TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on July 10?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$14,965
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$15,022

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,965 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc9de…81d9backed Yes41c1,253$513 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$739.3242036.4%153 W · 267 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+11.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes43c1,001$425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$575.411,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb0da…3ff6backed No54c746.48$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405.6417658%102 W · 74 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7a4…f148backed Yes45c681$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$376.391,42934.5%493 W · 936 L-6.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes45c541.76$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295.764,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked Yes44c470.27$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.352,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No58c307.25$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.358,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb31b…b140backed Yes44c300$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16855954.7%306 W · 253 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes54c252.74$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.4712,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x655c…1a00backed Yes44c250$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14036150.4%182 W · 179 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes48c241$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.681,19657.9%693 W · 503 L+47.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No35c221.45$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.824,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No57c220.18$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.654,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes48c176.98$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.2646743.7%204 W · 263 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xec62…9191backed Yes40c174.04$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.051,10240.7%448 W · 654 L+18.7wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No58c168.75$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.883,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No46c153$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.785,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd498…a6c5backed No57c151.76$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.051,71047.8%818 W · 892 L-48.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes64c141.77$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.766,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x75cc…6b15backed Yes49c139.79$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.291,18149.4%583 W · 598 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No28c133.64$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.874,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea5e…a678backed No49c133$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.321,21842%512 W · 706 L+31.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x599c…e29bbacked Yes42c121.35$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.382842.9%12 W · 16 L+3.1wins+0.11per pick32cpaid+36.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No53c113.87$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.469,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1b29…f288backed Yes44c112.4$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.410044%44 W · 56 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No34c112$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.324,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x116a…a2f2backed Yes45c111.11$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.113043.3%13 W · 17 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c1b…d915backed Yes47c110.77$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.4726344.9%118 W · 145 L+15.4wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+12%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes41c109.88$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.889,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No57c100.58$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.554,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes47c96.82$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.888,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c48…6b72backed Yes52c96.13$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.1345238.5%174 W · 278 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No57c92.91$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.962,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4673…b24abacked Yes45c88.26$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.542450%12 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-14.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x25e5…d09cbacked Yes45c81.08$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.593063.3%19 W · 11 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No53c80.97$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.24,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x355d…1052backed Yes45c80.84$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.461353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0739…aba8backed No59c76.27$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4537355%205 W · 168 L+20.5wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+12%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5c9e…3a21backed No59c76.27$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451,17454.9%644 W · 530 L+49.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed No60c76$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.686949.8%433 W · 436 L-24.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6424…2718backed No53c73.89$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.1642754.6%233 W · 194 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc3a…3df7backed Yes49c69.77$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.5845253.3%241 W · 211 L-1.7wins0.00per pick54cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcca3…7450backed Yes40c69.02$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.5242643.2%184 W · 242 L+9.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa79a…88d0backed No60c66.42$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.854841.7%20 W · 28 L-7.0wins-0.15per pick56cpaid-29.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes61c61.23$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.741,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x17f2…adcabacked No55c60.65$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.3611163.1%70 W · 41 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-9.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7956…eba5backed Yes44c60.57$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.931,04838.1%399 W · 649 L-3.8wins0.00per pick38cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec3d…0a55backed Yes42c59.3$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.314434%49 W · 95 L-0.1wins0.00per pick34cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e28…4983backed No57c52.63$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3033654.2%182 W · 154 L-9.6wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No57c51$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.983,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes45c50$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.570148.4%339 W · 362 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x48c0…53d5backed Yes45c50$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.57847.4%37 W · 41 L+0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39c9…b108backed No40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2034457%196 W · 148 L+8.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c84…3f63backed Yes41c48.89$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.8913839.1%54 W · 84 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcdbc…bd73backed No59c48.76$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.7791861.5%565 W · 353 L+1.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0982…24e3backed Yes41c45.88$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2735137.9%133 W · 218 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b8…6983backed No55c44.13$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.4587437.3%326 W · 548 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes46c43$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.2246148.8%225 W · 236 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcfe7…88e7backed No59c42.72$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.211850%9 W · 9 L-2.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-23.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xeb58…407abacked Yes45c41.31$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.762,42426.2%636 W · 1,788 L+18.0wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes45c40.27$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.9567336.1%243 W · 430 L-48.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3dd1…557ebacked Yes56c40$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.581,16959.4%694 W · 475 L+30.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x286d…825abacked Yes40c38.77$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.1362555.2%345 W · 280 L-12.1wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x914e…8355backed No58c38.53$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.4516859.5%100 W · 68 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes41c37.82$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.210,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x254a…dacbbacked Yes42c36.5$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.0316950.9%86 W · 83 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-15.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1bf7…40c0backed No50c36$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.0680050.1%401 W · 399 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6af…4219backed No57c35.09$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2050648.8%247 W · 259 L+25.1wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+6.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcdd4…05ebbacked Yes41c35$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.716354%88 W · 75 L-0.5wins0.00per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x655c…4420backed Yes42c34$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.7289557.2%512 W · 383 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x26cb…a394backed Yes44c33.88$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.9712437.1%46 W · 78 L-17.5wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-30.6%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x6120…f1febacked Yes45c33.32$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.3382742.8%354 W · 473 L+2.7wins0.00per pick42cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0515…f02bbacked No55c32.97$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.172142.9%9 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-27.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xea83…7393backed Yes45c30.21$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.621,44560.1%868 W · 577 L+5.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No61c30$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.35,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x04dc…d572backed No35c30$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4337465.2%244 W · 130 L+23.4wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+3.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No54c30$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.22,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe7db…959bbacked Yes46c28.47$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.471,01825.5%260 W · 758 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes59c27.17$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.062,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcee6…0a45backed No50c27$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.521370.9%151 W · 62 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick72cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc662…0927backed Yes44c25.22$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.121,19057.9%689 W · 501 L-5.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa33d…3ef2backed No60c25$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1545675.2%343 W · 113 L+27.6wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+13%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xefc6…dde3backed Yes67c25$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.253050%15 W · 15 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No57c24.27$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.913,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa750…5393backed Yes43c24$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.68450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes46c22$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.8833139.6%131 W · 200 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No52c21.53$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.253,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No56c21.12$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.745,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No57c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.43,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfaf3…782cbacked No63c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.51,87663%1,181 W · 695 L+0.3wins0.00per pick63cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x802d…d59abacked No53c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.61,29841.7%541 W · 757 L+53.2wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x170b…4737backed No52c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3580957.6%466 W · 343 L-19.4wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5927…ba9abacked No58c19.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4928762.4%179 W · 108 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed62…c51dbacked No54c19.5$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5534628.9%100 W · 246 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-22.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd3b…a8b9backed No53c18.87$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb077…74d3backed No54c18.69$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0966944.7%299 W · 370 L+3.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fba…006dbacked No61c18.01$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.993548.6%17 W · 18 L-3.1wins-0.09per pick57cpaid-21.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0f12…59ddbacked No61c17$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3794066.4%624 W · 316 L+3.4wins0.00per pick66cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.