NHL · resolved market

Spread: Oilers (-1.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1f7a1a6255c6d055fb7a040539e809958a0f695538a83b24bf16b61b2065b1ec

Rebuilt 8 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Flyersof Oilers, Flyers
Resolved: Jan 3, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $36,729
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $36,798

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,729 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NHL
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xe60a…6a47backed Oilers	39c	20,401$7,944 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,944.12	1,948	49.4%962 W · 986 L	+24.9wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Flyers	61c	11,647$7,105 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,542.27	881	51.2%451 W · 430 L	+10.4wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x06e6…87e6backed Oilers	39c	9,380$3,659 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,659.02	177	44.6%79 W · 98 L	-12.0wins	-0.07per pick	51cpaid	-13.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Flyers	61c	7,295$4,444 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,851.03	1,679	54.4%914 W · 765 L	+36.6wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e68…d99bbacked Flyers	61c	3,000$1,830 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,170	286	52.4%150 W · 136 L	+6.1wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Flyers	61c	2,817$1,718 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,098.7	388	44.6%173 W · 215 L	-17.1wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1b9e…0262backed Flyers	62c	2,455$1,522 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$932.9	21	38.1%8 W · 13 L	-3.2wins	-0.15per pick	54cpaid	-31.6%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked Oilers	38c	1,500$570 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$570	360	38.6%139 W · 221 L	-5.6wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1464…5e75backed Flyers	61c	1,275$779 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$496.5	68	55.9%38 W · 30 L	+2.2wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Flyers	62c	1,269$787 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$482.22	619	53.8%333 W · 286 L	+13.2wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd589…27c2backed Oilers	38c	1,000$380 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$380	428	47.2%202 W · 226 L	+5.8wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Flyers	62c	637$395 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$242.06	793	50.1%397 W · 396 L	-11.5wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1244…c851backed Flyers	61c	600$366 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$234	222	48.2%107 W · 115 L	-5.2wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd4da…3175backed Flyers	63c	535.88$338 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$198.33	282	51.8%146 W · 136 L	+8.9wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Oilers	38c	519.08$197 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$197.25	1,441	49.2%709 W · 732 L	+6.5wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7669…f58cbacked Flyers	64c	374$240 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$133.85	83	68.7%57 W · 26 L	+12.3wins	+0.15per pick	54cpaid	+30.7%equal weight	63+0.11 edge/pick
0x8861…e19fbacked Oilers	42c	334.31$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	177	53.1%94 W · 83 L	+6.7wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4a59…eb2ebacked Flyers	61c	240$146 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$93.6	376	49.7%187 W · 189 L	-3.0wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8a0…35b6backed Flyers	63c	218.81$137 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$81.33	60	58.3%35 W · 25 L	+3.6wins	+0.06per pick	52cpaid	+10.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6afd…5cb1backed Oilers	37c	150$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.5	99	51.5%51 W · 48 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Flyers	62c	127.17$79 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.48	1,530	51.7%791 W · 739 L	+22.5wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa800…cc71backed Oilers	38c	124$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.12	194	42.8%83 W · 111 L	-12.3wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5179…2b29backed Oilers	35c	120$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	481	49.3%237 W · 244 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Flyers	61c	120$73 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.8	792	51.1%405 W · 387 L	+21.7wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Flyers	61c	120$73 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.8	472	49.2%232 W · 240 L	+3.4wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed Oilers	39c	119.97$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.39	490	45.3%222 W · 268 L	-1.2wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Flyers	61c	100.01$61 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.5	1,143	50.8%581 W · 562 L	+11.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90c5…534cbacked Oilers	37c	99.99$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.99	541	32.7%177 W · 364 L	-11.5wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf2d9…0092backed Flyers	63c	81.84$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.28	164	63.4%104 W · 60 L	+18.5wins	+0.11per pick	52cpaid	+23.3%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x79c3…81e3backed Flyers	62c	81.13$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.13	68	45.6%31 W · 37 L	-5.3wins	-0.08per pick	53cpaid	-16.4%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x41ed…1da9backed Flyers	61c	75$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.25	295	50.2%148 W · 147 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9d28…7a6dbacked Flyers	61c	73.22$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.61	352	48%169 W · 183 L	+4.7wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb973…ff16backed Flyers	63c	73$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.01	107	46.7%50 W · 57 L	-5.9wins	-0.05per pick	52cpaid	-10%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9fbd…3d15backed Oilers	38c	72.4$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.51	244	42.6%104 W · 140 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd079…8db3backed Oilers	35c	72$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.2	263	48.7%128 W · 135 L	-3.9wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d58…2073backed Oilers	35c	72$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.2	271	48.7%132 W · 139 L	-4.2wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Oilers	38c	60.03$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.81	2,754	47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L	+11.9wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe9f5…3e7abacked Flyers	62c	56$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.28	66	56.1%37 W · 29 L	+2.6wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+6.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa60b…c728backed Flyers	61c	54$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.06	264	48.9%129 W · 135 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2025…db59backed Flyers	61c	54$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.06	196	47.4%93 W · 103 L	-5.0wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc383…a540backed Flyers	61c	54$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.06	190	46.8%89 W · 101 L	-6.1wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Flyers	60c	50.22$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.09	2,894	51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L	+58.0wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Flyers	61c	50$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.5	665	52%346 W · 319 L	+8.8wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf79e…9a84backed Oilers	37c	45$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.56	105	43.8%46 W · 59 L	-6.5wins	-0.06per pick	50cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3f1f…f56bbacked Oilers	37c	42.85$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.96	204	47.5%97 W · 107 L	-4.5wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x10d4…d953backed Flyers	62c	42$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.96	445	51.2%228 W · 217 L	+16.4wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+9.