MLB · resolved market
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe94cde44c14b59aaea482143dbe43be356b091f7d936700da09830dded6b27d1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- New York Metsof Cleveland Guardians, New York Mets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,944
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,255
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,944 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Cleveland Guardians | 4c | 2,082$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.28 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed New York Mets | 64c | 1,916$1,227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$689.23 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cleveland Guardians | 26c | 1,882$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.33 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa084…bb99backed Cleveland Guardians | 37c | 1,744$645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$645.44 | 107 | 48.6%52 W · 55 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Cleveland Guardians | 34c | 1,532$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.68 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed New York Mets | 74c | 1,000$740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked New York Mets | 66c | 854.06$565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.63 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed New York Mets | 66c | 737.99$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.53 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Cleveland Guardians | 34c | 642$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.28 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed New York Mets | 66c | 400$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked New York Mets | 66c | 322.7$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.72 | 452 | 52.4%237 W · 215 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed New York Mets | 71c | 307.38$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.55 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb98b…7e18backed Cleveland Guardians | 16c | 300$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.98 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked New York Mets | 77c | 300$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed New York Mets | 66c | 177.71$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.42 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Cleveland Guardians | 33c | 175.06$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.77 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed New York Mets | 74c | 156.68$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.74 | 318 | 44%140 W · 178 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked New York Mets | 74c | 152$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.22 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Cleveland Guardians | 19c | 132.7$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.73 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4cf…0e95backed Cleveland Guardians | 34c | 110$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 139 | 46.8%65 W · 74 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Cleveland Guardians | 34c | 95.64$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.52 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Cleveland Guardians | 19c | 93.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 487 | 51.5%251 W · 236 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Cleveland Guardians | 25c | 90.9$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Cleveland Guardians | 19c | 88.45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 424 | 51.9%220 W · 204 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Cleveland Guardians | 26c | 83.3$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.44 | 470 | 56.6%266 W · 204 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed New York Mets | 71c | 75.24$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.52 | 143 | 36.4%52 W · 91 L | -9.9wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Cleveland Guardians | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 569 | 46.9%267 W · 302 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked New York Mets | 66c | 32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed19…b6ffbacked New York Mets | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +9.4wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +67.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0617…08d9backed Cleveland Guardians | 48c | 24.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -23%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc020…5edbbacked New York Mets | 67c | 23.88$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 229 | 54.6%125 W · 104 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked New York Mets | 67c | 18.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 266 | 42.1%112 W · 154 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a7…c3debacked New York Mets | 65c | 18.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +104%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed New York Mets | 66c | 17.77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.04 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed New York Mets | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)this page
- New York Mets vs. Cleveland GuardiansNew York Mets won
- New York Mets vs. Cleveland Guardians: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Cleveland Guardians: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 10.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 11.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 14.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 15.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 19.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-3.5)New York Mets won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Cleveland GuardiansYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.