MLB · resolved market
New York Mets vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa08a886521582de7995f4139c43da1f7266747634656d7349ebd9dad4c5c06aa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,806
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,876
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,806 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 64c | 21,914$14,004 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,003.68 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Over | 36c | 21,503$7,741 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,761.82 | 436 | 47%205 W · 231 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31ed…552ebacked Under | 39c | 2,749$1,063 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,063.33 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 26c | 1,175$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.04 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 61c | 1,013$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615.11 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 39c | 928.3$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$566.26 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeba0…4586backed Over | 63c | 900$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330 | 96 | 36.5%35 W · 61 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Over | 32c | 670.96$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.98 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 41c | 256.05$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.07 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 40c | 213$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.4 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 38c | 171.92$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.38 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 40c | 139.11$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.53 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…ff44backed Over | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 264 | 44.3%117 W · 147 L | -7.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6a…56bdbacked Over | 40c | 98$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.74 | 133 | 45.9%61 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…624fbacked Over | 77c | 96$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.08 | 229 | 49.8%114 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Under | 17c | 82.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 143 | 36.4%52 W · 91 L | -9.9wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Over | 67c | 80.32$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.11 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Under | 44c | 70.45$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 473 | 45.7%216 W · 257 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Over | 42c | 67.62$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.22 | 564 | 35.1%198 W · 366 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 56c | 65.45$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65a4…1963backed Under | 64c | 62.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 59c | 48$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.32 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x833c…ac24backed Under | 58c | 43.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 95 | 49.5%47 W · 48 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc730…c568backed Over | 39c | 31.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.45 | 357 | 47.6%170 W · 187 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 63c | 27.03$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x453d…2dbabacked Under | 58c | 25.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 42c | 24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 73c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Mets vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5this page
- New York Mets vs. Cleveland GuardiansNew York Mets won
- New York Mets vs. Cleveland Guardians: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Cleveland Guardians: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 10.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 11.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 14.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 15.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 19.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-3.5)New York Mets won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Cleveland GuardiansYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.