TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

New York Mets vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 10.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$10,789
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$10,795

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,789 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc3c3…eec8backed Under51c7,500$3,825 inLost-$3,824.9948952.8%258 W · 231 L+16.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Over49c5,692$2,789 inWon+$2,902.924,03557.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L+72.2wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x05c5…6a69backed Over50c1,687$838 inWon+$849.2847358.4%276 W · 197 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x31ed…552ebacked Under51c1,489$752 inLost-$752.252937.9%11 W · 18 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick42cpaid+3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Under47c1,096$514 inLost-$514.144,27947.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L-83.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x17d7…9e1ebacked Over53c660.06$350 inWon+$310.231,00058.8%588 W · 412 L+26.0wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x22a4…63ebbacked Over49c408.16$200 inWon+$208.161,20558.8%708 W · 497 L+31.1wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3d1…de26backed Over53c320.75$170 inWon+$150.7511060.9%67 W · 43 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Over49c300$147 inWon+$1535,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x92f3…b21cbacked Over62c251.65$156 inWon+$95.634751.1%24 W · 23 L-5.9wins-0.13per pick64cpaid-20.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4c8e…b38fbacked Over49c204.08$100 inWon+$104.0840658.4%237 W · 169 L+2.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid-0.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x29de…d9e6backed Over49c204.08$100 inWon+$104.0855259.6%329 W · 223 L+11.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Over76c176.96$134 inWon+$42.918,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Over48c139.53$67 inWon+$72.4210,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ab7…6978backed Under47c99.99$47 inLost-$4714643.2%63 W · 83 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x133a…504abacked Over49c91.84$45 inWon+$46.8454651.3%280 W · 266 L+29.8wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+12.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3cad…92f0backed Over53c84.91$45 inWon+$39.9147549.7%236 W · 239 L+17.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe577…6d01backed Under50c80$40 inLost-$401560%9 W · 6 L+1.4wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+24.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Under36c44$16 inLost-$15.841,79643.8%786 W · 1,010 L-33.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e50…c665backed Over54c39.71$21 inWon+$18.4156435.1%198 W · 366 L-21.3wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-13.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x41c8…424fbacked Over53c31$16 inWon+$14.5720362.6%127 W · 76 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.