Fifa International · resolved market
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ shots
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1fd04048daa0625133b2f16911411c9d42a8d3ed7203dd114cc08d013ad62006
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,172
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,090
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,172 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa3b8…3f4ebacked No | 44c | 775.74$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.33 | 61 | 62.3%38 W · 23 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe87f…eb3ebacked Yes | 56c | 700$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf1…294fbacked No | 47c | 501.75$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.29 | 210 | 51%107 W · 103 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd604…cb5fbacked No | 45c | 500.26$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.24 | 335 | 55.5%186 W · 149 L | +19.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Yes | 60c | 402.42$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.42 | 403 | 55.3%223 W · 180 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…8eafbacked Yes | 55c | 319.19$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.63 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…d7aebacked No | 41c | 310.3$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.22 | 165 | 64.2%106 W · 59 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa1…dba8backed Yes | 55c | 277.69$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.96 | 315 | 54.6%172 W · 143 L | +12.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 52c | 268$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.64 | 778 | 45%350 W · 428 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b7a…86cfbacked Yes | 56c | 199.99$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 234 | 29.1%68 W · 166 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa600…0fc5backed Yes | 65c | 114.47$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.47 | 171 | 58.5%100 W · 71 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde74…77abbacked No | 34c | 114.12$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.8 | 288 | 73.3%211 W · 77 L | +21.7wins | +0.08per pick | 66cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaf1a…ba1ebacked No | 40c | 111.17$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.47 | 343 | 57.7%198 W · 145 L | +26.2wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7d38…6f08backed No | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 572 | 52.4%300 W · 272 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb3…2d0ebacked Yes | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 89 | 36%32 W · 57 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 52c | 84.74$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.48 | 3,286 | 49.2%1,616 W · 1,670 L | +6.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4433…0c4bbacked Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac0c…739cbacked Yes | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 92 | 35.9%33 W · 59 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed No | 38c | 46.77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 470 | 49.4%232 W · 238 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dff…7fecbacked No | 44c | 40.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 139 | 56.8%79 W · 60 L | +9.8wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x653e…082ebacked Yes | 55c | 34.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.46 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2f…fe3fbacked Yes | 59c | 33.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.82 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d5e…b7e4backed No | 41c | 32.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87c8…7212backed Yes | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa882…e517backed Yes | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 164 | 42.1%69 W · 95 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bfc…26aebacked Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 58 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ shotsthis page
- Alex Baena: 1+ goalsNo won
- Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assistsNo won
- Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goalsNo won
- Bruno Fernandes: 1+ shotsYes won
- Bruno Fernandes: 2+ assistsNo won
- Bruno Fernandes: 2+ goalsNo won
- Bruno Fernandes: 2+ shotsNo won
- Bruno Fernandes: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ assistsNo won
- Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goalsNo won
- Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ shotsYes won
- Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ assistsNo won
- Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goalsNo won
- Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ shotsYes won
- Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ shots on targetYes won
- Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goalsNo won
- Cristiano Ronaldo: 4+ shotsNo won
- Cristiano Ronaldo: 5+ shotsNo won
- Cucurella: 1+ assistsNo won
- Dani Olmo: 1+ assistsNo won
- Dani Olmo: 1+ goalsNo won
- Ferrán Torres: 1+ goalsNo won
- Ferrán Torres: 2+ assistsNo won
- Ferrán Torres: 3+ goalsNo won
- Ferrán Torres: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- Gonçalo Ramos: 1+ goalsNo won
- Gonçalo Ramos: 3+ goalsNo won
- João Félix: 1+ assistsNo won
- João Félix: 1+ goalsNo won
- João Félix: 2+ goalsNo won
- João Félix: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- Lamine Yamal: 1+ assistsNo won
- Lamine Yamal: 1+ goalsNo won
- Lamine Yamal: 1+ shotsYes won
- Lamine Yamal: 2+ assistsNo won
- Lamine Yamal: 2+ goalsNo won
- Lamine Yamal: 3+ goalsNo won
- Lamine Yamal: 3+ shotsYes won
- Lamine Yamal: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- Lamine Yamal: 4+ shotsNo won
- Mikel Merino: 1+ goalsYes won
- Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ assistsNo won
- Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goalsNo won
- Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ shotsYes won
- Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ assistsNo won
- Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ goalsNo won
- Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ shotsYes won
- Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ goalsNo won
- Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ shotsNo won
- Mikel Oyarzabal: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- Nico Williams: 1+ goalsNo won
- Nico Williams: 3+ goalsNo won
- Nico Williams: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- Pedro Neto: 1+ shotsYes won
- Rafael Leão: 1+ goalsNo won
- Renato Veiga: 1+ assistsNo won
- Rodri: 1+ shotsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.