NBA · resolved market
Cavaliers vs. Raptors: O/U 237.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4481fa2cbce98329a0a0a69de85ad6833034123369e66f7f1353953b427ddeb4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $94,415
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $95,986
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $94,415 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5224…0de8backed Over | 45c | 70,000$31,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31,499.98 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 55c | 50,470$27,613 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,856.86 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x617b…a499backed Under | 55c | 5,455$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,454.55 | 877 | 50.2%440 W · 437 L | -19.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Under | 55c | 3,637$2,004 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,632.54 | 483 | 47.2%228 W · 255 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Over | 52c | 3,333$1,733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,733.16 | 288 | 50.3%145 W · 143 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Under | 55c | 2,776$1,527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,248.98 | 927 | 53.5%496 W · 431 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Under | 58c | 2,249$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$949.13 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1912…686cbacked Over | 49c | 2,100$1,029 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,029 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a0…42a3backed Under | 51c | 2,100$1,071 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,029 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +4.4wins | +0.18per pick | 50cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Under | 55c | 2,058$1,132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$926.1 | 356 | 51.1%182 W · 174 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48a9…cd76backed Over | 42c | 1,600$672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$672 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +4.7wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x67f6…00f6backed Under | 58c | 1,600$928 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$672 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9519…3b2ebacked Under | 52c | 1,346$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$646.15 | 178 | 56.2%100 W · 78 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06ab…d376backed Over | 50c | 1,053$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.55 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 44c | 1,046$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.15 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…55f0backed Under | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510 | 346 | 45.7%158 W · 188 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d4…23e8backed Under | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 55c | 992$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.4 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed Under | 60c | 943$566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.2 | 256 | 42.6%109 W · 147 L | -9.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2cc…0cbcbacked Under | 48c | 845.33$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.57 | 155 | 45.8%71 W · 84 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25f4…20e0backed Under | 62c | 803.92$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.92 | 152 | 44.1%67 W · 85 L | -14.4wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 53c | 676$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.21 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 44c | 662.22$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.2 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 58c | 653.6$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.58 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43ab…b6ffbacked Under | 60c | 630.65$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.26 | 85 | 55.3%47 W · 38 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ce2…deabbacked Over | 44c | 622.78$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.79 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -4.6wins | -0.38per pick | 47cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5a81…aa82backed Under | 50c | 620$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +3.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 58c | 604$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.43 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda21…8646backed Over | 45c | 592.58$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.66 | 625 | 41.9%262 W · 363 L | -32.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Over | 41c | 473.11$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.21 | 285 | 37.9%108 W · 177 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x753b…3d0fbacked Under | 50c | 422.94$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.47 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe962…663abacked Over | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 843 | 42.9%362 W · 481 L | -39.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Under | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.16 | 1,661 | 50.3%836 W · 825 L | -14.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 36c | 320.29$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.3 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 47c | 318$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.95 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 55c | 315.46$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.98 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa763…709ebacked Under | 54c | 277$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.42 | 198 | 45.5%90 W · 108 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79fb…b4aebacked Under | 60c | 250$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1e…86d3backed Over | 47c | 250$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.5 | 278 | 40.6%113 W · 165 L | -22.5wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Under | 57c | 221.98$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.45 | 658 | 55.6%366 W · 292 L | +27.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f91…7c76backed Under | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6edb…6089backed Over | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 57c | 162.49$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.9 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32b3…67cdbacked Under | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Over | 39c | 150$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 354 | 47.7%169 W · 185 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79b3…ac50backed Under | 56c | 141.07$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Under | 60c | 110$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 612 | 53.1%325 W · 287 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8044…358ebacked Under | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 549 | 51.9%285 W · 264 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Over | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2de8…1121backed Under | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 909 | 57.6%524 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f1…f0e8backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 81 | 55.6%45 W · 36 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1749…797fbacked Under | 57c | 96.49$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d45…1ba7backed Under | 57c | 87.61$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.61 | 112 | 64.3%72 W · 40 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x591a…aec2backed Under | 59c | 80$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.8 | 94 | 52.1%49 W · 45 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…79f9backed Over | 45c | 68.77$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.09 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70df…bca8backed Under | 56c | 62.5$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 327 | 50.2%164 W · 163 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27ec…ad73backed Under | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 194 | 51.5%100 W · 94 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3b…3a8cbacked Over | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4e…dc93backed Over | 46c | 53.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.66 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Over | 42c | 51.86$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.53 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Under | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 801 | 46.4%372 W · 429 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3de6…405cbacked Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 434 | 53.2%231 W · 203 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Over | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50f7…7272backed Under | 59c | 36.7$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 39 | 69.2%27 W · 12 L | +5.6wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7795…1db8backed Under | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 199 | 57.8%115 W · 84 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd1…8f31backed Under | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 252 | 47.2%119 W · 133 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5dd…490bbacked Under | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 126 | 54.8%69 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62f5…e043backed Over | 44c | 26.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec54…a03dbacked Under | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 109 | 57.8%63 W · 46 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Under | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 955 | 48.5%463 W · 492 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cavaliers vs. Raptors: O/U 237.5this page
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-0.5)Raptors won
- Cavaliers vs. RaptorsRaptors won
- Cavaliers vs. Raptors: 1H MoneylineRaptors won
- Cavaliers vs. Raptors: 1H O/U 114.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Raptors: 1H O/U 115.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Raptors: O/U 231.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Raptors: O/U 232.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Raptors: O/U 234.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Raptors: O/U 235.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Raptors: O/U 236.5Under won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-1.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5)Raptors won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.