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa8f5…1caabacked Flyers	59c	41$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.81	479	44.7%214 W · 265 L	-25.8wins	-0.05per pick	50cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xad15…ee7fbacked Oilers	41c	40.22$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.49	69	46.4%32 W · 37 L	-2.3wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2692…2698backed Oilers	38c	39$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.82	200	45.5%91 W · 109 L	-7.8wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4109…7e24backed Flyers	61c	36$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.04	231	44.6%103 W · 128 L	-5.9wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7398…f4b6backed Oilers	38c	36$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.68	196	45.4%89 W · 107 L	-8.0wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x864c…735fbacked Oilers	38c	36$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.68	112	47.3%53 W · 59 L	-3.7wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Flyers	61c	36$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.04	291	47.4%138 W · 153 L	-7.3wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0fad…aa0fbacked Flyers	61c	36$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.04	130	46.2%60 W · 70 L	-7.0wins	-0.05per pick	52cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa48d…b023backed Oilers	37c	36$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.32	198	48.5%96 W · 102 L	-3.9wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa620…ca56backed Flyers	61c	36$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.04	189	46%87 W · 102 L	-7.9wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0ee5…96c2backed Oilers	38c	36$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.68	197	45.2%89 W · 108 L	-9.3wins	-0.05per pick	50cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb3e4…d6b2backed Flyers	61c	36$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.04	418	51.4%215 W · 203 L	+14.6wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+8.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b2f…fe6cbacked Flyers	63c	31.75$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.75	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.10per pick	60cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Oilers	39c	30$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.7	740	54.5%403 W · 337 L	+22.6wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1941…c47fbacked Flyers	61c	30$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.7	106	52.8%56 W · 50 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0c2d…2570backed Flyers	61c	30$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.7	175	52%91 W · 84 L	+0.8wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc151…99e5backed Oilers	40c	25.25$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	67	34.3%23 W · 44 L	-5.2wins	-0.08per pick	42cpaid	-18.1%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd32d…3c32backed Oilers	40c	25.13$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	116	55.2%64 W · 52 L	+4.3wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb5e7…3c1abacked Flyers	60c	25$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	751	55.8%419 W · 332 L	+12.1wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8013…5b52backed Flyers	80c	25$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5	43	51.2%22 W · 21 L	+1.5wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5895…0b37backed Oilers	40c	25$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	126	43.7%55 W · 71 L	-7.4wins	-0.06per pick	50cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa204…e66fbacked Flyers	61c	24$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.36	147	46.9%69 W · 78 L	-5.9wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Flyers	62c	21.25$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.97	939	53.6%503 W · 436 L	+29.6wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe601…c728backed Flyers	61c	21$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.19	126	52.4%66 W · 60 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa408…d831backed Flyers	62c	20.66$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.85	76	59.2%45 W · 31 L	+5.8wins	+0.08per pick	52cpaid	+16.3%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1540…04e9backed Flyers	61c	20.57$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.02	20	50%10 W · 10 L	-0.8wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbda3…ef65backed Flyers	61c	20$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.8	49	53.1%26 W · 23 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x31ce…88cdbacked Flyers	61c	18$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.02	93	52.7%49 W · 44 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84fc…9db4backed Flyers	61c	18$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.02	95	48.4%46 W · 49 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb01…2783backed Flyers	61c	18$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.02	99	52.5%52 W · 47 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x96f4…8081backed Flyers	61c	18$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.02	90	53.3%48 W · 42 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8bdf…8adabacked Flyers	61c	18$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.02	94	51.1%48 W · 46 L	-1.8wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7cae…bf8abacked Flyers	61c	18$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.02	95	50.5%48 W · 47 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9adf…3f2fbacked Flyers	61c	18$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.02	98	52%51 W · 47 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf99a…5487backed Flyers	61c	18$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.02	102	50%51 W · 51 L	-3.0wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe9ea…810abacked Flyers	61c	18$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.02	209	42.6%89 W · 120 L	-12.0wins	-0.06per pick	48cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdcf7…bcbebacked Flyers	61c	18$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.02	75	54.7%41 W · 34 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd2dc…b3c5backed Flyers	61c	18$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.02	107	52.3%56 W · 51 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6b82…2d2abacked Flyers	61c	18$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.02	97	50.5%49 W · 48 L	-1.8wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd2a2…004abacked Flyers	61c	18$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.02	105	52.4%55 W · 50 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xea2e…d695backed Flyers	61c	18$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.02	90	53.3%48 W · 42 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4edd…b1a1backed Flyers	61c	18$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.02	91	52.7%48 W · 43 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe6df…22a9backed Flyers	61c	18$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.02	99	48.5%48 W · 51 L	-3.5wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: Oilers (-1.5)this page
Flyers vs. OilersFlyers won
Flyers vs. Oilers: O/U 6.5Over won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Oilers (-1.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event