TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fifa International · resolved market

João Félix: 1+ goals

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$12,302
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$11,854

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,302 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb76a…9ac8backed Yes15c2,551$383 inLost-$382.623920.5%8 W · 31 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick19cpaid+21.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6bb3…758ebacked Yes14c1,800$250 inLost-$250.1611348.7%55 W · 58 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75a7…2d61backed Yes13c1,520$198 inLost-$197.6610328.2%29 W · 74 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick30cpaid+0.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xafac…8730backed Yes13c769.23$100 inLost-$1009219.6%18 W · 74 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-29.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbccb…6d3abacked Yes8c358.81$27 inLost-$27.471118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick13cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2843…b3d2backed Yes30c297$88 inLost-$88.421058.1%122 W · 88 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8ee…9e81backed Yes7c250$18 inLost-$17.51,79544.2%794 W · 1,001 L-12.9wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30b5…e5b1backed Yes17c235.64$40 inLost-$404839.6%19 W · 29 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-21.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5026…dde1backed Yes13c192.31$25 inLost-$257938%30 W · 49 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-13.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes14c158.43$21 inLost-$21.458,61429.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L-166.6wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x99fe…b61cbacked Yes17c147.06$25 inLost-$2513731.4%43 W · 94 L-4.5wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-26.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa5cf…e47fbacked Yes22c136.5$30 inLost-$305232.7%17 W · 35 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-26.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0f9…8739backed Yes15c133$20 inLost-$19.951323.1%3 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick16cpaid-55.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x118c…ae45backed Yes13c115.38$15 inLost-$1525115.5%39 W · 212 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick15cpaid+5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe944…d338backed Yes15c100$15 inLost-$157424.3%18 W · 56 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf30a…3583backed Yes13c100$13 inLost-$1316629.5%49 W · 117 L-8.6wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-26.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x53ab…65aabacked No77c99.37$77 inWon+$22.8511444.7%51 W · 63 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-12.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1356…d4f3backed Yes17c88.24$15 inLost-$153517.1%6 W · 29 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdac1…baddbacked No78c26.36$21 inWon+$5.831171.4%222 W · 89 L+15.4wins+0.05per pick66cpaid+5.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xaa81…aaf7backed No79c13.92$11 inWon+$2.929064.4%58 W · 32 L+11.7wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+38.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 58 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.