Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeecf94c283a3df66a6b0590e10fe8ea31502bf76b8c1205a36dbee9fe3957135
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,806
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,202
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,806 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 106 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 2c | 2,819$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.09 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf0…ff09backed Yes | 39c | 751.81$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.96 | 187 | 31%58 W · 129 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 72c | 740.44$534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.6 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef11…a7a1backed Yes | 30c | 635.16$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.24 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 29c | 435.17$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.61 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 53c | 417.04$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.69 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 51c | 409.11$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.56 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 17c | 399.94$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.5 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe191…2720backed Yes | 48c | 386.42$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.81 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 70c | 374.51$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.31 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 13c | 345.62$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.57 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…dd8ebacked No | 63c | 309.82$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.26 | 163 | 48.5%79 W · 84 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 64c | 300$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 72c | 271.1$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.46 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2c…ecdcbacked Yes | 12c | 255$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.9 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 26c | 252.4$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.74 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 68c | 239.34$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.88 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 5c | 221.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56c2…a110backed Yes | 48c | 199.61$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.92 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 22c | 193$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.04 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc61…5620backed Yes | 9c | 189.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes | 48c | 181.84$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.91 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5323…326abacked Yes | 45c | 177.78$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 32c | 170.76$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.87 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 30c | 163.1$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.27 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0bb…ec4fbacked Yes | 44c | 146.9$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.64 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 28c | 141.31$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.21 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9183…c349backed No | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 77cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 66c | 133.21$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.79 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 69c | 129$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.99 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 62c | 116.96$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.47 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8494…f290backed Yes | 29c | 112.3$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.76 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2052…120bbacked Yes | 35c | 109.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 54c | 109.35$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.8 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1de3…c880backed No | 78c | 109.27$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.53 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1171…b88ebacked Yes | 20c | 102.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.22 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c7c…2d79backed Yes | 21c | 100.08$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 64 | 25%16 W · 48 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccc…61dfbacked Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 142 | 33.1%47 W · 95 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9052…653dbacked Yes | 38c | 99.21$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.53 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf05…3d5bbacked Yes | 32c | 98.02$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.37 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 41c | 97.65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 63c | 96.02$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.53 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 55c | 94.32$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.32 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked No | 57c | 93.02$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.59 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf01d…bb31backed No | 58c | 90.29$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.14 | 162 | 72.2%117 W · 45 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacc6…a78bbacked Yes | 29c | 89.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.39 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 39cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 76c | 66.77$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 70c | 66.57$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.97 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 58c | 65$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 28c | 64.69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked Yes | 19c | 64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 230 | 60.9%140 W · 90 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac71…f74cbacked Yes | 16c | 62.92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 89 | 62.9%56 W · 33 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 69c | 61.93$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes | 33c | 61.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.29 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 31c | 59.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 69c | 59.25$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.37 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1960…b11abacked Yes | 30c | 55.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 23c | 53.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d39…e6f6backed No | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | +6.0wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc512…7fdfbacked No | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d3c…4929backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.4wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebe…a64dbacked Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 103 | 25.2%26 W · 77 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x989e…aa30backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…3e99backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d3…5b5ebacked No | 76c | 49.98$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.99 | 121 | 57%69 W · 52 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 27c | 48.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 74c | 46.75$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.01 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 39c | 46.22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 61c | 45.65$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.87 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb9…191abacked No | 51c | 45.15$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.91 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa97f…c88fbacked Yes | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 27c | 41.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 66c | 41.97$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bc…c1b8backed Yes | 28c | 41.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 60 | 61.7%37 W · 23 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 79c | 40.27$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 61c | 40.1$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.65 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 43c | 39.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc427…efdfbacked Yes | 53c | 39.31$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 76c | 37.19$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.08 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 64c | 35.29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb2…d8d4backed Yes | 29c | 35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 59c | 34.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed No | 57c | 34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 69c | 33.61$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6906…f45ebacked No | 79c | 32.63$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.81 | 27 | 74.1%20 W · 7 L | +3.7wins | +0.14per pick | 60cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 62c | 32.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.08 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 61c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8c…f777backed No | 55c | 30.83$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.83 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 61c | 30.61$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.87 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b41…b5cebacked Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.7wins | -0.27per pick | 55cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5c…04a9backed Yes | 36c | 29.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 85 | 38.8%33 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 58c | 25.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.51 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 59c | 24.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 59c | 24.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x572b…77e1backed No | 46c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bdd…aaa8backed Yes | 44c | 23.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2975…56e0backed No | 57c | 23.06$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on July 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on July 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.