NBA · resolved market
Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9d5607c2c26b8f4c95a0c4eca6e8b496f97b98cb44b7afe15bff938d508a3f75
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Raptorsof Cavaliers, Raptors
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,275
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,730
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,275 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Cavaliers | 45c | 16,418$7,351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,351.35 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4335…fc2fbacked Raptors | 57c | 13,226$7,539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,687.29 | 173 | 54.3%94 W · 79 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Cavaliers | 43c | 3,607$1,567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,566.55 | 698 | 52%363 W · 335 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Raptors | 58c | 3,027$1,759 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,268.15 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa849…c825backed Cavaliers | 43c | 3,000$1,290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,289.99 | 166 | 41%68 W · 98 L | -12.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd97c…aedbbacked Raptors | 57c | 2,807$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,206.87 | 184 | 52.7%97 W · 87 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f2…0234backed Raptors | 52c | 2,752$1,431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,321 | 176 | 58%102 W · 74 L | +13.5wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8640…93a3backed Cavaliers | 49c | 2,100$1,029 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,029 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -33%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x92db…4fabbacked Raptors | 51c | 2,100$1,071 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,029 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd4…6ebcbacked Raptors | 52c | 2,005$1,039 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$966.14 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Cavaliers | 49c | 2,004$982 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$981.96 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2c…d9c8backed Raptors | 51c | 1,961$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960.78 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0432…1660backed Cavaliers | 41c | 1,692$694 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$693.52 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Cavaliers | 48c | 987.62$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.62 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb542…1424backed Raptors | 51c | 862.75$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.75 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +26%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Raptors | 58c | 769.7$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.27 | 950 | 49.4%469 W · 481 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc87b…51d4backed Raptors | 67c | 745.59$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.59 | 210 | 55.2%116 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Cavaliers | 33c | 700$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Cavaliers | 44c | 675$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.48 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Cavaliers | 43c | 649.74$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.44 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe248…82a6backed Raptors | 52c | 576.92$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.92 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Cavaliers | 43c | 516.42$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.53 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…55f0backed Raptors | 52c | 500$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 346 | 45.7%158 W · 188 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ce…6f34backed Cavaliers | 48c | 410.42$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197 | 137 | 48.9%67 W · 70 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5515…451dbacked Raptors | 57c | 394.74$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.74 | 52 | 61.5%32 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fde…66b2backed Raptors | 52c | 392.31$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.31 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5b3…0476backed Raptors | 57c | 350.88$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.88 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Raptors | 51c | 346$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.87 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Cavaliers | 50c | 308$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbb…acb2backed Raptors | 51c | 277.36$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.91 | 890 | 50.4%449 W · 441 L | +4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Raptors | 56c | 267.86$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.86 | 660 | 46.8%309 W · 351 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9419…a40fbacked Raptors | 57c | 263.57$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.33 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -4.3wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Cavaliers | 50c | 206$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Cavaliers | 47c | 202.65$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.85 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1377…56aebacked Raptors | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Cavaliers | 47c | 176.48$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.94 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x261b…b32bbacked Raptors | 57c | 176.26$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.26 | 107 | 60.7%65 W · 42 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac68…4cf4backed Raptors | 58c | 164.48$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.08 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x387c…9188backed Raptors | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4209…7582backed Raptors | 57c | 157.89$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.89 | 332 | 35.5%118 W · 214 L | -27.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Cavaliers | 44c | 149.99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 354 | 47.7%169 W · 185 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f2…9b10backed Raptors | 51c | 146.75$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.75 | 79 | 53.2%42 W · 37 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…9498backed Raptors | 50c | 118.7$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.09 | 145 | 49%71 W · 74 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3c…ffc7backed Cavaliers | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 337 | 43.6%147 W · 190 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a3…d89bbacked Raptors | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 93 | 54.8%51 W · 42 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Cavaliers | 47c | 99.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 123 | 42.3%52 W · 71 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9da3…a7efbacked Raptors | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f1…f0e8backed Raptors | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 81 | 55.6%45 W · 36 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c54…f00ebacked Raptors | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 60 | 61.7%37 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83d3…a973backed Raptors | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 102 | 61.8%63 W · 39 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd4…ebc4backed Cavaliers | 50c | 86$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | -7.4wins | -0.14per pick | 38cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Cavaliers | 48c | 83$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.84 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked Cavaliers | 49c | 80$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 344 | 51.5%177 W · 167 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Raptors | 52c | 77$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.96 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52bd…1a8abacked Raptors | 57c | 70$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.1 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48f8…9166backed Cavaliers | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 171 | 45.6%78 W · 93 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…4a2cbacked Cavaliers | 41c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 319 | 47.6%152 W · 167 L | -18.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x895d…4970backed Cavaliers | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 126 | 46.8%59 W · 67 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc76…d76dbacked Cavaliers | 44c | 59.09$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Raptors | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 801 | 46.4%372 W · 429 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75aa…9f2abacked Cavaliers | 49c | 49.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Raptors | 49c | 48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.48 | 762 | 47.1%359 W · 403 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b5f…3269backed Raptors | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Raptors | 56c | 39.98$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.59 | 372 | 53.5%199 W · 173 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21b4…e064backed Cavaliers | 50c | 34.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 119 | 46.2%55 W · 64 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6abe…2205backed Cavaliers | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1f…4eebbacked Raptors | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 114 | 64.9%74 W · 40 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4e…8163backed Cavaliers | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Raptors | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Cavaliers | 49c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 876 | 47.5%416 W · 460 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Raptors | 50c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-0.5)Raptors won
- Cavaliers vs. RaptorsRaptors won
- Cavaliers vs. Raptors: 1H MoneylineRaptors won
- Cavaliers vs. Raptors: 1H O/U 114.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Raptors: 1H O/U 115.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Raptors: O/U 231.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Raptors: O/U 232.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Raptors: O/U 234.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Raptors: O/U 235.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Raptors: O/U 236.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Raptors: O/U 237.5Under won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-1.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5)Raptors won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.