NBA · resolved market
Cavaliers vs. Raptors: O/U 236.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x08e2da3b3033da20469c27d43ba6cdecb83a5a995a83b7cef73face703fb1682
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $129,522
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $130,233
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $129,522 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5224…0de8backed Over | 47c | 100,000$47,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47,000 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 53c | 36,326$19,275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,050.84 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…c94dbacked Under | 53c | 31,709$16,806 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,903.19 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 43c | 11,495$4,940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,939.9 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Under | 56c | 8,553$4,791 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,761.96 | 927 | 53.5%496 W · 431 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Under | 54c | 5,492$2,957 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,534.52 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Under | 53c | 5,400$2,862 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,538 | 477 | 51.8%247 W · 230 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 57c | 4,707$2,679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,027.77 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Under | 53c | 4,500$2,385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,115 | 477 | 48.8%233 W · 244 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 57c | 3,477$1,992 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,484.94 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 49c | 2,526$1,248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,277.74 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ee…b3aabacked Under | 53c | 2,000$1,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$940 | 362 | 48.9%177 W · 185 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 44c | 1,733$765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$764.75 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 53c | 1,625$861 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$763.75 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Under | 57c | 1,500$855 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$645 | 180 | 47.8%86 W · 94 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 53c | 994$527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$467.18 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Under | 53c | 991$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.77 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Under | 53c | 829.08$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.67 | 356 | 51.1%182 W · 174 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…79f9backed Over | 44c | 554.98$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.21 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ce2…deabbacked Over | 46c | 548.14$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.25 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -4.6wins | -0.38per pick | 47cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 47c | 500$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…9871backed Under | 57c | 500$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215 | 228 | 46.1%105 W · 123 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cf2…a258backed Over | 48c | 300$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda21…8646backed Under | 57c | 300$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129 | 625 | 41.9%262 W · 363 L | -32.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91df…e5d7backed Under | 52c | 300$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Under | 57c | 300$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129 | 483 | 47.2%228 W · 255 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9738backed Under | 57c | 210.53$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.53 | 958 | 48.7%467 W · 491 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6077…f4f4backed Under | 45c | 204.44$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.44 | 94 | 48.9%46 W · 48 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…5bd8backed Under | 65c | 170.36$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.77 | 185 | 54.1%100 W · 85 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 49c | 161$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.89 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Over | 41c | 149.99$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.49 | 354 | 47.7%169 W · 185 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…1081backed Under | 53c | 141.51$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.51 | 94 | 57.4%54 W · 40 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa763…709ebacked Under | 57c | 130$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.9 | 198 | 45.5%90 W · 108 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50bb…9aa6backed Under | 53c | 125$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.75 | 119 | 51.3%61 W · 58 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd333…2a71backed Under | 54c | 102.2$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.2 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb1d…a925backed Over | 47c | 101.67$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.95 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Under | 45c | 99.19$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.93 | 222 | 43.7%97 W · 125 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b41…2c02backed Under | 79c | 89.59$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.81 | 91 | 35.2%32 W · 59 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb97c…a418backed Over | 46c | 76.38$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Under | 45c | 75$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.25 | 1,113 | 41.6%463 W · 650 L | -10.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 73c | 70.4$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.01 | 2,169 | 40.8%885 W · 1,284 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcfe…d420backed Under | 57c | 70.18$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 289 | 49.1%142 W · 147 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Over | 41c | 67.41$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.92 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Over | 42c | 50.76$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.57 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc87b…51d4backed Under | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 210 | 55.2%116 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3543…c63fbacked Over | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 65 | 44.6%29 W · 36 L | -7.2wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -26%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3552…f07bbacked Over | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 168 | 49.4%83 W · 85 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd4…ebc4backed Under | 57c | 43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | -7.4wins | -0.14per pick | 38cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7972…930fbacked Under | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | -12.3wins | -0.15per pick | 63cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3303…9266backed Under | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55be…a73abacked Under | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad87…f9a1backed Under | 54c | 37.34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.34 | 350 | 52%182 W · 168 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61be…5e3cbacked Under | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd7f…0d6cbacked Under | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x096a…dfa3backed Over | 44c | 36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 47c | 31.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 56c | 31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.64 | 226 | 56.6%128 W · 98 L | +13.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…4ab2backed Over | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 127 | 43.3%55 W · 72 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd9…00b1backed Under | 53c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 116 | 51.7%60 W · 56 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfea3…c0c3backed Under | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed Under | 65c | 21.19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.51 | 327 | 43.4%142 W · 185 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8777…66d0backed Under | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cavaliers vs. Raptors: O/U 236.5this page
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-0.5)Raptors won
- Cavaliers vs. RaptorsRaptors won
- Cavaliers vs. Raptors: 1H MoneylineRaptors won
- Cavaliers vs. Raptors: 1H O/U 114.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Raptors: 1H O/U 115.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Raptors: O/U 231.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Raptors: O/U 232.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Raptors: O/U 234.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Raptors: O/U 235.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Raptors: O/U 237.5Under won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-1.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5)Raptors won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.