NBA · resolved market
Spread: Cavaliers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6b7d26bf27a11c27eceaf8e028baa4fd844df0448664ce7890da21752e163914
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Raptorsof Cavaliers, Raptors
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,336
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,254
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,336 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Raptors | 48c | 4,415$2,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,294.53 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Raptors | 49c | 3,813$1,865 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,947.54 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Cavaliers | 52c | 3,333$1,733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,733.15 | 288 | 50.3%145 W · 143 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Cavaliers | 49c | 3,328$1,645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,645.4 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc782…70eabacked Cavaliers | 47c | 2,000$940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$940 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ee…b3aabacked Cavaliers | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 362 | 48.9%177 W · 185 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb482…e3ecbacked Raptors | 53c | 2,000$1,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$940 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +4.4wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Cavaliers | 47c | 1,326$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$629.69 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3de6…405cbacked Raptors | 50c | 1,206$603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$603 | 434 | 53.2%231 W · 203 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Cavaliers | 53c | 1,111$593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$593.01 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Cavaliers | 52c | 938.65$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.82 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb7…3893backed Cavaliers | 52c | 800$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa001…e07dbacked Raptors | 49c | 800$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0aa2…410dbacked Cavaliers | 51c | 799.99$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.99 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.14per pick | 59cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32f5…bc87backed Raptors | 48c | 799.99$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.99 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ef…cecebacked Raptors | 57c | 618.74$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.66 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa763…709ebacked Cavaliers | 52c | 400$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 198 | 45.5%90 W · 108 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Raptors | 48c | 397.48$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.76 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Raptors | 48c | 215$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.23 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6edb…6089backed Raptors | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Cavaliers | 53c | 169.81$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 366 | 49.5%181 W · 185 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5f…7e6fbacked Raptors | 49c | 167.35$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.35 | 324 | 50%162 W · 162 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Cavaliers | 47c | 150$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.5 | 354 | 47.7%169 W · 185 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed6…bbabbacked Cavaliers | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 328 | 53%174 W · 154 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Cavaliers | 47c | 97$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.59 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb375…59d6backed Raptors | 49c | 96.69$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.21 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Cavaliers | 47c | 74.47$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 377 | 55.7%210 W · 167 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0da5…5adfbacked Cavaliers | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 125 | 50.4%63 W · 62 L | -7.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1db9…a43bbacked Raptors | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x646c…3210backed Cavaliers | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | -7.2wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75aa…9f2abacked Cavaliers | 51c | 49.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Raptors | 55c | 37.44$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.85 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf9…fbc2backed Cavaliers | 54c | 37.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed Cavaliers | 44c | 36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 233 | 48.9%114 W · 119 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Cavaliers | 46c | 34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 1,028 | 48.5%499 W · 529 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfac…7c8fbacked Raptors | 47c | 33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40a6…a17ebacked Raptors | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 121 | 48.8%59 W · 62 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97f1…c325backed Cavaliers | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4e…dc93backed Raptors | 48c | 27.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.35 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ad…5a42backed Raptors | 53c | 22.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 84 | 52.4%44 W · 40 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed Raptors | 49c | 21.84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 327 | 43.4%142 W · 185 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Cavaliers | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 955 | 48.5%463 W · 492 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…701fbacked Cavaliers | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cavaliers (-1.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-0.5)Raptors won
- Cavaliers vs. RaptorsRaptors won
- Cavaliers vs. Raptors: 1H MoneylineRaptors won
- Cavaliers vs. Raptors: 1H O/U 114.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Raptors: 1H O/U 115.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Raptors: O/U 231.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Raptors: O/U 232.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Raptors: O/U 234.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Raptors: O/U 235.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Raptors: O/U 236.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Raptors: O/U 237.5Under won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5)Raptors won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.