Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1e53cd4a454fa1bea72b5ddc373c23c75fe1143cebaa34519465a484758500e9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,320
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,240
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,320 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 2c | 2,370$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.44 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf0…ff09backed Yes | 13c | 1,131$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.57 | 187 | 31%58 W · 129 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9a3…8e60backed Yes | 44c | 918.09$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.31 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf255…a6e8backed No | 68c | 732.32$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.94 | 82 | 69.5%57 W · 25 L | +8.7wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 79c | 586.87$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.33 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 21c | 404.71$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.78 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 12c | 332.02$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.34 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 28c | 317.28$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.33 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 20c | 299.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf05…3d5bbacked Yes | 37c | 299.99$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.99 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 8c | 279.17$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.79 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 9c | 231.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 60c | 219$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.1 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 75c | 210.1$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.68 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92e3…ab49backed No | 53c | 205.06$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.92 | 71 | 38%27 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 8c | 199.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.73 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 8c | 190$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 31c | 181.31$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.42 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 18c | 180.85$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.42 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x296e…0b9abacked Yes | 38c | 173.7$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.43 | 57 | 22.8%13 W · 44 L | -7.1wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 59c | 170.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.8 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 13c | 168.01$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.98 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed Yes | 32c | 156.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 14c | 152.44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.21 | 1,275 | 34%433 W · 842 L | +46.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 76c | 150$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.14 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 57c | 148.41$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.11 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5750…955abacked Yes | 7c | 147.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked Yes | 9c | 141$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 230 | 60.9%140 W · 90 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 20c | 135.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.03 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d2…9145backed Yes | 15c | 133.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 85 | 9.4%8 W · 77 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 39c | 124.14$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.88 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed Yes | 21c | 119.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.12 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe67c…3de5backed Yes | 20c | 115.39$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.07 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0618…74cebacked Yes | 40c | 112.5$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 38c | 112.02$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.21 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 61c | 110.01$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2052…120bbacked Yes | 40c | 109.84$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.4 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe39c…4c0bbacked Yes | 14c | 102.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccc…61dfbacked Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 142 | 33.1%47 W · 95 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9777…3761backed Yes | 20c | 95.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabcd…6771backed Yes | 16c | 94.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 74 | 25.7%19 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 76c | 76$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d2e…4bb4backed Yes | 51c | 68.07$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.81 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 66cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 34c | 64.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.21 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2b…0dd7backed Yes | 39c | 64.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 68c | 61.94$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.84 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef11…a7a1backed Yes | 39c | 61.19$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.86 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8859…89d6backed Yes | 43c | 55.9$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.93 | 95 | 41.1%39 W · 56 L | -9.2wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 65c | 53.41$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…4357backed Yes | 20c | 53.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 208 | 32.7%68 W · 140 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked Yes | 39c | 52.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xacc6…a78bbacked Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 39cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbb…9b60backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 159 | 15.7%25 W · 134 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…7082backed Yes | 37c | 44.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 99 | 35.4%35 W · 64 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 58c | 43.34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.16 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 68c | 41.97$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.36 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 61c | 40.27$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96ee…0662backed Yes | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 75 | 30.7%23 W · 52 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 40c | 38.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed No | 59c | 36.97$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.16 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked Yes | 45c | 35.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x308f…8607backed No | 71c | 35.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -4.7wins | -0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…7fbebacked Yes | 33c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 125 | 35.2%44 W · 81 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked Yes | 41c | 34.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 297 | 69.4%206 W · 91 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 55c | 32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x741a…c6cabacked No | 64c | 31.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.06 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d3…118ebacked Yes | 38c | 31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 208 | 42.8%89 W · 119 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…4163backed No | 61c | 28.84$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 136 | 72.1%98 W · 38 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9529…b001backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 60c | 24.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.93 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a1b…1c78backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 174 | 60.3%105 W · 69 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4da…cf3bbacked No | 71c | 14.39$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.17 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on July 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on July 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.