NBA · resolved market
Cavaliers vs. Raptors: O/U 235.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2034d634e0fa726fc2840b435118b3772b6eb65a697394cb3366eabc46f64b34
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $85,495
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $85,486
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $85,495 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5224…0de8backed Over | 47c | 65,368$30,762 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30,761.74 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 52c | 46,722$24,257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,465.06 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 56c | 19,654$10,920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,734.2 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd041…7b26backed Under | 57c | 5,263$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,263.16 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 44c | 4,737$2,088 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,088.26 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Under | 52c | 3,000$1,560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,440 | 762 | 49.5%377 W · 385 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56c6…f706backed Over | 46c | 2,543$1,170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,170 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Under | 52c | 2,115$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,015.2 | 698 | 52%363 W · 335 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…c94dbacked Under | 54c | 1,042$563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.32 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed Over | 44c | 936.36$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412 | 256 | 42.6%109 W · 147 L | -9.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 49c | 859.58$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.53 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 46c | 625$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.5 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 48c | 500$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd4…6ebcbacked Over | 51c | 500$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ce2…deabbacked Over | 48c | 478.91$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.6 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -4.6wins | -0.38per pick | 47cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…79f9backed Over | 44c | 370.87$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.64 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 50c | 314$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.66 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 56c | 263.57$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.6 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 49c | 255.23$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.25 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Under | 51c | 196.37$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.37 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Over | 44c | 150$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 354 | 47.7%169 W · 185 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 51c | 143$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.93 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa774…005fbacked Under | 51c | 140.71$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.4 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Over | 54c | 111$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.94 | 658 | 55.6%366 W · 292 L | +27.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66fe…e123backed Over | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 186 | 56.5%105 W · 81 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fde…66b2backed Under | 51c | 82.35$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.35 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51f6…368cbacked Over | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf782…8abbbacked Over | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +3.8wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x096a…dfa3backed Over | 44c | 54$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3543…c63fbacked Over | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 65 | 44.6%29 W · 36 L | -7.2wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -26%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ead…16d3backed Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd7f…0d6cbacked Under | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 44c | 23.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5779…168dbacked Under | 55c | 18.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 448 | 44.2%198 W · 250 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cavaliers vs. Raptors: O/U 235.5this page
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-0.5)Raptors won
- Cavaliers vs. RaptorsRaptors won
- Cavaliers vs. Raptors: 1H MoneylineRaptors won
- Cavaliers vs. Raptors: 1H O/U 114.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Raptors: 1H O/U 115.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Raptors: O/U 231.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Raptors: O/U 232.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Raptors: O/U 234.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Raptors: O/U 236.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Raptors: O/U 237.5Under won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-1.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5)Raptors won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.