NBA · resolved market
Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe0560a4b58f11798156e3f9920cfb1308ce0ef03309e8c48cd610af9c0cd0a69
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Raptorsof Cavaliers, Raptors
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,435
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,401
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,435 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Cavaliers | 42c | 5,294$2,244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,243.63 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Raptors | 55c | 3,333$1,833 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,499.85 | 288 | 50.3%145 W · 143 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdac…f7e2backed Raptors | 61c | 2,757$1,679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,078.25 | 191 | 36.1%69 W · 122 L | -15.3wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7432…d7d5backed Raptors | 61c | 2,400$1,457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$943 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7397…860cbacked Cavaliers | 39c | 1,709$674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$673.51 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa849…c825backed Cavaliers | 39c | 1,500$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585 | 166 | 41%68 W · 98 L | -12.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Raptors | 57c | 1,127$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.39 | 736 | 49.9%367 W · 369 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cavaliers | 42c | 1,120$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473.75 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda21…8646backed Cavaliers | 41c | 1,005$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.15 | 625 | 41.9%262 W · 363 L | -32.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Raptors | 59c | 976.2$571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.1 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Cavaliers | 33c | 887.6$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.77 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Raptors | 59c | 760.65$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.5 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…55f0backed Raptors | 56c | 500$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 346 | 45.7%158 W · 188 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Cavaliers | 43c | 429.38$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.78 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a7…b64dbacked Raptors | 60c | 220.73$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.29 | 139 | 53.2%74 W · 65 L | -7.1wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Cavaliers | 44c | 200.29$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.17 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Cavaliers | 49c | 196.08$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.08 | 285 | 37.9%108 W · 177 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…8117backed Raptors | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 204 | 44.6%91 W · 113 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Cavaliers | 44c | 189.59$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.42 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e79…ff8bbacked Raptors | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 174 | 56.9%99 W · 75 L | +10.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Raptors | 60c | 169.5$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.91 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Cavaliers | 40c | 149.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 354 | 47.7%169 W · 185 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8044…358ebacked Cavaliers | 45c | 145$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 549 | 51.9%285 W · 264 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Raptors | 56c | 140.4$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.78 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Raptors | 54c | 111$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.06 | 658 | 55.6%366 W · 292 L | +27.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc7…b89bbacked Raptors | 62c | 103.23$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.23 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0c…6825backed Raptors | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x06eb…1a5fbacked Raptors | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 101 | 67.3%68 W · 33 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Cavaliers | 48c | 98$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.04 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Cavaliers | 44c | 84$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.76 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Cavaliers | 41c | 73.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 762 | 47.1%359 W · 403 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Cavaliers | 44c | 66$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.04 | 1,109 | 41.8%464 W · 645 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x778d…8779backed Raptors | 61c | 65.57$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.57 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73a5…1633backed Raptors | 55c | 54.87$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.87 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd4…ebc4backed Raptors | 61c | 42$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.38 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | -7.4wins | -0.14per pick | 38cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Raptors | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 218 | 38.1%83 W · 135 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff4e…7036backed Raptors | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e8b…4f88backed Cavaliers | 46c | 23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed0…b051backed Raptors | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa747…28cebacked Cavaliers | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcda0…a51abacked Raptors | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 296 | 52.7%156 W · 140 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-0.5)Raptors won
- Cavaliers vs. RaptorsRaptors won
- Cavaliers vs. Raptors: 1H MoneylineRaptors won
- Cavaliers vs. Raptors: 1H O/U 114.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Raptors: 1H O/U 115.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Raptors: O/U 231.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Raptors: O/U 232.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Raptors: O/U 234.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Raptors: O/U 235.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Raptors: O/U 236.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Raptors: O/U 237.5Under won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-1.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5)Raptors won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.