Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7898fe4cd41eebfad34befff1fa30b26d5ca9232bc07bcd1a8b2900b0490e2de
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,471
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,840
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,471 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 95 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8494…f290backed Yes | 1c | 3,434$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf0…ff09backed Yes | 15c | 1,182$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.58 | 187 | 31%58 W · 129 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 1c | 1,057$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,025$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 74c | 839.44$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.84 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 43c | 810.87$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.32 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 7c | 686.21$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.52 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked No | 69c | 676.33$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.59 | 230 | 60.9%140 W · 90 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 9c | 565.78$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.62 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 30c | 554.07$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.94 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 13c | 492.2$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.83 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 4c | 471.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc86b…6e26backed Yes | 63c | 451.2$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.33 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 2c | 442.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 20c | 439.66$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.41 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 8c | 430.61$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.52 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c7c…2d79backed Yes | 22c | 417.85$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 64 | 25%16 W · 48 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 59c | 327.86$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.78 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccc…61dfbacked Yes | 45c | 308$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.9 | 142 | 33.1%47 W · 95 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 66c | 306$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.73 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 43c | 282.78$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.11 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 76c | 271.1$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.58 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06a3…fa45backed Yes | 75c | 266.88$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 156 | 60.9%95 W · 61 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 5c | 260$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 10c | 244.46$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.59 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31af…5c86backed Yes | 10c | 202.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 318 | 36.8%117 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56c2…a110backed Yes | 26c | 200.15$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.54 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 22c | 183.53$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 62c | 180.68$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.74 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 41c | 165$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.59 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes | 40c | 149.83$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.56 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 70c | 140$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 38c | 133.6$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.07 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 22c | 120.01$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 17c | 115.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9d…558bbacked No | 66c | 111$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.52 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.8 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1db5…d13cbacked Yes | 71c | 98.82$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 50c | 96$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.7 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 52c | 92.19$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.14 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 34c | 90.97$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.59 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea72…298abacked No | 35c | 90.21$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.62 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1b…2fffbacked Yes | 30c | 90.14$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 63c | 89.95$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.32 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc90b…7190backed No | 62c | 88.91$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.42 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f0c…a3b4backed No | 69c | 87.16$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 62c | 80.89$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.96 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 66c | 75.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.62 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 33c | 71.48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 53c | 71.45$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.88 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 62c | 70$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.37 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 63c | 65$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.18 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 37c | 62.49$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.33 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1de3…c880backed Yes | 65c | 59.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.21 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 75c | 58.9$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 78c | 56.81$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.44 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 34c | 53.48$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.19 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 48c | 53.11$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.51 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8862…54dfbacked Yes | 38c | 52.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -3.3wins | -0.28per pick | 36cpaid | -79%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 56c | 51.76$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.83 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 52c | 51.02$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.31 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4c2…a11abacked No | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e28…e629backed Yes | 23c | 47.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked Yes | 35c | 44.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed No | 76c | 43.98$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.69 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 77c | 42.94$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.78 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 65c | 41.53$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacc6…a78bbacked Yes | 49c | 40.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 39cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 63c | 33.7$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.61 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed No | 58c | 33.17$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.94 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 61c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 57c | 32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 55c | 31.37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.18 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5c…04a9backed Yes | 60c | 30.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 85 | 38.8%33 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x142a…a44abacked No | 40c | 29.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 179 | 45.3%81 W · 98 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bdd…aaa8backed Yes | 37c | 29.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 65c | 29.72$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.52 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83aa…35bbbacked No | 73c | 26.25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 65 | 58.5%38 W · 27 L | -6.5wins | -0.10per pick | 68cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 58c | 26.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.03 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.73 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb67…322fbacked No | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.64 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed Yes | 46c | 24.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1298…e850backed Yes | 48c | 24.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -6.0wins | -0.21per pick | 42cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 62c | 23.03$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef28…d776backed Yes | 73c | 22.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 60c | 21.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.48 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 76c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e70…bb75backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +19%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce0…a730backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.49 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x315f…acb7backed No | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 68 | 69.1%47 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on July 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on July 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.