MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Cleveland Guardians
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2faf14879f14c4b46b8fd518bfc2b507210aac7d28c10ba69d8dc22477f19d93
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,503
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,077
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,503 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfdfc…bf06backed No | 64c | 9,471$6,024 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,024.3 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…8ed9backed Yes | 36c | 6,304$2,270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,034.78 | 326 | 52.5%171 W · 155 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Yes | 40c | 4,719$1,870 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,849.77 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c56…68b2backed No | 62c | 3,207$1,976 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,976.33 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd25…a624backed No | 64c | 3,079$1,971 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,970.78 | 70 | 60%42 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 37c | 2,144$789 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,354.8 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Yes | 37c | 1,909$707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,202.97 | 776 | 47.4%368 W · 408 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Yes | 38c | 1,478$562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$916.36 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 38c | 1,191$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$735.1 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36e6…ad16backed No | 61c | 1,148$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 75 | 64%48 W · 27 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Yes | 39c | 1,091$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$669.53 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c8e…a316backed Yes | 38c | 1,000$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620 | 226 | 38.5%87 W · 139 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 38c | 864.62$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539.27 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9621…0a73backed No | 59c | 525.42$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 186 | 58.6%109 W · 77 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Yes | 36c | 390$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.6 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Yes | 38c | 349.39$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.62 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd52…aa25backed No | 59c | 317.8$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.5 | 281 | 52%146 W · 135 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Yes | 36c | 300$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87f0…361dbacked No | 59c | 250$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.5 | 95 | 54.7%52 W · 43 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb15c…604abacked No | 61c | 245.9$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1636…977bbacked No | 57c | 245.52$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a49…651abacked No | 59c | 210$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.9 | 230 | 52.6%121 W · 109 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Yes | 37c | 200$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4cf…0e95backed No | 59c | 200$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 139 | 46.8%65 W · 74 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07aa…63bfbacked No | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 193 | 58%112 W · 81 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce00…7d1dbacked No | 61c | 160.93$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.17 | 179 | 52.5%94 W · 85 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed No | 59c | 130$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.7 | 423 | 55.6%235 W · 188 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa845…6b8fbacked No | 60c | 125$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bec…8d52backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc730…c568backed Yes | 42c | 99.92$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.55 | 357 | 47.6%170 W · 187 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b25…edc5backed No | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | -7.3wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe922…39b3backed No | 60c | 80.81$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.37 | 204 | 55.9%114 W · 90 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c8…1badbacked Yes | 40c | 75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 156 | 39.1%61 W · 95 L | -11.5wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x91bc…28d6backed No | 60c | 66.64$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 197 | 54.8%108 W · 89 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0477…631cbacked No | 59c | 63.56$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 171 | 55.6%95 W · 76 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed7…aae7backed No | 63c | 63.49$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -4.7wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed Yes | 41c | 63.42$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.18 | 223 | 52.5%117 W · 106 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2645…ccc3backed No | 60c | 62.5$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 35c | 54.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 143 | 36.4%52 W · 91 L | -9.9wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Yes | 52c | 54.09$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.96 | 374 | 44.4%166 W · 208 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2b…51debacked No | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 222 | 57.7%128 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x263c…6540backed Yes | 37c | 50.72$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.95 | 148 | 48.6%72 W · 76 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1607…2c65backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 219 | 54.8%120 W · 99 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Yes | 36c | 49$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.36 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ee…e425backed Yes | 39c | 43.59$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.59 | 219 | 44.7%98 W · 121 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f3d…95b1backed Yes | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 286 | 39.2%112 W · 174 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe84e…b520backed No | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -5.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x07ea…f3a4backed No | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c47…b30abacked No | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6987…846bbacked No | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x832f…be94backed No | 63c | 30.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32e2…af02backed No | 59c | 26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 138 | 50.7%70 W · 68 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeccc…f0f8backed No | 59c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b16…1290backed No | 59c | 23.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Cleveland Guardiansthis page
- New York Mets vs. Cleveland GuardiansNew York Mets won
- New York Mets vs. Cleveland Guardians: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Cleveland Guardians: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 10.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 11.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 14.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 15.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 19.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-3.5)New York Mets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.