TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: EDward Gaming vs Ultra Prime - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
EDward Gamingof EDward Gaming, Ultra Prime
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$231,513
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$278,931

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $231,513 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 134 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6814…a9e7backed Ultra Prime0c50,221$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.1499338.6%383 W · 610 L-21.3wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-19.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf78…7736backed EDward Gaming78c25,175$19,748 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,426.516159%36 W · 25 L+5.9wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+26.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x54f0…6a27backed Ultra Prime0c24,000$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241030%3 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-21.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb03f…9429backed Ultra Prime1c10,180$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.9814324.5%35 W · 108 L-8.3wins-0.06per pick30cpaid-36.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6260…fccbbacked Ultra Prime0c6,050$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.836297%44 W · 585 L-2.2wins0.00per pick7cpaid-33.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Ultra Prime21c5,732$1,211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,211.411,63040.1%654 W · 976 L+48.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2aad…88d4backed Ultra Prime13c5,528$732 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$732.4228827.4%79 W · 209 L-30.6wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-33.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Ultra Prime20c3,321$669 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$669.412,82541.4%1,169 W · 1,656 L-14.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-4.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6be4…1f20backed Ultra Prime25c2,708$690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69052747.6%251 W · 276 L+9.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Ultra Prime18c2,476$442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$441.781,59234%541 W · 1,051 L-79.3wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-32.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Ultra Prime26c2,345$610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$609.821,82745.6%834 W · 993 L+26.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Ultra Prime18c2,299$425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$425.222,40642.6%1,026 W · 1,380 L+21.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2775…3652backed Ultra Prime7c2,293$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.476639.6%303 W · 463 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-15.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x969f…cbdcbacked Ultra Prime18c2,246$409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408.6118046.1%83 W · 97 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Ultra Prime21c1,672$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.912,90538.5%1,119 W · 1,786 L-118.5wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-27.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf743…1811backed Ultra Prime22c1,359$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.421134.6%73 W · 138 L-16.6wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-31.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0cd9…2a08backed Ultra Prime23c1,201$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.1339239%153 W · 239 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked Ultra Prime28c1,120$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.392,00458.2%1,166 W · 838 L+86.9wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4afb…ed2bbacked Ultra Prime24c1,000$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24011435.1%40 W · 74 L+0.5wins0.00per pick35cpaid+6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e3f…6941backed Ultra Prime25c1,000$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25039447.2%186 W · 208 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd507…a6ddbacked EDward Gaming72c967.33$696 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.8330035%105 W · 195 L-21.3wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-19.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1fa8…c667backed Ultra Prime24c963.84$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.926435.9%23 W · 41 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+11.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d5a…952fbacked Ultra Prime15c912.12$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.770%0 W · 7 L-2.7wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8384…1af4backed EDward Gaming73c847.57$620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.12560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+11.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16db…ac64backed Ultra Prime1c842.56$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2424323%56 W · 187 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-6.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Ultra Prime18c802.05$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.1882044%361 W · 459 L+0.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0257…22b2backed Ultra Prime20c800$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16084050.1%421 W · 419 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed Ultra Prime24c780$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.247533.3%158 W · 317 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+15.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed Ultra Prime10c764.71$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.11,07926%281 W · 798 L-99.0wins-0.09per pick35cpaid-46.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Ultra Prime23c744.53$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.8744843.8%196 W · 252 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c1b…de56backed Ultra Prime29c689.66$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2008943.8%39 W · 50 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+11.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Ultra Prime5c688.52$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.3515243.4%66 W · 86 L+7.5wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+22.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7b75…3fd1backed Ultra Prime20c635.44$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.4994134.5%325 W · 616 L+33.6wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e7c…164dbacked Ultra Prime23c600$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13844743.6%195 W · 252 L+1.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed Ultra Prime26c570.02$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.211,39943.7%612 W · 787 L-4.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Ultra Prime6c539$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.873,13133.8%1,058 W · 2,073 L-150.7wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-34.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Ultra Prime24c532.98$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.891,73144.2%765 W · 966 L-28.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x56fc…affbbacked Ultra Prime20c494$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.844751%228 W · 219 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f5c…9e02backed Ultra Prime26c492.69$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.113239.4%52 W · 80 L-12.2wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-27.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Ultra Prime26c470.81$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.481,25838.6%485 W · 773 L-61.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-20.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2e45…4b13backed EDward Gaming76c460.6$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.613171%93 W · 38 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick68cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc397…bb3bbacked Ultra Prime7c453.11$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.871,66359.5%990 W · 673 L+98.5wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+10.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb953…5393backed Ultra Prime11c434.99$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5057151.5%294 W · 277 L+14.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x006a…14edbacked Ultra Prime23c400$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9223754%128 W · 109 L-12.7wins-0.05per pick59cpaid-11.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6f84…202ebacked Ultra Prime24c400$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.2295847.6%456 W · 502 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid+2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5625…6c2abacked Ultra Prime20c391.5$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.9518542.2%78 W · 107 L-10.4wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-21.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc0c8…97b4backed EDward Gaming77c386.14$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.3267763.4%429 W · 248 L-16.4wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-3.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x755a…6da6backed Ultra Prime13c384.62$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5018633.3%62 W · 124 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x64a8…7bc3backed EDward Gaming70c346.52$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.5247953.2%255 W · 224 L-26.7wins-0.06per pick59cpaid-14.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb616…b9a1backed Ultra Prime29c344.83$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10027638.4%106 W · 170 L+10.