MLB · resolved market
New York Mets vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x877abc11f941015756adbb68bdfb8c2aca2fd06b40ae57328cbc0db63d13943b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,748
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,835
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,748 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 58c | 27,963$16,219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,744.7 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 42c | 20,672$8,682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,682.49 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf1…b5afbacked Under | 42c | 3,748$1,574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,573.99 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 39c | 3,697$1,447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,446.93 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 59c | 2,974$1,752 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,222.41 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Over | 57c | 2,291$1,306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$985.13 | 1,414 | 49.5%700 W · 714 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Under | 43c | 1,600$688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$688 | 878 | 50.5%443 W · 435 L | +12.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Under | 42c | 1,600$672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$672 | 647 | 52.4%339 W · 308 L | +28.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Under | 43c | 1,200$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516 | 570 | 53.3%304 W · 266 L | +14.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 71c | 1,064$751 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.88 | 3,041 | 48%1,461 W · 1,580 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 58c | 988.07$575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.79 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 58c | 847.39$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.9 | 1,797 | 50.4%906 W · 891 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Under | 43c | 580$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.4 | 736 | 50.7%373 W · 363 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 31c | 523.45$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.27 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c8e…a316backed Under | 42c | 500$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 226 | 38.5%87 W · 139 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 42c | 494.02$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.49 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 42c | 391.5$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.43 | 1,848 | 49.6%917 W · 931 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Under | 42c | 390$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.8 | 1,635 | 49.3%806 W · 829 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Over | 57c | 378.15$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.6 | 460 | 48.5%223 W · 237 L | -12.1wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7aefbacked Under | 43c | 290$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.7 | 399 | 53.6%214 W · 185 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed Under | 43c | 290$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.7 | 390 | 51.5%201 W · 189 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 42c | 233$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.98 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 55c | 204$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.8 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf095…58c6backed Under | 43c | 185.12$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.6 | 103 | 51.5%53 W · 50 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Under | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 448 | 45.8%205 W · 243 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Under | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 475 | 52%247 W · 228 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…624fbacked Over | 59c | 99$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.32 | 229 | 49.8%114 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Over | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 1,212 | 50%606 W · 606 L | +5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Over | 59c | 83$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.06 | 886 | 56.4%500 W · 386 L | +30.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 60c | 65.48$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.87 | 1,219 | 53.9%657 W · 562 L | +32.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Over | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 838 | 54.7%458 W · 380 L | +29.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6b…8a98backed Under | 43c | 47.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 477 | 52.8%252 W · 225 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Under | 26c | 44.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 143 | 36.4%52 W · 91 L | -9.9wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 57c | 43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 1,386 | 50.6%702 W · 684 L | -23.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…db3abacked Under | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 741 | 43.5%322 W · 419 L | -14.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 48c | 37.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09da…50bcbacked Under | 43c | 37.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 313 | 54.6%171 W · 142 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6a…56bdbacked Over | 58c | 33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.87 | 133 | 45.9%61 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe90f…a908backed Over | 59c | 23.34$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 99 | 55.6%55 W · 44 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Mets vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5this page
- New York Mets vs. Cleveland GuardiansNew York Mets won
- New York Mets vs. Cleveland Guardians: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Cleveland Guardians: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 10.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 11.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 14.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 15.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 19.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-3.5)New York Mets won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Cleveland GuardiansYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.