/U 120.5Over won
Pistons vs. Pacers: O/U 234.5Over won
Pistons vs. Pacers: O/U 235.5Over won
Pistons vs. Pacers: O/U 236.5Over won
Spread: Pistons (-10.5)Pacers won
Spread: Pistons (-9.5)Pacers won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Pistons (-8.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event