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4cf4…b11abacked EDward Gaming72c335.11$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.835858.6%34 W · 24 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xae35…5dd3backed Ultra Prime8c333.34$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.2515731.8%50 W · 107 L-15.1wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-29.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x72be…c534backed Ultra Prime31c326$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001,11435%390 W · 724 L+14.3wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5809…9868backed Ultra Prime16c322.28$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.7997427.8%271 W · 703 L-23.1wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-28.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xad46…df49backed Ultra Prime28c300.24$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$856341.3%26 W · 37 L+3.7wins+0.06per pick35cpaid+23.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0362…2af9backed Ultra Prime18c300$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5355750.4%281 W · 276 L+0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ab9…361dbacked Ultra Prime28c285.71$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$803333.3%11 W · 22 L+3.5wins+0.10per pick23cpaid+91.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x12bc…bf2fbacked Ultra Prime14c281.35$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.5236040.6%146 W · 214 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-20.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Ultra Prime19c281.04$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.611,83117.1%313 W · 1,518 L-236.0wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-46%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x4a76…a671backed Ultra Prime5c279.23$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.876035%21 W · 39 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick36cpaid+3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf14…5d95backed Ultra Prime11c269.85$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.896627.3%18 W · 48 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-18.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x39c2…ae73backed Ultra Prime33c242.42$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-55.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1bf2…3b95backed Ultra Prime21c238.85$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5021956.6%124 W · 95 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-3.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x54e0…b02cbacked Ultra Prime8c236.6$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.091,13431%352 W · 782 L-7.8wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-15.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed EDward Gaming74c215$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.8148448.6%235 W · 249 L+12.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f3d…1f52backed Ultra Prime17c204.32$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.823953.8%21 W · 18 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+17.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8fd1…bfe8backed Ultra Prime30c200$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.7155639.6%220 W · 336 L+32.2wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+5.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2051…f9f1backed Ultra Prime33c197.52$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.9549253.5%263 W · 229 L-15.9wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-2.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3aff…c55ebacked Ultra Prime22c188.52$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.975952.5%31 W · 28 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb9a9…263cbacked Ultra Prime13c188.02$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.0813537%50 W · 85 L+6.2wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-0.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6c34…a023backed Ultra Prime20c180$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.56357.1%36 W · 27 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+19.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeef3…0547backed Ultra Prime28c178.57$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5032351.4%166 W · 157 L+14.0wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+12.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0b95…07e5backed Ultra Prime21c178.21$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.526025%15 W · 45 L-7.4wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-39.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed Ultra Prime13c177.19$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.991,72829.5%509 W · 1,219 L-123.2wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-39.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe889…6b5bbacked EDward Gaming76c169.36$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.651533.3%5 W · 10 L-4.0wins-0.26per pick60cpaid-47.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x2fcb…78cfbacked EDward Gaming72c163.23$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.764749.9%323 W · 324 L-24.9wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x19b6…ad8ebacked Ultra Prime13c158$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5446637.6%175 W · 291 L-19.5wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-17.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Ultra Prime15c157.65$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.412,67935.7%957 W · 1,722 L-153.5wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-32.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1816…2ee6backed Ultra Prime24c156.67$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.629240.8%119 W · 173 L-20.4wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-15.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7f24…9141backed Ultra Prime17c155$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.351136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-16.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb8b8…61dcbacked EDward Gaming74c139.98$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.452151.8%270 W · 251 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid+0.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ec3…34a7backed Ultra Prime21c139.91$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.7974250.5%375 W · 367 L-1.9wins0.00per pick51cpaid-11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9eea…2625backed Ultra Prime21c138.44$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.71968.4%13 W · 6 L+2.6wins+0.14per pick55cpaid+34.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5676…7da7backed Ultra Prime24c135.97$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.63450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+49.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5024…b8bcbacked EDward Gaming75c133.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.3321255.2%117 W · 95 L-11.4wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-12.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0bf8…03b2backed EDward Gaming76c131.09$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.0936752%191 W · 176 L-18.0wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-14%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe2e1…c20abacked Ultra Prime25c121$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.8630545.2%138 W · 167 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-15.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13ea…9a8cbacked Ultra Prime27c120$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.42142.9%9 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+30.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b45…ac9fbacked Ultra Prime25c120$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.5242250%211 W · 211 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x344b…f7fcbacked Ultra Prime25c120$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.7437345%168 W · 205 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-15.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x664b…17e0backed Ultra Prime13c115.38$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151097.3%8 W · 101 L-0.3wins0.00per pick8cpaid-16.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f16…b5b9backed Ultra Prime27c104.17$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.124337.2%16 W · 27 L-5.7wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-25.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7a73…a9c8backed EDward Gaming73c102.74$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.746852.9%36 W · 32 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa74a…4893backed Ultra Prime28c100.62$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.4144129.5%130 W · 311 L-45.9wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-48%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x8849…9a83backed EDward Gaming77c100.22$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.2239451%201 W · 193 L-14.1wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-6.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x179d…26abbacked Ultra Prime28c100$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2853829.9%161 W · 377 L-19.1wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-7.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2aa5…ff32backed Ultra Prime26c100$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261,22549.6%607 W · 618 L+15.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7635…63f6backed EDward Gaming74c100$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2645739.6%181 W · 276 L-37.5wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-27.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc141…ef2fbacked Ultra Prime26c99.98$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+78.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x13e5…1ea5backed Ultra Prime21c97.51$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.8619948.2%96 W · 103 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-15.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.